{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,24]],"date-time":"2026-01-24T19:14:20Z","timestamp":1769282060703,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]],"date-time":"2026-01-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769040000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Key R&D projects of Hainan Province","award":["ZDYF2024XDNY270"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ZDYF2024XDNY270"]}]},{"name":"Hainan Rice Agricultural Research System","award":["HNARS-04-G04"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HNARS-04-G04"]}]},{"name":"Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund","award":["1630042025021"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1630042025021"]}]},{"name":"Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences for Science and Technology Innovation Team of National Tropical Agricultural Science Center","award":["CATASCXTD202523"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CATASCXTD202523"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Insects"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The larvae and damage symptoms of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis and Cnaphalocrocis patnalis exhibit a high degree of similarity, which often leads to confusion between the two species. This has posed challenges for research on their population dynamics and the development of effective control measures. To better understand their morphological and damage characteristics, population dynamics, species identification based on COI gene fragments, and potential future distribution, a searchlight trap monitoring program was conducted for C. medinalis and its closely related species C. patnalis across four sites in Longhua, Haitang, and Yazhou districts in Hainan Province from 2021 to 2023. The MaxEnt model was utilized to predict the potential global distribution of both species, incorporating known occurrence points and climate variables. The trapping results revealed that both species reached peak abundance between April and June, with a maximum of 1500 individuals captured in May at Beishan Village, Haitang District. Interannual population fluctuations of both species generally followed a unimodal pattern. Genetic analyses revealed distinct differences in the mitochondrial COI gene fragment, confirming that C. medinalis and C. patnalis are closely related yet distinct species. The population peak of C. patnalis occurred slightly earlier than that of C. medinalis, and its field damage was more severe. Infestations during the booting to heading stages of rice significantly reduced seed-setting rates and overall yield. Model predictions indicated that large areas of southern Eurasia are suitable for the survival of both species, with precipitation during the wettest month identified as the primary environmental factor shaping their potential distributions. At present, moderately and highly suitable habitats for C. medinalis account for 2.50% and 2.27% of the global land area, respectively, whereas those for C. patnalis account for 2.85% and 1.19%. These results highlight that climate change is likely to exacerbate the damage caused by both rice leaf-roller pests, particularly the emerging threat posed by C. patnalis. Overall, this study provides a scientific basis for invasion risk assessment and the development of integrated management strategies targeting the combined impacts of C. medinalis and C. patnalis.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/insects17010126","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]],"date-time":"2026-01-23T09:16:59Z","timestamp":1769159819000},"page":"126","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Integrating Morphological, Molecular, and Climatic Evidence to Distinguish Two Cryptic Rice Leaf Folder Species and Assess Their Potential Distributions"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4562-7678","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Qian","family":"Gao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China"},{"name":"Environment and Plant Protection Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhiqian","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jihong","family":"Tang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environment and Plant Protection Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management on Tropical Crops, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Haikou 571101, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jingyun","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environment and Plant Protection Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1115-7332","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yan","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management of Invasive Alien Species, Guizhou Education Department, Department of Biology and Engineering of Environment, Guiyang University, Guiyang 550005, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Baoqian","family":"Lyu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environment and Plant Protection Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management on Tropical Crops, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Haikou 571101, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1000-5687","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gao","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management of Invasive Alien Species, Guizhou Education Department, Department of Biology and Engineering of Environment, Guiyang University, Guiyang 550005, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu, Q., Hallerman, E., Peng, Y., Li, Y., Liu, Q., Hallerman, E., Peng, Y., and Li, Y. (2016). Development of Bt rice and Bt maize in China and their efficacy in target pest control. Int. J. Mol. Sci., 17.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijms17101561"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.molimm.2020.10.020","article-title":"Transcriptome sequencing reveals Cnaphalocrocis medinalis against baculovirus infection by oxidative stress","volume":"129","author":"Han","year":"2021","journal-title":"Mol. Immunol."},{"key":"ref_3","first-page":"31","article-title":"Population dynamics of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis and its related species, Cnaphalocrocis patnalis, in paddy field of Xishuangbanna","volume":"39","author":"Yang","year":"2019","journal-title":"China Plant Prot."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"513","article-title":"Occurrence of the third and fourth generations of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis in the mixed cropping rice region in Anqing Anhui province","volume":"5","author":"Qi","year":"2008","journal-title":"Chin. J. Rice Sci."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Qian, Q., Guo, X., Wu, L., Cui, J., Gao, H., Yang, Y., Xu, H., Lu, Z., and Zhu, P. (2024). Molecular characterization of plant volatile compound interactions with Cnaphalocrocis medinalis odorant-binding proteins. Plants, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/plants13040479"},{"key":"ref_6","first-page":"691","article-title":"Progresses in management technology of rice leaffolders in China","volume":"42","author":"Yang","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Plant Prot."},{"key":"ref_7","first-page":"73","article-title":"Impact of rice leaf folder (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) damage on rice yield","volume":"6","author":"Tao","year":"2005","journal-title":"Anhui Agric. Sci. Bull."},{"key":"ref_8","first-page":"997","article-title":"Morphological and niche differences of Cnaphalocrocis exigua and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis larvae","volume":"59","author":"Guo","year":"2022","journal-title":"Chin. J. Appl. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rsci.2015.09.003","article-title":"Physiological Age Status of Female Adults and Off-Season Survival of Rice Leaffolder Cnaphalocrocis medinalis in India","volume":"22","author":"Chintalapati","year":"2015","journal-title":"Rice Sci."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141795","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.141795","article-title":"Global Direct nitrous oxide emissions from the bioenergy crop sugarcane (Saccharum Spp. inter-specific hybrids)","volume":"752","author":"Yang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21245","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-71228-2","article-title":"Predicting possible distribution of rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt Model in China","volume":"14","author":"Zhao","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"37","article-title":"China forecast of occurrence trends for major diseases and pests of grain crops","volume":"41","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"China Plant Prot."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1527","DOI":"10.1016\/S2095-3119(17)61885-9","article-title":"Analysis on the migration of first-generation Mythimna separata (Walker) in China in 2013","volume":"17","author":"Zhang","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Integr. Agric."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1016\/j.futures.2016.04.007","article-title":"The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: A supply-side analysis","volume":"86","author":"Wang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Futures"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2005","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1081056","article-title":"Abrupt climate change","volume":"299","author":"Alley","year":"2003","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"183","article-title":"Genetic consequences of climatic oscillations in the Quaternary","volume":"359","author":"Godfrey","year":"2004","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1337","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2008.01559.x","article-title":"climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: The Banksia (Proteaceae) of western Australia","volume":"14","author":"Fitzpatrick","year":"2008","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"550","DOI":"10.1038\/448550a","article-title":"Climate change and the ecologist","volume":"448","author":"Thuiller","year":"2007","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-025-00652-3","article-title":"Crop pest responses to global changes in climate and land management","volume":"6","author":"Ma","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Earth Environ."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026","article-title":"Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions","volume":"190","author":"Phillips","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e81073","DOI":"10.3897\/BDJ.10.e81073","article-title":"MaxEnt model-based prediction of potential distributions of Parnassia wightiana (Celastraceae) in China","volume":"10","author":"Dai","year":"2022","journal-title":"Biodivers. Data J."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159","article-title":"Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time","volume":"40","author":"Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105836","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cropro.2021.105836","article-title":"Global potential distribution of Anastrepha grandis (Diptera, Tephritidae) under climate change scenarios","volume":"151","author":"Nava","year":"2022","journal-title":"Crop Prot."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.12610","article-title":"Evolutionary history of the subnival flora of the himalaya-hengduan mountains: First insights from comparative phylogeography of four perennial herbs","volume":"43","author":"Luo","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"919","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-014-0677-x","article-title":"Shifts in the extent and location of rice cropping areas match the climate change pattern in China during 1980\u20132010","volume":"15","author":"Liu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Reg. Environ. Change"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"011008","DOI":"10.1088\/2515-7620\/ab0856","article-title":"Climate change and geographic shifts in rice production in China","volume":"1","author":"Wang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Commun."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.3897\/neobiota.40.28165","article-title":"Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the Fall Armyworm","volume":"40","author":"Early","year":"2018","journal-title":"NeoBiota"},{"key":"ref_28","first-page":"13","article-title":"Population dynamic analysis of rice migratory pests in the Nanfan areas","volume":"40","author":"Lu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Chin. J. Trop. Agric."},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"1731","article-title":"Study on the impact of Nanfan breeding on promoting local rural community development","volume":"23","author":"Hao","year":"2025","journal-title":"Mol. Plant Breed."},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"303","article-title":"System dynamics modeling for experimental population of rice leaf roller under temperature influence","volume":"32","author":"Qin","year":"2011","journal-title":"Chin. J. Agrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_31","first-page":"4436","article-title":"Rhythm of rice leaf folder (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) to the searchlight trap","volume":"47","author":"Qi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Sci. Agric. Sin."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2267","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2656.70126","article-title":"Long-range pollen transport across the North Sea: Insights from migratory hoverflies landing on a remote oil rig","volume":"94","author":"Doyle","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Anim. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.01132","article-title":"spThin: An R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models","volume":"38","author":"Matthew","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3461","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-3461-2016","article-title":"The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6","volume":"9","author":"Tebaldi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"ref_35","first-page":"9202","article-title":"Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution and overwintering boundary of Spodoptera litura","volume":"10","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_36","first-page":"21","article-title":"Forecast and analysis of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis guenee risk region in China based on climate change","volume":"40","author":"Jiang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Meteorol. Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1007\/s10109-016-0239-5","article-title":"Geographically weighted regression and multicollinearity: Dispelling the myth","volume":"18","author":"Fotheringham","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Syst."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jin, Z., Yu, W., Zhao, H., Xian, X., Jing, K., Yang, N., and Liu, W. (2022). Potential global distribution of invasive alien species, Anthonomus grandis Boheman, under current and future climate using optimal MaxEnt model. Agriculture, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/agriculture12111759"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yan, H., He, J., Xu, X., Yao, X., Wang, G., Tang, L., and Qu, L. (2021). Prediction of Potentially suitable distributions of Codonopsis pilosula in China based on an optimized MaxEnt model. Front. Ecol. Evol., 9.","DOI":"10.3389\/fevo.2021.773396"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1080\/11956860.2019.1673604","article-title":"MaxEnt modeling to predict current and future distributions of Batocera Lineolata (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under climate change in China","volume":"27","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"\u00c9coscience"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1285","DOI":"10.1126\/science.3287615","article-title":"Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems","volume":"240","author":"Swets","year":"1988","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ye, X., Zhao, G., Zhang, M., Cui, X., Fan, H., and Liu, B. (2020). Distribution pattern of endangered plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in response to climate change after the last interglacial period. Forests, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/f11040434"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x","article-title":"Novel methods improve prediction of species\u2019 distributions from occurrence data","volume":"29","author":"Elith","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gao, R., Liu, L., Zhao, L., and Cui, S. (2023). Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamous alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model. Insects, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/insects14020182"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2138","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jia.2023.06.022","article-title":"Potential global distribution of the guava root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling","volume":"22","author":"Pan","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Integr. Agric."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mao, M., Chen, S., Ke, Z., Qian, Z., and Xu, Y. (2022). Using MaxEnt to predict the potential distribution of the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata) in China. Insects, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/insects13111008"},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1198","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.12261","article-title":"ENM eval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for Maxent ecological niche models","volume":"5","author":"Muscarella","year":"2014","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"501","DOI":"10.5656\/KSAE.2016.11.0.053","article-title":"Predicting Potential Distribution of Monochamus alternatus Hope Responding to Climate Change in Korea","volume":"55","author":"Kim","year":"2016","journal-title":"Korean J. Appl. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_49","first-page":"1178","article-title":"Progress in research on the relationship between host plants and the occurrence of the rice leaf folder and the degree of crop damage caused by this pest","volume":"56","author":"Liu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Chin. J. Appl. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_50","first-page":"6495","article-title":"Occurrence dynamics and trajectory analysis of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guen\u00e9e in Xing\u2019an Guangxi Municipality in 2010","volume":"31","author":"Jiang","year":"2011","journal-title":"Acta Ecol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_51","first-page":"e01444","article-title":"Predicting the Current and Future Distributions of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) under Climate Change in China","volume":"25","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1016\/j.matt.2019.04.006","article-title":"Ultrastrong Graphene Films via Long-Chain \u03c0-Bridging","volume":"1","author":"Wan","year":"2019","journal-title":"Matter"},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1034\/j.1600-0706.2002.t01-1-980116.x","article-title":"Using niche-based GIS modeling to test geographic predictions of competitive exclusion and competitive release in South American pocket mice","volume":"98","author":"Anderson","year":"2002","journal-title":"Oikos"},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1266","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01849.x","article-title":"Where do adaptive shifts occur during invasion? A multidisciplinary approach to unravelling cold adaptation in a tropical ant species invading the Mediterranean area","volume":"15","author":"Rey","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"701","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2007.01060.x","article-title":"Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion","volume":"10","author":"Broennimann","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_56","first-page":"e00691","article-title":"Modeling the Distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum in China with MaxEnt Modeling","volume":"19","author":"Xu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Conserv."}],"container-title":["Insects"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2075-4450\/17\/1\/126\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]],"date-time":"2026-01-23T09:37:39Z","timestamp":1769161059000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2075-4450\/17\/1\/126"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]]},"references-count":56,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]}},"alternative-id":["insects17010126"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/insects17010126","relation":{},"ISSN":["2075-4450"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2075-4450","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]]}}}