{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T13:43:25Z","timestamp":1792071805482,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,19]],"date-time":"2021-06-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1624060800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a cancer that is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Although asbestos is no longer used in South Korea, the incidence of MM continues to increase due to its long latent period. We aimed to update the previous prediction of MM incidence until 2038. We predicted the incidence of MM over the next 20 years (2019\u20132038) in South Korea using M\u00f8ller\u2019s age\u2013period\u2013cohort (APC) model and a Poisson regression model based on asbestos consumption. The APC model predicted that the crude incidence rate would increase sharply in men and slowly in women. Despite the sex discrepancy in the rate of increase, the incidence rate for both sexes is expected to continue increasing until 2038. In the Poisson model, the crude incidence rate was predicted to increase continuously until 2038, and far more cases of MM were predicted to occur compared with the results of the APC model. When compared with actual incidence data, the APC model was deemed more suitable than the Poisson model. The APC model predicted a continuous increase over the next 20 years with no peak, suggesting that the incidence of MM will continue to rise far into the future.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18126614","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,20]],"date-time":"2021-06-20T22:00:02Z","timestamp":1624226402000},"page":"6614","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6296-8058","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kyeongmin","family":"Kwak","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan 15355, Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4085-1494","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sung-il","family":"Cho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea"},{"name":"Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4510-6362","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Domyung","family":"Paek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea"},{"name":"Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"491","article-title":"Malignant pleural mesothelioma: An epidemiological perspective","volume":"1","author":"Robinson","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ann. Cardiothorac. Surg."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.2486\/indhealth.45.379","article-title":"Malignant Mesothelioma: Global Incidence and Relationship with Asbestos","volume":"4","author":"Bianchi","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ind. Health"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1179\/oeh.2008.14.1.18","article-title":"Trends in Occupational Asbestos Exposure and Asbestos Consumption over Recent Decades in Korea","volume":"14","author":"Park","year":"2008","journal-title":"Int. J. Occup. Environ. Health"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kwak, K.M., Paek, D., Hwang, S.-S., and Ju, Y.-S. (2017). Estimated future incidence of malignant mesothelioma in South Korea: Projection from 2014 to 2033. PLoS ONE, 12.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0183404"},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"(2020). Global Health Estimates 2020: Disease Burden by Cause, Age, Sex, by Country and by Region, 2000\u20132019, World Health Organization. Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/data\/themes\/mortality-and-global-health-estimates\/global-health-estimates-leading-causes-of-dalys."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Health and Safety Executive (HSE) (2021, May 18). RR1074 Costs to Britain of Work-Related Cancer, Available online: http:\/\/www.hse.gov.uk\/research\/rrhtm\/rr1074.htm."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Furuya, S., Chimed-Ochir, O., Takahashi, K., David, A., and Takala, J. (2018). Global Asbestos Disaster. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 15.","DOI":"10.20944\/preprints201804.0178.v1"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"535","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(95)90462-X","article-title":"Continuing increase in mesothelioma mortality in Britain","volume":"345","author":"Peto","year":"1995","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"760","DOI":"10.1136\/oem.55.11.760","article-title":"Estimation of the past and future burden of mortality from mesothelioma in France","volume":"55","author":"Ilg","year":"1998","journal-title":"Occup. Environ. Med."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112","DOI":"10.5271\/sjweh.520","article-title":"Incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and predicted future number of cases among men","volume":"26","author":"Andersson","year":"2000","journal-title":"Scand. J. Work. Environ. Health"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1136\/oem.60.1.50","article-title":"Update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands","volume":"60","author":"Segura","year":"2003","journal-title":"Occup. Environ. Med."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh025","article-title":"Mesothelioma Trends in the United States: An Update Based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program Data for 1973 through 2003","volume":"159","author":"Price","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1136\/oem.2007.034769","article-title":"Mesothelioma mortality in men: Trends during 1977\u20132001 and projections for 2002\u20132016 in Spain","volume":"65","author":"Pitarque","year":"2008","journal-title":"Occup. Environ. Med."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1136\/oemed-2016-103652","article-title":"Incidence of mesothelioma in Lombardy, Italy: Exposure to asbestos, time patterns and future projections","volume":"73","author":"Mensi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Occup. Environ. Med."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1539\/joh.41.8","article-title":"Ecological Relationship between Mesothelioma Incidence\/Mortality and Asbestos Consumption in Ten Western Countries and Japan","volume":"41","author":"Takahashi","year":"1999","journal-title":"J. Occup. Health"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1179\/oeh.2004.10.1.22","article-title":"Global Use of Asbestos and the Incidence of Mesothelioma","volume":"10","author":"Tossavainen","year":"2004","journal-title":"Int. J. Occup. Environ. Health"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"844","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)60412-7","article-title":"Ecological association between asbestos-related diseases and historical asbestos consumption: An international analysis","volume":"369","author":"Lin","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"514","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.1002845","article-title":"Global Magnitude of Reported and Unreported Mesothelioma","volume":"119","author":"Park","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Bahk, J.W. (2013). The Global Spread of Asbestos Ban Policy and It\u2019s Impacts and Implications on Environmental Health and Safety. [Ph.D. Thesis, Seoul National University]."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"587","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6602307","article-title":"The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050","volume":"92","author":"Hodgson","year":"2005","journal-title":"Br. J. Cancer"},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"Korean Statistical Information Service (2021, February 17). Cancer Incident Cases and Incidence Rates by Site, Sex, Age Group. Available online: https:\/\/kosis.kr\/statHtml\/statHtml.do?orgId=117&tblId=DT_117N_A0024&conn_path=I2."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Virta, R.L. (2020, March 25). Worldwide Asbestos Supply and Consumption Trends from 1900 through 2003. U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1298, Available online: https:\/\/pubs.usgs.gov\/circ\/2006\/1298.","DOI":"10.3133\/cir1298"},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Korean Statistical Information Service (2021, February 19). Resident Population by City, County, and District in Five-Year Age Groups. Available online: https:\/\/kosis.kr\/statHtml\/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId=DT_1B040M5&conn_path=I2."},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"Korean Statistical Information Service (2021, February 19). Projected Population by Age Group. Available online: https:\/\/kosis.kr\/statHtml\/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId=DT_1BPA001&conn_path=I2."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"174","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.15.164384","article-title":"An assessment of GLOBOCAN methods for deriving national estimates of cancer incidence","volume":"94","author":"Antoni","year":"2016","journal-title":"Bull. World Health Organ."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1484","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6603746","article-title":"The future burden of cancer in England: Incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020","volume":"96","author":"Fairley","year":"2007","journal-title":"Br. J. Cancer"},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"(2020, February 28). NORDPRED Software Package. Available online: https:\/\/www.kreftregisteret.no\/en\/Research\/Projects\/Nordpred\/Nordpred-software."},{"key":"ref_28","first-page":"437","article-title":"Comparison of predictions and observations to assess model performance: A method of empirical validation","volume":"Volume 2","author":"Kropff","year":"1997","journal-title":"Applications of Systems Approaches at the Field Level"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"694","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2008.17.4813","article-title":"Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model among White Patients Age 50 Years and Older","volume":"27","author":"Park","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Clin. Oncol."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2005.37.6.325","article-title":"Nationwide Cancer Incidence in Korea, 1999~2001; First Result Using the National Cancer Incidence Database","volume":"37","author":"Shin","year":"2005","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Health and Safety Executive (2021, March 14). Mesothelioma Statistics for Great Britain, 2020, Available online: https:\/\/www.hse.gov.uk\/Statistics\/causdis\/mesothelioma\/mesothelioma.pdf."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Sundhedsdatastyrelsen (2021). Nye Kr\u00e6fttilf\u00e6lde i Danmark, Cancerregisteret 2019, Sundhedsdatastyrelsen. (In Danish)."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Netherlands Cancer Registry (2020, April 11). Mortality, Mesothelioma, Male and Female. Available online: https:\/\/www.iknl.nl\/en\/ncr."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1179\/2049396712Y.0000000016","article-title":"Mesothelioma incidence in 50 states and the District of Columbia, United States, 2003\u20132008","volume":"19","author":"Henley","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int. J. Occup. Environ. Health"},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Allen, L.P., Baez, J., Stern, M.E.C., Takahashi, K., and George, F. (2018). Trends and the Economic Effect of Asbestos Bans and Decline in Asbestos Consumption and Production Worldwide. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph15030531"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"949","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-020-00609-4","article-title":"Asbestos exposure and haematological malignancies: A Danish cohort study","volume":"35","author":"Hansen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eur. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1919","DOI":"10.1007\/s00415-016-8215-z","article-title":"Age-period-cohort analysis of trends in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence","volume":"263","author":"Tobin","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Neurol."}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/18\/12\/6614\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T06:19:18Z","timestamp":1760163558000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/18\/12\/6614"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,19]]},"references-count":37,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph18126614"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph18126614","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1660-4601","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,19]]}}}