{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T04:23:54Z","timestamp":1772252634607,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,26]],"date-time":"2021-05-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1621987200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Malaria is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Mozambique, which has the fifth highest prevalence in the world. Sussundenga District in Manica Province has documented high P. falciparum incidence at the local rural health center (RHC). This study\u2019s objective was to analyze the P. falciparum temporal variation and model its pattern in Sussundenga District, Mozambique. Data from weekly epidemiological bulletins (BES) was collected from 2015 to 2019 and a time-series analysis was applied. For temporal modeling, a Box-Jenkins method was used with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Over the study period, 372,498 cases of P. falciparum were recorded in Sussundenga. There were weekly and yearly variations in incidence overall (p &lt; 0.001). Children under five years had decreased malaria tendency, while patients over five years had an increased tendency. The ARIMA (2,2,1) (1,1,1) 52 model presented the least Root Mean Square being the most appropriate for forecasting. The goodness of fit was 68.15% for malaria patients less than five years old and 73.2% for malaria patients over five years old. The findings indicate that cases are decreasing among individuals less than five years and are increasing slightly in those older than five years. The P. falciparum case occurrence has a weekly temporal pattern peaking during the wet season. Based on the spatial and temporal distribution using ARIMA modelling, more efficient strategies that target this seasonality can be implemented to reduce the overall malaria burden in both Sussundenga District and regionally.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18115692","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,26]],"date-time":"2021-05-26T10:30:32Z","timestamp":1622025032000},"page":"5692","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Malaria Temporal Variation and Modelling Using Time-Series in Sussundenga District, Mozambique"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3543-6459","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jo\u00e3o L.","family":"Ferr\u00e3o","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instiuto Superior de Ci\u00eancias de Educa\u00e7\u00e3o, Beira 2102, Mozambique"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Dominique","family":"Earland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"An\u00edsio","family":"Novela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Direc\u00e7\u00e3o Distrital de Sa\u00fade de Sussundenga, Sussundenga 2207, Mozambique"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8912-2722","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roberto","family":"Mendes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Informa\u00e7\u00e3o Geogr\u00e1fica-Faculdade de Economia da UCM, Beira 2102, Mozambique"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alberto","family":"Tungadza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculdade de Ci\u00eancia de Sa\u00fade da UCM, Beira 2102, Mozambique"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kelly M.","family":"Searle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2020, July 02). 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