{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T11:21:42Z","timestamp":1790248902929,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,4]],"date-time":"2025-10-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1759536000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"UTE University"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.mdpi.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>In Ecuador, the transmission of dengue has steadily increased in recent decades, particularly in coastal cities like Manta, where the conditions are favorable for the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. The objective of this study was to model the spatial distribution of dengue transmission risk in Manta, a coastal city in Ecuador with consistently high incidence rates. A total of 148 georeferenced dengue cases from 2018 to 2021 were collected, and environmental and socioeconomic variables were incorporated into a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Additionally, climate and social zoning were performed using a multi-criteria model in TerrSet. The MaxEnt model demonstrated excellent predictive ability (training AUC = 0.916; test AUC = 0.876) and identified population density, sewer system access, and distance to rivers as the primary predictors. Three high-risk clusters were identified in the southern, northwestern, and northeastern parts of the city, while the coastal strip showed lower suitability due to low rainfall and vegetation. These findings reveal the strong spatial heterogeneity of dengue risk at the neighborhood level and provide operational information for targeted interventions. This approach can support more efficient surveillance, resource allocation, and community action in coastal urban areas affected by vector-borne diseases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph22101521","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,6]],"date-time":"2025-10-06T08:10:51Z","timestamp":1759738251000},"page":"1521","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Spatial Modeling of the Potential Distribution of Dengue in the City of Manta, Ecuador"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8506-4107","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Karina","family":"Lalangui-Vivanco","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n en Salud P\u00fablica y Epidemiolog\u00eda Cl\u00ednica (CISPEC), Facultad Ciencias de la Salud Eugenio Espejo, Universidad UTE, Quito 170527, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5600-2361","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emmanuelle","family":"Quentin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n en Salud P\u00fablica y Epidemiolog\u00eda Cl\u00ednica (CISPEC), Facultad Ciencias de la Salud Eugenio Espejo, Universidad UTE, Quito 170527, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3719-8589","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marco","family":"S\u00e1nchez-Murillo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Investigaci\u00f3n en Salud P\u00fablica, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta P\u00e9rez, Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n EpiSIG, Quito 170136, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1560-2130","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Max","family":"Cotera-Mantilla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Investigaci\u00f3n en Salud P\u00fablica, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta P\u00e9rez, Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n EpiSIG, Quito 170136, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8267-7351","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luis","family":"Loor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manab\u00ed, Manta 130222, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6945-660X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Milton","family":"Espinoza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manab\u00ed, Manta 130222, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7799-1151","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Johanna Mabel","family":"S\u00e1nchez-Rodr\u00edguez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manab\u00ed, Manta 130222, Ecuador"},{"name":"Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de enfermer\u00eda, Universidad Estatal del Sur de Manab\u00ed, Manta 130104, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mauricio","family":"Espinel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manab\u00ed, Manta 130222, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7627-1056","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Patricio","family":"Ponce","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Investigaci\u00f3n en Salud P\u00fablica, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta P\u00e9rez, Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n CIREV, Quito 170136, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Varsovia","family":"Cevallos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Investigaci\u00f3n en Salud P\u00fablica, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta P\u00e9rez, Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n CIREV, Quito 170136, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization (WHO) (2025, June 26). 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