{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,8]],"date-time":"2026-08-08T15:05:25Z","timestamp":1786201525936,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,25]],"date-time":"2022-03-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648166400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Emerging Leadership Investigator Grant","award":["GNT1172873"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GNT1172873"]}]},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Emerging Leadership Investigator Grant","award":["GNT1193955"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GNT1193955"]}]},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Leadership Investigator Grant","award":["GNT1172900"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GNT1172900"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["8191101420"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["8191101420"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Thousand Talents Plan Professorship for Young Scholars","award":["3111500001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["3111500001"]}]},{"name":"Xi'an Jiaotong University Basic Research and Profession Grant","award":["xtr022019003"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["xtr022019003"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JCM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: More than one million people acquire sexually transmitted infections (STIs) every day globally. It is possible that predicting an individual\u2019s future risk of HIV\/STIs could contribute to behaviour change or improve testing. We developed a series of machine learning models and a subsequent risk-prediction tool for predicting the risk of HIV\/STIs over the next 12 months. Methods: Our data included individuals who were re-tested at the clinic for HIV (65,043 consultations), syphilis (56,889 consultations), gonorrhoea (60,598 consultations), and chlamydia (63,529 consultations) after initial consultations at the largest public sexual health centre in Melbourne from 2 March 2015 to 31 December 2019. We used the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve to evaluate the model\u2019s performance. The HIV\/STI risk-prediction tool was delivered via a web application. Results: Our risk-prediction tool had an acceptable performance on the testing datasets for predicting HIV (AUC = 0.72), syphilis (AUC = 0.75), gonorrhoea (AUC = 0.73), and chlamydia (AUC = 0.67) acquisition. Conclusions: Using machine learning techniques, our risk-prediction tool has acceptable reliability in predicting HIV\/STI acquisition over the next 12 months. This tool may be used on clinic websites or digital health platforms to form part of an intervention tool to increase testing or reduce future HIV\/STI risk.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm11071818","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,27]],"date-time":"2022-03-27T21:27:51Z","timestamp":1648416471000},"page":"1818","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":51,"title":["A Machine-Learning-Based Risk-Prediction Tool for HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infections Acquisition over the Next 12 Months"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Xianglong","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia"},{"name":"Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"},{"name":"China Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi\u2019an 710061, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5880-8673","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zongyuan","family":"Ge","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Monash e-Research Centre, Faculty of Engineering, Airdoc Research, Nvidia AI Technology Research Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1766-0657","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eric P. F.","family":"Chow","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia"},{"name":"Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"},{"name":"Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhen","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"},{"name":"Monash e-Research Centre, Faculty of Engineering, Airdoc Research, Nvidia AI Technology Research Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jinrong","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3086, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5784-7403","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jason J.","family":"Ong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia"},{"name":"Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"},{"name":"China Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi\u2019an 710061, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christopher K.","family":"Fairley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia"},{"name":"Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"},{"name":"China Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi\u2019an 710061, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2343-084X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia"},{"name":"Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia"},{"name":"China Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi\u2019an 710061, China"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"244","DOI":"10.1007\/s11904-019-00446-5","article-title":"Confronting Rising STIs in the Era of PrEP and Treatment as Prevention","volume":"16","author":"Ramchandani","year":"2019","journal-title":"Curr. 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