{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T20:36:57Z","timestamp":1787949417773,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,16]],"date-time":"2021-04-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1618531200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: Dengue fever is one of the most important arboviral diseases. Surface temperature versus dengue burden in tropical environments can provide valuable information that can be adapted in future measurements to improve health policies. Methods: A methodological approach using Daymet-V3 provided estimates of daily weather parameters. A Python code developed by us extracted the median temperature from the urban regions of Colima State (207.3 km2) in Mexico. JointPoint regression models computed the mean temperature-adjusted average annual percentage of change (AAPC) in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (per 100,000) due to dengue in Colima State among school-aged (5\u201314 years old) children. Results: Primary outcomes were average temperature in urban areas and cumulative dengue burden in DALYs in the school-aged population. A model from 1990 to 2017 medium surface temperature with DALY rates was performed. The increase in DALYs rate was 64% (95% CI, 44\u201387%), and it seemed to depend on the 2000\u20132009 estimates (AAPC = 185%, 95% CI 18\u2013588). Conclusion: From our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate surface temperature and to model it through an extensive period with health economics calculations in a specific subset of the Latin-American endemic population for dengue epidemics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18084230","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,16]],"date-time":"2021-04-16T10:20:11Z","timestamp":1618568411000},"page":"4230","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["The Burden of Dengue in Children by Calculating Spatial Temperature: A Methodological Approach Using Remote Sensing Techniques"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9614-4946","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Oliver","family":"Mendoza-Cano","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatl\u00e1n, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatl\u00e1n 28400, Colima, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pedro","family":"Rinc\u00f3n-Avalos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatl\u00e1n, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatl\u00e1n 28400, Colima, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Verity","family":"Watson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Abdou","family":"Khouakhi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Water, Energy and Environment, Centre for Environmental and Agricultural Informatics, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8230-6414","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jes\u00fas L\u00f3pez-de la","family":"Cruz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatl\u00e1n, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatl\u00e1n 28400, Colima, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Angelica Patricia","family":"Ruiz-Montero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatl\u00e1n, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatl\u00e1n 28400, Colima, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cynthia Monique","family":"Nava-Garibaldi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Dr, Madison, WI 53706, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mario","family":"Lopez-Rojas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatl\u00e1n, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatl\u00e1n 28400, Colima, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1118-498X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Efr\u00e9n","family":"Murillo-Zamora","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Epidemiolog\u00eda, Unidad de Medicina Familiar No. 19, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Av. Javier Mina 301, Col. Centro, Colima 28000, Colima, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1508","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0476-8","article-title":"The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue","volume":"4","author":"Messina","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Microbiol."},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"197","article-title":"Dimensiones culturales del dengue que favorecen o dificultan su prevenci\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico","volume":"31","author":"Cordero","year":"2012","journal-title":"Rev. Panam. Salud Publica\/Pan Am. J. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Acharya, B.K., Cao, C., Xu, M., Khanal, L., Naeem, S., and Pandit, S. (2018). Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph15020187"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Naish, S., Dale, P., Mackenzie, J.S., McBride, J., Mengersen, K., and Tong, S. (2014). Climate change and dengue: A critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches. BMC Infect. Dis., 14.","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-14-167"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1264","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.1306556","article-title":"Climate and Dengue Transmission: Evidence and Implications","volume":"121","author":"Morin","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-019-0565-1","article-title":"Impact of past and on-going changes on climate and weather on vector-borne diseases transmission: A look at the evidence","volume":"8","author":"Fouque","year":"2019","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Poverty"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1066","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.13-0321","article-title":"The Complex Relationship between Weather and Dengue Virus Transmission in Thailand","volume":"89","author":"Campbell","year":"2013","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_8","first-page":"21748","article-title":"Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa","volume":"3","author":"Mweya","year":"2013","journal-title":"Infect. Ecol. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"32322","article-title":"Ecological niche modelling of Rift Valley fever virus vectors in Baringo, Kenya","volume":"6","author":"Ochieng","year":"2016","journal-title":"Infect. Ecol. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mweya, C.N., Kimera, S.I., Stanley, G., Misinzo, G., and Mboera, L.E.G. (2016). Climate Change Influences Potential Distribution of Infected Aedes aegypti Co-Occurrence with Dengue Epidemics Risk Areas in Tanzania. PLoS ONE, 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0162649"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20604","DOI":"10.1038\/srep20604","article-title":"Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination","volume":"6","author":"Ren","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20140135","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2014.0135","article-title":"Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors","volume":"370","author":"Campbell","year":"2015","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"514","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1239401","article-title":"Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework","volume":"341","author":"Altizer","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2016.07.026","article-title":"Dengue in a changing climate","volume":"151","author":"Ebi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Environ. Res."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/jvec.12187","article-title":"Effects of temperature on the life cycle, expansion, and dispersion of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in three cities in Paraiba, Brazil","volume":"41","author":"Marinho","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Vector Ecol."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"496","DOI":"10.1603\/ME13214","article-title":"The impact of temperature on the bionomics of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, with special reference to the cool geographic range margins","volume":"51","author":"Eisen","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e08347","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.08347","article-title":"The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus","volume":"4","author":"Kraemer","year":"2015","journal-title":"eLife"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25929","DOI":"10.3402\/gha.v8.25929","article-title":"Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania","volume":"8","author":"Mweya","year":"2015","journal-title":"Glob. Health Action"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bmhime.2016.06.003","article-title":"Clinical profile of dengue and predictive severity variables among children at a secondary care hospital of Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico: Case series","volume":"73","author":"Andersson","year":"2016","journal-title":"Bolet\u00edn M\u00e9dico Del Hosp. Infant. M\u00e9xico (Engl. Ed.)"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hern\u00e1ndez-Su\u00e1rez, C.M., and Mendoza-Cano, O. (2016). Empirical evidence of the effect of school gathering on the dynamics of dengue epidemics. Glob. Health Action, 9.","DOI":"10.3402\/gha.v9.28026"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dhar-Chowdhury, P., Paul, K.K., Haque, C.E., Hossain, S., Lindsay, L.R., Dibernardo, A., Brooks, W.A., and Drebot, M.A. (2017). Dengue seroprevalence, seroconversion and risk factors in Dhaka, Bangladesh. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005475"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.2217\/fvl.09.55","article-title":"Global spread of epidemic dengue: The influence of environmental change","volume":"4","author":"Ooi","year":"2009","journal-title":"Future Virol."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4784","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2019.01.031","article-title":"Capturing the true burden of Shigella and ETEC: The way forward","volume":"37","author":"Khalil","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1452","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)60671-0","article-title":"Burden of symptomatic dengue infection in children at primary school in Thailand: A prospective study","volume":"369","author":"Anderson","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bhavsar, A., Tam, C.C., Garg, S., Jammy, G.R., Taurel, A.-F., Chong, S.-N., and Nealon, J. (2019). Estimated dengue force of infection and burden of primary infections among Indian children. BMC Public Health, 19.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-019-7432-7"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2019.01.033","article-title":"Incidence of dengue illness among children in an urban setting in South India: A population based study","volume":"84","author":"Rose","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Nriagu, J.B.T.-E. (2019). Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Approach and the Use of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) at the World Health Organization (WHO), Elsevier. [2nd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Thornton, P.E., Thornton, M.M., Mayer, B.W., Wei, Y., Devarakonda, R., Vose, R.S., and Cook, R.B. (2016). Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 3."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"INEGI (2021, April 14). National Intercensal Survey. 2015, Recovered 09 September 2020. Available online: https:\/\/www.inegi.org.mx\/programas\/intercensal\/2015\/."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2017.06.031","article-title":"Google Earth Engine: Planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone","volume":"202","author":"Gorelick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Rosenberg, D. (1997). Trend Analysis and Interpretation. Key Concepts and Methods for Maternal and Child Health Professionals."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gillis, D., and Edwards, B.P.M. (2019). The utility of joinpoint regression for estimating population parameters given changes in population structure. Heliyon, 5.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2019.e02515"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"292","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2014.12.010","article-title":"An example of the usefulness of joinpoint trend analysis for assessing changes in traffic safety policies","volume":"75","author":"Barrio","year":"2015","journal-title":"Accid. Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"579","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP218","article-title":"An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States","volume":"125","author":"Butterworth","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.2149\/tmh.2014-12","article-title":"Scientific Productivity on Research in Ethical Issues over the Past Half Century: A JoinPoint Regression Analysis","volume":"42","author":"Long","year":"2014","journal-title":"Trop. Med. Health"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(13)70232-7","article-title":"Mortality trends in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Europe, 1994-2010: A joinpoint regression analysis","volume":"2","author":"Soriano","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet. Respir. Med."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2018.05.003","article-title":"Modeling Dengue vector population using remotely sensed data and machine learning","volume":"185","author":"Scavuzzo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Acta Trop."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1080\/01431160902865756","article-title":"Dengue vector (Aedes aegypti) larval habitats in an urban environment of Costa Rica analysed with ASTER and QuickBird imagery","volume":"31","author":"Fuller","year":"2010","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"732","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi3020732","article-title":"Correlating Remote Sensing Data with the Abundance of Pupae of the Dengue Virus Mosquito Vector, Aedes aegypti, in Central Mexico","volume":"3","author":"Crosson","year":"2014","journal-title":"ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf."},{"key":"ref_40","first-page":"75","article-title":"Sistemas de informaci\u00f3n geogr\u00e1fica y sensores remotos: Aplicaciones enenfermedades transmitidas por vectores","volume":"24","year":"2010","journal-title":"CES Med."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Goindin, D., Delannay, C., Ramdini, C., Gustave, J., and Fouque, F. (2015). Parity and longevity of Aedes aegypti according to temperatures in controlled conditions and consequences on dengue transmission risks. PLoS ONE, 10.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0135489"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2012.05.009","article-title":"Dengue, urbanization and globalization: The unholy trinity of the 21st century","volume":"16","author":"Gubler","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2224","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2008.11.034","article-title":"Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan","volume":"407","author":"Wu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"418","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1215735","article-title":"Monitoring EU Emerging Infectious Disease Risk Due to Climate Change","volume":"336","author":"Lindgren","year":"2012","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_45","first-page":"909","article-title":"The American Heritage medical dictionary","volume":"xxxii","author":"Dictionary","year":"2007","journal-title":"Med. Dict."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tjaden, N.B., Thomas, S.M., Fischer, D., and Beierkuhnlein, C. (2013). Extrinsic Incubation Period of Dengue: Knowledge, Backlog, and Applications of Temperature Dependence. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 7.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002207"},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2915.2009.00848.x","article-title":"Modelling the effect of temperature on transmission of dengue","volume":"24","author":"Barbazan","year":"2010","journal-title":"Med. Vet. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Siraj, A.S., Oidtman, R.J., Huber, J.H., Kraemer, M.U.G., Brady, O.J., Johansson, M.A., and Perkins, T.A. (2017). Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005797"},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"888","DOI":"10.1890\/08-0079.1","article-title":"The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases","volume":"90","author":"Lafferty","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beck-Johnson, L.M., Nelson, W.A., Paaijmans, K.P., Read, A.F., Thomas, M.B., and Bj\u00f8rnstad, O.N. (2013). The Effect of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Population Dynamics and the Potential for Malaria Transmission. PLoS ONE, 8.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0079276"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/18\/8\/4230\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T05:48:51Z","timestamp":1760161731000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/18\/8\/4230"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,16]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,4]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph18084230"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph18084230","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1660-4601","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,16]]}}}