{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T19:17:33Z","timestamp":1790709453843,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":143,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,31]],"date-time":"2021-12-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640908800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one\u2019s risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network (n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries\u2014France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19010436","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,3]],"date-time":"2022-01-03T22:51:50Z","timestamp":1641250310000},"page":"436","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":51,"title":["Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Kathleen","family":"McColl","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Unite des Virus Emergents, Institut de Recherche pour le D\u00e9veloppement 190, Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM) 1207, Health, Aix-Marseille University, 13009 Marseille, France"},{"name":"\u00c9cole des Hautes \u00c9tudes en Sant\u00e9 Publique (EHESP) French School of Public Health, 35043 Rennes, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5146-7642","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marion","family":"Debin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d\u2019\u00c9pid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, F-75012 Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cecile","family":"Souty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d\u2019\u00c9pid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, F-75012 Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Caroline","family":"Guerrisi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d\u2019\u00c9pid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, F-75012 Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5074-9541","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Clement","family":"Turbelin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d\u2019\u00c9pid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, F-75012 Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0799-1460","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alessandra","family":"Falchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire de Virologie, Unit\u00e9 de Recherche 7310, Universit\u00e9 de Corse, 20250 Corte, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isabelle","family":"Bonmarin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sant\u00e9 Publique France, 94410 Saint Maurice, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniela","family":"Paolotti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto per l\u2019Interscambio Scientifico, ISI Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chinelo","family":"Obi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health England, London SE1 8UG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7507-8617","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jim","family":"Duggan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Computer Science, National University of Ireland, H91 TK33 Galway, Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0895-1893","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yamir","family":"Moreno","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Biocomputation and Physics and Complex Systems, University of Zaragoza, 50001 Zaragoza, Spain"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ania","family":"Wisniak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Antoine","family":"Flahault","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thierry","family":"Blanchon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d\u2019\u00c9pid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, F-75012 Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vittoria","family":"Colizza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d\u2019\u00c9pid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, F-75012 Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8020-4975","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jocelyn","family":"Raude","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unite des Virus Emergents, Institut de Recherche pour le D\u00e9veloppement 190, Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 Et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM) 1207, Health, Aix-Marseille University, 13009 Marseille, France"},{"name":"\u00c9cole des Hautes \u00c9tudes en Sant\u00e9 Publique (EHESP) French School of Public Health, 35043 Rennes, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (2021, December 15). 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