{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,2]],"date-time":"2026-04-02T16:36:13Z","timestamp":1775147773544,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"18","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,8]],"date-time":"2023-09-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1694131200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda","award":["2017-2-69"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2017-2-69"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJMS"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Preterm birth (PB) is a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. PB prediction is performed by measuring cervical length, with a detection rate of around 70%. Although it is known that a cytokine-mediated inflammatory process is involved in the pathophysiology of PB, none screening method implemented in clinical practice includes cytokine levels as a predictor variable. Here, we quantified cytokines in cervical-vaginal mucus of pregnant women (18\u201323.6 weeks of gestation) with high or low risk for PB determined by cervical length, also collecting relevant obstetric information. IL-2, IL-6, IFN-\u03b3, IL-4, and IL-10 were significantly higher in the high-risk group, while IL-1ra was lower. Two different models for PB prediction were created using the Random Forest machine-learning algorithm: a full model with 12 clinical variables and cytokine values and the adjusted model, including the most relevant variables-maternal age, IL-2, and cervical length- (detection rate 66 vs. 87%, false positive rate 12 vs. 3.33%, false negative rate 28 vs. 6.66%, and area under the curve 0.722 vs. 0.875, respectively). The adjusted model that incorporate cytokines showed a detection rate eight points higher than the gold standard calculator, which may allow us to identify the risk PB risk more accurately and implement strategies for preventive interventions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijms241813851","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,8]],"date-time":"2023-09-08T07:52:11Z","timestamp":1694159531000},"page":"13851","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["A Novel Predictive Machine Learning Model Integrating Cytokines in Cervical-Vaginal Mucus Increases the Prediction Rate for Preterm Birth"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"24","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7701-9621","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hector","family":"Borboa-Olivares","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Community Interventions Research Branch, Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda Isidro Espinosa de los Reyes, Mexico City 11000, Mexico"},{"name":"PhD Program in Biological and Health Sciences, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma Metropolitana, Mexico City 09310, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maria Jose","family":"Rodr\u00edguez-Sibaja","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda Isidro Espinosa de los Reyes, Mexico City 11000, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9087-8017","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Aurora","family":"Espejel-Nu\u00f1ez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Immunobiochemistry, Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda Isidro Espinosa de los Reyes, Mexico City 11000, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7876-6098","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Arturo","family":"Flores-Pliego","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Immunobiochemistry, Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda Isidro Espinosa de los Reyes, Mexico City 11000, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0902-4351","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jonatan","family":"Mendoza-Ortega","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Bioinformatics and Statistical Analysis, Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda Isidro Espinosa de los Reyes, Mexico City 11000, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ignacio","family":"Camacho-Arroyo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unidad de Investigaci\u00f3n en Reproducci\u00f3n Humana, Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda, Facultad de Qu\u00edmica, Universidad Nacional Aut\u00f3noma de Mexico, Mexico City 11000, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ram\u00f3n","family":"Gonz\u00e1lez-Camarena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Sciences, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, Mexico City 09310, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juan Carlos","family":"Echeverr\u00eda-Arjonilla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Electrical Engineering, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, Mexico City 09310, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9551-9021","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guadalupe","family":"Estrada-Gutierrez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Perinatolog\u00eda Isidro Espinosa de los Reyes, Mexico City 11000, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"328","DOI":"10.1097\/NMC.0000000000000656","article-title":"Preterm Labor and Birth: A Clinical Review","volume":"45","author":"Griggs","year":"2020","journal-title":"MCN Am. 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Gynecol."}],"container-title":["International Journal of Molecular Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1422-0067\/24\/18\/13851\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T20:47:26Z","timestamp":1760129246000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1422-0067\/24\/18\/13851"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,8]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"18","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,9]]}},"alternative-id":["ijms241813851"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijms241813851","relation":{},"ISSN":["1422-0067"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1422-0067","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,8]]}}}