{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,11]],"date-time":"2025-12-11T07:38:10Z","timestamp":1765438690793,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,26]],"date-time":"2021-01-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1611619200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"European Funds for Regional Development","award":["GY0012082"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GY0012082"]}]},{"name":"French Guianese Regional Health Agency","award":["no grant number"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["no grant number"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Aims: This study examines the dynamics of malaria as influenced by meteorological factors in French Guiana from 2005 to 2019. It explores spatial hotspots of malaria transmission and aims to determine the factors associated with variation of hotspots with time. Methods: Data for individual malaria cases came from the surveillance system of the Delocalized Centers for Prevention and Care (CDPS) (n = 17) from 2005\u20132019. Meteorological data was acquired from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) database. The Box\u2013Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model tested stationarity of the time series, and the impact of meteorological indices (issued from principal component analysis\u2014PCA) on malaria incidence was determined with a general additive model. Hotspot characterization was performed using spatial scan statistics. Results: The current sample includes 7050 eligible Plasmodium vivax (n = 4111) and Plasmodium falciparum (n = 2939) cases from health centers across French Guiana. The first and second PCA-derived meteorological components (maximum\/minimum temperature\/minimum humidity and maximum humidity, respectively) were significantly negatively correlated with total malaria incidence with a lag of one week and 10 days, respectively. Overall malaria incidence decreased across the time series until 2017 when incidence began to trend upwards. Hotspot characterization revealed a few health centers that exhibited spatial stability across the entire time series: Saint Georges de l\u2019Oyapock and Antecume Pata for P. falciparum, and Saint Georges de l\u2019Oyapock, Antecume Pata, R\u00e9gina and Camopi for P. vivax. Conclusions: This study highlighted changing malaria incidence in French Guiana and the influences of meteorological factors on transmission. Many health centers showed spatial stability in transmission, albeit not temporal. Knowledge of the areas of high transmission as well as how and why transmission has changed over time can inform strategies to reduce the transmission of malaria in French Guiana. Hotspots should be further investigated to understand other influences on local transmission, which will help to facilitate elimination.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18031077","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,26]],"date-time":"2021-01-26T08:29:16Z","timestamp":1611649756000},"page":"1077","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in French Guiana: 2005\u20132019"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Jenna","family":"Scully","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6004-3323","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emilie","family":"Mosnier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, Cayenne Hospital, 97306 Cayenne, French Guiana"},{"name":"INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, Health Economics &amp; Social Sciences &amp; Health Information Processing, Aix Marseille University, 13385 Marseille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aurel","family":"Carbunar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Delocalized Prevention and Care Centers, Cayenne Hospital, 97306 Cayenne, French Guiana"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2266-8207","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emmanuel","family":"Roux","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ESPACE-DEV (IRD, University of Reunion Island, University of the West Indies, University of French Guiana, University of Montpellier), 34000 Montpellier, France"},{"name":"LMI Sentinela, International Joint Laboratory \u2018Sentinela\u2019 (Fiocruz, UnB, IRD), Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21040-900, Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"F\u00e9lix","family":"Djossou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious and Tropical Disease Unit, Cayenne Hospital, 97306 Cayenne, French Guiana"},{"name":"Amazonian Ecosystems and Tropical Diseases, EA3593, University of French Guiana, 97300 Cayenne, French Guiana"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nicolas","family":"Gar\u00e7eran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Delocalized Prevention and Care Centers, Cayenne Hospital, 97306 Cayenne, French Guiana"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lise","family":"Musset","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Parasitology Laboratory, Malaria National Reference Center, French Guiana Pasteur Institute, 97300 Cayenne, French Guiana"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alice","family":"Sanna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"French Guiana Regional Health Agency, 97306 Cayenne, French Guiana"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Magalie","family":"Demar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Parasitology &amp; Mycology Laboratory, Cayenne Hospital, 97306 Cayenne, French Guiana"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9397-3204","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mathieu","family":"Nacher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"French Guiana and West Indies Clinical Investigation Center-INSERM 1424, Cayenne Hospital, 97306 Cayenne, French Guiana"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9006-5729","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jean","family":"Gaudart","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aix Marseille University, IRD, INSERM, APHM, La Timone Hospital, Biostatistics and ICT, 13385 Marseille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"WHO (2019). World Malaria Report 2019, World Health Organization."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Institut National de la Statistique et des \u00c9tudes \u00c9conomiques (INSEE) (2019, June 11). National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. Available online: https:\/\/www.insee.fr."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-02760170398","article-title":"Successes and failures of sixty years of vector control in French Guiana","volume":"113","author":"Epelboin","year":"2018","journal-title":"Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Douine, M., Musset, L., Corlin, F., Pelleau, S., Pasquier, J., Mutricy, L., Adenis, A., Djossou, F., Brousse, P., and Perotti, F. (2016). Prevalence of Plasmodium spp. in illegal gold miners in French Guiana in 2015: A hidden but critical malaria reservoir. Malar. J., 15.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-016-1367-6"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-8-278","article-title":"Determination of the Plasmodium vivax relapse pattern in Camopi, French Guiana","volume":"8","author":"Hanf","year":"2009","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.19-0378","article-title":"Prevalence of Plasmodium spp. in the Amazonian Border Context (French Guiana\u2013Brazil): Associated factors and spatial distribution","volume":"102","author":"Mosnier","year":"2020","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2202.151292","article-title":"Malaria in French Guiana linked to illegal gold mining","volume":"22","author":"Dia","year":"2016","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-015-0849-2","article-title":"Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: A systematic review","volume":"14","author":"Reiner","year":"2015","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"(2019, June 03). Climate\u2014French Guiana. Available online: https:\/\/www.climatestotravel.com\/climate\/french-guiana."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Adde, A., Roux, E., Mangeas, M., Dessay, N., Nacher, M., Dusfour, I., Girod, R., and Briolant, S. (2016). Dynamical mapping of Anopheles darlingi densities in a residual malaria transmission area of French Guiana by using remote sensing and meteorological data. PLoS ONE, 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0164685"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"750","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-02760160272","article-title":"Anopheles fauna of coastal Cayenne, French Guiana: Modelling and mapping of species presence using remotely sensed land cover data","volume":"111","author":"Adde","year":"2016","journal-title":"Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Roux, E., Gaborit, P., Roma\u00f1a, C.A., Girod, R., Dessay, N., and Dusfour, I. (2013). Objective sampling design in a highly heterogeneous landscape\u2014characterizing environmental determinants of malaria vector distribution in French Guiana, in the Amazonian region. BMC Ecol., 13.","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-6785-13-45"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7077","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-25344-5","article-title":"Abundance of impacted forest patches less than 5\u2009km2 is a key driver of the incidence of malaria in Amazonian Brazil","volume":"8","author":"Chaves","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Souza, P.F., Xavier, D.R., Suarez Mutis, M.C., da Mota, J.C., Peiter, P.C., de Matos, V.P., de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalh\u00e3es, M., and Barcellos, C. (2019). Spatial spread of malaria and economic frontier expansion in the Brazilian Amazon. PLoS ONE, 14.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0217615"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gaudart, J., Poudiougou, B., Dicko, A., Ranque, S., Toure, O., Sagara, I., Diallo, M., Diawara, S., Ouattara, A., and Diakite, M. (2006). Space-time clustering of childhood malaria at the household level: A dynamic cohort in a Mali village. BMC Public Health, 6.","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-6-286"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stern, D.I., Gething, P.W., Kabaria, C.W., Temperley, W.H., Noor, A.M., Okiro, E.A., Shanks, G.D., Snow, R.W., and Hay, S.I. (2011). Temperature and malaria trends in highland East Africa. PLoS ONE, 6.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0024524"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-53814-x","article-title":"Spatio-temporal analysis of association between incidence of malaria and environmental predictors of malaria transmission in Nigeria","volume":"9","author":"Okunlola","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"Amy McNally NASA, GSFC, and HSL (2018). FLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Global Monthly 0.1 \u00d7 0.1 Degree (MERRA-2 and CHIRPS), Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)."},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Huffman, G.J., Stocker, E.F., Bolvin, D.T., Nelkin, E.J., and Tan, J. (2019). GPM IMERG Final Precipitation L3 1 Month 0.1 Degree \u00d7 0.1 Degree V06, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"387","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2019.00387","article-title":"Teledermatology use in remote areas of French Guiana: Experience from a long-running system","volume":"7","author":"Messagier","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"(2020, November 04). Guyane. Available online: https:\/\/www.guyane.ars.sante.fr\/."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1481","DOI":"10.1080\/03610929708831995","article-title":"A spatial scan statistic","volume":"26","author":"Kulldorff","year":"1997","journal-title":"Commun. Stat. Theory Methods"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hiwat, H., Hardjopawiro, L.S., Takken, W., and Villegas, L. (2012). Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America. Malar. J., 11.","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-11-10"},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"Plan de lute Contre le Paludisme en Guyane (2015). Controle du Paludisme sur L\u2019ensemble du Territoire 2015\u20132018, Agence Regionale de Sante Guyane."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Douine, M., Mosnier, E., Le Hingrat, Q., Charpentier, C., Corlin, F., Hureau, L., Adenis, A., Lazrek, Y., Niemetsky, F., and Aucouturier, A. (2017). Illegal gold miners in French Guiana: A neglected population with poor health. BMC Public Health, 18.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-017-4557-4"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-018-2306-5","article-title":"Malakit: An innovative pilot project to self-diagnose and self-treat malaria among illegal gold miners in the Guiana Shield","volume":"17","author":"Douine","year":"2018","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mosnier, E., Dusfour, I., Lacour, G., Saldanha, R., Guidez, A., Gomes, M.S., Sanna, A., Epelboin, Y., Restrepo, J., and Davy, D. (2020). Resurgence risk for malaria, characterization of a recent outbreak in a Amazonian border area\u2014French Guiana\/Brazil. BMC Infect. Dis., in review.","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-16296\/v1"},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Pan American Health Organization, and World Health Organization (2018). Epidemiological Alert: Increase of Malaria in the Americas, PAHO\/WHO2018."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Laneri, K., Bhadra, A., Ionides, E.L., Bouma, M., Dhiman, R.C., Yadav, R.S., and Pascual, M. (2010). Forcing versus feedback: Epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India. PLoS Comput. Biol., 6.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1000898"},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"238","article-title":"Relationship between malaria infection intensity and rainfall pattern in Entebbe peninsula, Uganda","volume":"5","author":"Ssegwanyi","year":"2005","journal-title":"Afr. Health Sci."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2011.10-0381","article-title":"Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana","volume":"84","author":"Krefis","year":"2011","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-014-0489-3","article-title":"Temperature during larval development and adult maintenance influences the survival of Anopheles gambiae s.s","volume":"7","author":"Parham","year":"2014","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"364","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-016-1411-6","article-title":"Modelling the influence of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis","volume":"15","author":"Abiodun","year":"2016","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-9-125","article-title":"Towards malaria risk prediction in Afghanistan using remote sensing","volume":"9","author":"Adimi","year":"2010","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-018-2280-y","article-title":"Spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 2011\u20132015","volume":"17","author":"Ouedraogo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1007\/s13149-017-0572-z","article-title":"Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and vivax infection in the neighborhood of Blondin, Saint-Georges-de-l\u2019Oyapock District, French Guiana","volume":"110","author":"Mosnier","year":"2017","journal-title":"Bull. Soc. Pathol. Exot. (1990)"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/18\/3\/1077\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T05:15:26Z","timestamp":1760159726000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/18\/3\/1077"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,26]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph18031077"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph18031077","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1660-4601"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,26]]}}}