{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T21:54:54Z","timestamp":1789682094230,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]],"date-time":"2025-04-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1744156800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Malaria is a persistent public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where its transmission is intricately linked to climatic factors. Climate change threatens malaria elimination efforts in limited resource settings, such as in the Mberengwa district. However, the role of climate change in malaria transmission and management has not been adequately quantified to inform interventions. This protocol employs a multi-method quantitative study design in four steps, starting with a scoping review of the literature, followed by a multi-method quantitative approach using geospatial analysis, a quantitative survey, and the development of a predictive Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible-Geographic Information System model to explore the link between climate change and malaria transmission in the Mberengwa district. Geospatial overlay, Getis\u2013Ord Gi* spatial autocorrelation, and spatial linear regression will be applied to climate (temperature, rainfall, and humidity), environmental (Land Use\u2013Land Cover, elevations, proximity to water bodies, and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index), and socio-economic (Poverty Levels and Population Density) data to provide a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of malaria in Mberengwa District. The predictive model will utilise historical data from two decades (2003\u20132023) to simulate near- and mid-century malaria transmission patterns. The findings of this study will be used to inform policies and optimise the management of malaria in the context of climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph22040591","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,10]],"date-time":"2025-04-10T07:41:51Z","timestamp":1744270911000},"page":"591","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Modelling an Optimal Climate-Driven Malaria Transmission Control Strategy to Optimise the Management of Malaria in Mberengwa District, Zimbabwe: A Multi-Method Study Protocol"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Tafadzwa","family":"Chivasa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Environmental Science, National University of Science and Technology, Bulawayo 00263, Zimbabwe"},{"name":"Department of Environmental Health Services, Mberengwa District Hospital, Ministry of Health and Child Care, Mberengwa 00263, Zimbabwe"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5857-5734","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mlamuli","family":"Dhlamini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science, National University of Science and Technology, Bulawayo 00263, Zimbabwe"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5153-9212","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Auther","family":"Maviza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Science, National University of Science and Technology, Bulawayo 00263, Zimbabwe"},{"name":"Global Change Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2050, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8421-1478","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wilfred Njabulo","family":"Nunu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Environmental Science, National University of Science and Technology, Bulawayo 00263, Zimbabwe"},{"name":"Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Botswana, Gaborone 00267, Botswana"},{"name":"Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 0027, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4888-1973","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joyce","family":"Tsoka-Gwegweni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 0027, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dufera, M., Dabsu, R., and Tiruneh, G. (2020). Assessment of malaria as a public health problem in and around Arjo Didhessa sugar cane plantation area, Western Ethiopia. BMC Public Health, 20.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-020-08784-5"},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"World Health Organisation (2022). World Malaria Report 2022, World Health Organisation. Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240064898."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Ministry of Health and Child Care (2024, December 01). National Health Strategy for Zimbabwe (2021\u20132025), Available online: https:\/\/foalex.fao.org\/docs\/pdf\/zim225019.pdf."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-020-03270-0","article-title":"Malaria outbreak investigation in a rural area south of Zimbabwe: A case-control study","volume":"19","author":"Mundagowa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-021-03770-7","article-title":"Malaria incidence and mortality in Zimbabwe during the COVID-19 pandemic: Analysis of routine surveillance data","volume":"20","author":"Gavi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.1186\/s40001-023-01046-1","article-title":"Malaria amongst children under five in sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review of prevalence, risk factors and preventive interventions","volume":"28","author":"Sarfo","year":"2023","journal-title":"Eur. J. Med. Res."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1213","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.01.013","article-title":"Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Malaria Control Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review","volume":"24","author":"Conteh","year":"2021","journal-title":"Value Health J. Int. Soc. Pharmacoecon. Outcomes Res."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-023-04563-w","article-title":"Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria","volume":"22","author":"Ozodiegwu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2022GH000698","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GH000698","article-title":"Climate Drivers of Malaria Transmission Seasonality and Their Relative Importance in Sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"7","author":"Yamba","year":"2023","journal-title":"GeoHealth"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-021-03718-x","article-title":"Climate-proofing a malaria eradication strategy","volume":"20","author":"Nissan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1999.61.109","article-title":"Short report: Entomologic inoculation rates and Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in Africa","volume":"61","author":"Beier","year":"1999","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"519","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.43.1.519","article-title":"Malaria parasite development in mosquitoes","volume":"43","author":"Beier","year":"1998","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1690","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13335","article-title":"Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease","volume":"22","author":"Mordecai","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e00261","DOI":"10.1016\/j.parepi.2022.e00261","article-title":"Spatial-temporal pattern of malaria in Burkina Faso from 2013 to 2020","volume":"18","author":"Ouattara","year":"2022","journal-title":"Parasite Epidemiol. Control."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lenhart, S.W., and Workman, J.T. (2007). Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models, Chapman and Hall\/CRC.","DOI":"10.1201\/9781420011418"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Smith, D.L., McKenzie, F.E., Snow, R.W., and Hay, S.I. (2007). Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control. PLoS Biol., 5.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.0050042"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"202","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-10-202","article-title":"Mathematical models of malaria\u2014A review","volume":"10","author":"Mandal","year":"2011","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"149","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-023-04577-4","article-title":"Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria incidence and its risk factors in North Namibia","volume":"22","author":"Katale","year":"2023","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e002919","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2020-002919","article-title":"Spatial and spatio-temporal methods for mapping malaria risk: A systematic review","volume":"5","author":"Odhiambo","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ Glob. Health"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1186\/s12942-016-0051-y","article-title":"Mapping intra-urban malaria risk using high resolution satellite imagery: A case study of Dar es Salaam","volume":"15","author":"Kabaria","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Health Geogr."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-021-03998-3","article-title":"Supporting countries to achieve their malaria elimination goals: The WHO E-2020 initiative","volume":"20","author":"Lindblade","year":"2021","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"Ministry of Health and Child Care (2024). Malaria Incidence Data for Mberengwa District (2015\u20132023)."},{"key":"ref_23","first-page":"1","article-title":"Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: Emerging Evidence and Call to Action","volume":"29","author":"Mahmood","year":"2022","journal-title":"Malays. J. Med. Sci."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-3-32","article-title":"A weather-driven model of malaria transmission","volume":"3","author":"Hoshen","year":"2004","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1405","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.19-0386","article-title":"The Economic Burden of Malaria: Revisiting the Evidence","volume":"101","author":"Sarma","year":"2019","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Brown, D.C., Rance, R., Chatiza, K., Dhliwayo, M., Dodman, D., Masiiwa, M., Muchadenyika, D., Mugabe, P., and Zvigadza, S. (2012). Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Zimbabwe, IIED."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Savi, M.K. (2022). An Overview of Malaria Transmission Mechanisms, Control, and Modeling. Med. Sci., 11.","DOI":"10.20944\/preprints202212.0077.v1"},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Qassimi, N. (2024, October 06). Enhancing Validity, Rigor, and Insight through Multimethod Approaches. Available online: https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/376800229_Enhancing_Validity_Rigor_and_Insight_through_Multimethod_Approaches."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-022-05294-y","article-title":"Seasonal dynamics of agro-meteorological drought in Mberengwa and Zvishavane districts between 2017 and 2020, Zimbabwe","volume":"113","author":"Mupepi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1186\/s42269-023-01160-4","article-title":"Impact of El Ni\u00f1o on public health and its preparedness measures","volume":"48","author":"Rony","year":"2024","journal-title":"Bull. Natl. Res. Cent."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nyamushosho, R.T., Chirikure, S., Sitas, A., and Mathoho, E. (2022). Modelling Land Use in The Gold Belt Territories of Iron Age Southern Zambezia. Land, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/land11091425"},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2229892","DOI":"10.1080\/17441692.2023.2229892","article-title":"The Burden of Malaria in sub-Saharan Africa and Its Association with Development Assistance for Health and Governance: An Exploration of the GBD 2019 Study","volume":"18","author":"Sempungu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Glob. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2023). World Malaria Report 2023, World Health Organization."},{"key":"ref_34","unstructured":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ma, J., Guo, Y., Gao, J., Tang, H., Xu, K., Liu, Q., and Xu, L. (2022). Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective. Biology, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/biology11111628"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1969","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra2200092","article-title":"Climate Change and Vectorborne Diseases","volume":"387","author":"Thomson","year":"2022","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.13950","article-title":"Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases","volume":"1436","author":"Caminade","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104366","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amsu.2022.104366","article-title":"Increasing challenges of malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa: Priorities for public health research and policymakers","volume":"81","author":"Oladipo","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ann. Med. Surg."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3286","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1302089111","article-title":"Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution","volume":"111","author":"Caminade","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1011943131643","article-title":"Predicting Malaria Epidemics in the Kenyan Highlands Using Climate Data: A Tool for Decision Makers","volume":"2","author":"Githeko","year":"2001","journal-title":"Glob. Change Hum. Health"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"909","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2005.01462.x","article-title":"Towards empirical description of malaria seasonality in southern Africa: The example of Zimbabwe","volume":"10","author":"Mabaso","year":"2005","journal-title":"Trop. Med. Int. Health TM & IH"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"214","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2005.73.214","article-title":"Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana","volume":"73","author":"Thomson","year":"2005","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.12688\/hrbopenres.13268.3","article-title":"A scoping review protocol of evidence-based guidance and guidelines published by general practitioner professional organisations","volume":"4","author":"Clyne","year":"2022","journal-title":"HRB Open Res."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"210","DOI":"10.1186\/s13643-016-0384-4","article-title":"Rayyan\u2014A web and mobile app for systematic reviews","volume":"5","author":"Ouzzani","year":"2016","journal-title":"Syst. Rev."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1177\/135581960501000110","article-title":"Synthesising qualitative and quantitative evidence: A review of possible methods","volume":"10","author":"Agarwal","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Health Serv. Res. Policy"},{"key":"ref_46","first-page":"1","article-title":"The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) version 2018 for information professionals and researchers","volume":"34","author":"Hong","year":"2018","journal-title":"Educ. Inf."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.76.33","article-title":"Environmental predictors of the seasonality of malaria transmission in Africa: The challenge","volume":"76","author":"Mabaso","year":"2007","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"322","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)31097-9","article-title":"Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000\u20132017: A spatial and temporal modelling study","volume":"394","author":"Weiss","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Opoku, S.K., Leal Filho, W., Hubert, F., and Adejumo, O. (2021). Climate Change and Health Preparedness in Africa: Analysing Trends in Six African Countries. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 18.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18094672"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ikeda, T., Behera, S.K., Morioka, Y., Minakawa, N., Hashizume, M., Tsuzuki, A., Maharaj, R., and Kruger, P. (2017). Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa. Sci. Rep., 7.","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-02680-6"},{"key":"ref_51","unstructured":"Ministry of Health and Child Care (2024). Malaria Case Surveillance Data 2019\u20132023: Mberengwa District, District Health Information System-Tracker (DHIS-Tracker)."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101432","DOI":"10.1016\/j.uclim.2023.101432","article-title":"Assessment of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios and its impacts on the Greater Accra region","volume":"49","author":"Siabi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Urban Clim."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125422","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2020.125422","article-title":"Assessment of precipitation extremes in India during the 21st century under SSP1-1.9 mitigation scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs","volume":"590","author":"Gupta","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3571","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-13-3571-2020","article-title":"The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500","volume":"13","author":"Meinshausen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"ref_55","first-page":"313","article-title":"Pilot Implementation: Learning from Field Tests in IS Development","volume":"30","author":"Hertzum","year":"2012","journal-title":"Commun. Assoc. Inf. Syst."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"133","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-12-133","article-title":"Urbanization and the global malaria recession","volume":"12","author":"Tatem","year":"2013","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-5-14","article-title":"Therapeutic efficacy test in malaria falciparum in Antioquia, Colombia","volume":"5","author":"Blair","year":"2006","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2018.05.037","article-title":"The treatment of incomplete data: Reporting, analysis, reproducibility, and replicability","volume":"209","author":"Sidi","year":"2018","journal-title":"Soc. Sci. Med."}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/22\/4\/591\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T17:11:47Z","timestamp":1760029907000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/22\/4\/591"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]]},"references-count":58,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph22040591"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph22040591","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1660-4601","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]]}}}