{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T10:33:43Z","timestamp":1785407623393,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]],"date-time":"2026-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785110400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement","award":["2025NLTSZ001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025NLTSZ001"]}]},{"name":"Sichuan Provincial Academy of Natural Resource Sciences","award":["2026NSFSC0199"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2026NSFSC0199"]}]},{"award":["2026NSFSC0199"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2026NSFSC0199"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/04tf4g123","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Hainan Postdoctoral Research Project","award":["417320"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["417320"]}]},{"name":"Science Research Project of Hebei Education Department","award":["BJK2023104"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BJK2023104"]}]},{"name":"Open Research Fund of Environment-friendly and Efficient Water-Saving Technology and Equipment for Hilly Agriculture Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province","award":["2025JDPT0109-3"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025JDPT0109-3"]}]},{"name":"Key Innovation Team of Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Service","award":["SCQXZDCXTD202403"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SCQXZDCXTD202403"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Insects"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Spodoptera frugiperda is a highly polyphagous pest that poses a serious threat to global agricultural production. Understanding its species distribution is of great importance under the current context of climate change. In this study, we used the biomod2 platform to integrate six models, namely XGBOOST, Maxnet, Maxent, MARS, GBM, and GLM, to construct an ensemble model. This ensemble model was used to simulate the potential distribution of S. frugiperda under current and three future climate scenarios, and to analyze the main environmental factors influencing its distribution and their change trends. The results indicated that Bio08, Bio16, Bio09, and Bio03 were the major environmental factors affecting the species\u2019 distribution. Under the current scenario, the suitable area was approximately 2026.05 \u00d7 104 km2, accounting for about 10% of the global land area, and was mainly concentrated in East Asia and central North America. The expansion of S. frugiperda varied among the three future climate scenarios; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the expansion toward higher latitudes was the most pronounced, with the total suitable area increasing by 91.8%. Analysis of the three climate scenarios revealed that the expansion trend of S. frugiperda intensified with increasing carbon emissions. Under the most conservative SSP1-2.6 scenario, even a slight reduction in suitable area was possible. This study provides an in-depth exploration of the distribution characteristics of S. frugiperda and its responses to environmental factors from a geographical perspective. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the species\u2019 potential distribution and the influence of environmental variables from a spatial standpoint. They offer a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest in specific regions, and may also serve as a reference for future studies on similar invasive insect pests.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/insects17080772","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]],"date-time":"2026-07-27T14:08:14Z","timestamp":1785161294000},"page":"772","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Simulation and Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda Under Current and Three Future Scenarios Based on the Biomod2 Model Under Global Climate Change"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-7776-194X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhipeng","family":"He","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Boyang","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Art, Hebei University of Architecture, Zhangjiakou 075000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1431-0769","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rulin","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sichuan Province Agro-Meteorological Center, Chengdu 610071, China"},{"name":"Environment-Friendly and Efficient Water-Saving Technology and Equipment for Hilly Agriculture Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610066, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Danping","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xinqi","family":"Deng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhihang","family":"Zhuo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China"},{"name":"Environment and Plant Protection Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106888","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2020.106888","article-title":"Elevational specialization and the monitoring of the effects of climate change in insects: Beetles in a Brazilian rainforest mountain","volume":"120","author":"Colares","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ecol. 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