{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,17]],"date-time":"2026-10-17T00:22:11Z","timestamp":1792196531622,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,17]],"date-time":"2022-01-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1642377600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004921","name":"Shanghai Jiao Tong University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["GWV-10.1-XK15, GWV-10.1-XK18, GWV-10.2-XD13"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GWV-10.1-XK15, GWV-10.1-XK18, GWV-10.2-XD13"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004921","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The impact of psychosocial factors on increasing the risk of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) has attracted increasing attention. We aimed to develop and validate an integrated prediction model, especially incorporating emerging psychosocial variables, for predicting the risk of HIV infection among MSM. We surveyed and collected sociodemographic, psychosocial, and behavioral information from 547 MSM in China. The participants were split into a training set and a testing set in a 3:1 theoretical ratio. The prediction model was constructed by introducing the important variables selected with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, applying multivariate logistic regression, and visually assessing the risk of HIV infection through the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), Kolmogorov\u2013Smirnov test, calibration plots, Hosmer\u2013Lemeshow test and population stability index (PSI) were performed to test validity and stability of the model. Four of the 15 selected variables\u2014unprotected anal intercourse, multiple sexual partners, involuntary subordination and drug use before sex\u2014were included in the prediction model. The results indicated that the comprehensive prediction model we developed had relatively good predictive performance and stability in identifying MSM at high-risk for HIV infection, thus providing targeted interventions for high-risk MSM.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19021010","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,17]],"date-time":"2022-01-17T08:20:42Z","timestamp":1642407642000},"page":"1010","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":29,"title":["Prediction Model for the Risk of HIV Infection among MSM in China: Validation and Stability"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3713-3590","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yinqiao","family":"Dong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"},{"name":"Department of Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110122, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shangbin","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Danni","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chen","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaoyue","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hui","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rongxi","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yujie","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jingwen","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7929-6953","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fan","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5706-7906","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yong","family":"Cai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ying","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"(2020, July 06). 2020 Global AIDS Update\u2014Seizing the Moment\u2014Tackling Entrenched Inequalities to End Epidemics. 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