{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,8]],"date-time":"2025-12-08T22:34:48Z","timestamp":1765233288165,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,13]],"date-time":"2022-04-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1649808000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JCM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Predictive scores assessing the risk of respiratory failure in COVID-19 mostly focused on the prediction of early intubation. A combined assessment of clinical parameters and biomarkers of endotheliopathy could allow to predict late worsening of acute respiratory failure (ARF), subsequently warranting intubation in COVID-19. Retrospective single-center derivation (n = 92 subjects) and validation cohorts (n = 59 subjects), including severe COVID-19 patients with non-invasive respiratory support, were assessed for at least 48 h following intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used stepwise regression to construct the COVID endothelial and respiratory failure (CERES) score in a derivation cohort, and secondly assessed its accuracy for the prediction of late ARF worsening, requiring intubation within 15 days following ICU admission in an independent validation cohort. Platelet count, fraction of inspired oxygen, and endocan measured on ICU admission were identified as the top three predictive variables for late ARF worsening and subsequently included in the CERES score. The area under the ROC curve of the CERES score to predict late ARF worsening was calculated in the derivation and validation cohorts at 0.834 and 0.780, respectively. The CERES score is a simple tool with good performances to predict respiratory failure worsening, leading to secondary intubation, in COVID-19 patients.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm11082172","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,13]],"date-time":"2022-04-13T21:33:42Z","timestamp":1649885622000},"page":"2172","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Alexandre","family":"Gaudet","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Critical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"},{"name":"Univ. Lille, CNRS, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1019-UMR9017-CIIL-Centre d\u2019Infection et d\u2019Immunit\u00e9 de Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Benoit","family":"Ghozlan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Critical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Annabelle","family":"Dupont","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Univ. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5836-5956","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Erika","family":"Parmentier-Decrucq","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Critical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"},{"name":"Univ. Lille, CNRS, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1019-UMR9017-CIIL-Centre d\u2019Infection et d\u2019Immunit\u00e9 de Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mickael","family":"Rosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Univ. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Emmanuelle","family":"Jeanpierre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Univ. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Constance","family":"Bayon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Critical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1579-2763","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anne","family":"Tsicopoulos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Univ. Lille, CNRS, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1019-UMR9017-CIIL-Centre d\u2019Infection et d\u2019Immunit\u00e9 de Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8184-930X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thibault","family":"Duburcq","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Critical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sophie","family":"Susen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Univ. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6017-5353","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Julien","family":"Poissy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Critical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, France"},{"name":"Univ. Lille, Inserm U1285, CHU Lille, CNRS, UMR 8576, UGSF, Unit\u00e9 de Glycobiologie Structurale et Fonctionnelle, F-59000 Lille, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"579","DOI":"10.1016\/j.accpm.2020.07.012","article-title":"Outcome of non-invasive ventilation in COVID-19 critically ill patients: A Retrospective observational Study","volume":"39","author":"Mukhtar","year":"2020","journal-title":"Anaesth. Crit. Care Pain Med."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100570","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2020.100570","article-title":"The utility of high-flow nasal oxygen for severe COVID-19 pneumonia in a resource-constrained setting: A multi-centre prospective observational study","volume":"28","author":"Calligaro","year":"2020","journal-title":"EClinicalMedicine"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"546","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.0028","article-title":"Effect of Noninvasive Respiratory Strategies on Intubation or Mortality Among Patients With Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure and COVID-19: The RECOVERY-RS Randomized Clinical Trial","volume":"327","author":"Perkins","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7104e4","article-title":"Trends in Disease Severity and Health Care Utilization During the Early Omicron Variant Period Compared with Previous SARS-CoV-2 High Transmission Periods\u2013United States, December 2020-January 2022","volume":"71","author":"Iuliano","year":"2022","journal-title":"MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"623","DOI":"10.1007\/s00134-015-3693-5","article-title":"Failure of high-flow nasal cannula therapy may delay intubation and increase mortality","volume":"41","author":"Kang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Intensive Care Med."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17730","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-96762-1","article-title":"Outcomes of COVID-19 patients intubated after failure of non-invasive ventilation: A multicenter observational study","volume":"11","author":"Boscolo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1186\/s13054-021-03882-1","article-title":"Impact of time to intubation on mortality and pulmonary sequelae in critically ill patients with COVID-19: A prospective cohort study","volume":"26","author":"Torres","year":"2022","journal-title":"Crit. Care Lond. Engl."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcrc.2021.08.012","article-title":"ROX index as a good predictor of high flow nasal cannula failure in COVID-19 patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"66","author":"Prakash","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Crit. Care"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1760","DOI":"10.1161\/ATVBAHA.120.315595","article-title":"Vascular Endothelial Damage in the Pathogenesis of Organ Injury in Severe COVID-19","volume":"41","author":"Dupont","year":"2021","journal-title":"Arterioscler. Thromb. Vasc. Biol."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1177\/0003319720961267","article-title":"Serum Endocan Levels on Admission Are Associated With Worse Clinical Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients: A Pilot Study","volume":"72","author":"Medetalibeyoglu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Angiology"},{"key":"ref_11","unstructured":"(2020). WHO Working Group on the Clinical Characterisation and Management of COVID-19 infection A minimal common outcome measure set for COVID-19 clinical research. Lancet Infect. Dis., 20, e192\u2013e197."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"1","article-title":"Mice: Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations in R","volume":"45","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Stat. Softw."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cca.2020.03.022","article-title":"Thrombocytopenia is associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections: A meta-analysis","volume":"506","author":"Lippi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Clin. Chim. Acta Int. J. Clin. Chem."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barale, C., Melchionda, E., Morotti, A., and Russo, I. (2021). Prothrombotic Phenotype in COVID-19: Focus on Platelets. Int. J. Mol. Sci., 22.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijms222413638"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"942","DOI":"10.1177\/00033197211026044","article-title":"Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Serum Endocan Levels in Patients With COVID-19","volume":"72","author":"Cindoruk","year":"2021","journal-title":"Angiology"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1186\/s13054-018-2222-7","article-title":"Endocan, sepsis, pneumonia, and acute respiratory distress syndrome","volume":"22","author":"Gaudet","year":"2018","journal-title":"Crit. Care Lond. Engl."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1749","DOI":"10.1007\/s10096-017-2988-6","article-title":"Increase of circulating endocan over sepsis follow-up is associated with progression into organ dysfunction","volume":"36","author":"Ioakeimidou","year":"2017","journal-title":"Eur. J. Clin. Microbiol. Infect. Dis. Off. Publ. Eur. Soc. Clin. Microbiol."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"535","DOI":"10.1016\/j.athoracsur.2017.07.031","article-title":"Is Endocan a Diagnostic Marker for Pneumonia After Cardiac Surgery? The ENDOLUNG Study","volume":"105","author":"Perrotti","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ann. Thorac. Surg."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1159\/000479337","article-title":"Relevance of Endothelial Cell-Specific Molecule 1 (Endocan) Plasma Levels for Predicting Pulmonary Infection after Cardiac Surgery in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients: The Endolung Pilot Study","volume":"8","author":"Perrotti","year":"2017","journal-title":"Cardiorenal Med."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Alberdi-Iglesias, A., Mart\u00edn-Rodr\u00edguez, F., Ortega Rabbione, G., Rubio-Babiano, A.I., N\u00fa\u00f1ez-Toste, M.G., Sanz-Garc\u00eda, A., Del Pozo Vegas, C., Castro Villamor, M.A., Mart\u00edn-Conty, J.L., and Jorge-Soto, C. (2021). Role of SpO2\/FiO2 Ratio and ROX Index in Predicting Early Invasive Mechanical Ventilation in COVID-19. A Pragmatic, Retrospective, Multi-Center Study. Biomedicines, 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/biomedicines9081036"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22559","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-02078-5","article-title":"Comparison of ROX and HACOR scales to predict high-flow nasal cannula failure in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia","volume":"11","author":"Valencia","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106638","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rmed.2021.106638","article-title":"ROX index as predictor of high flow nasal cannula therapy success in acute respiratory failure due to SARS-CoV-2","volume":"189","author":"Ferrer","year":"2021","journal-title":"Respir. Med."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e29062","DOI":"10.2196\/29062","article-title":"Utility of the ROX Index in Predicting Intubation for Patients With COVID-19-Related Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure Receiving High-Flow Nasal Therapy: Retrospective Cohort Study","volume":"2","author":"Patel","year":"2021","journal-title":"JMIRx Med."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e166","DOI":"10.1016\/S2589-7500(20)30316-2","article-title":"A simple nomogram for predicting failure of non-invasive respiratory strategies in adults with COVID-19: A retrospective multicentre study","volume":"3","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Digit. Health"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2017","DOI":"10.2147\/JMDH.S322431","article-title":"Early Prediction of COVID-19 Ventilation Requirement and Mortality from Routinely Collected Baseline Chest Radiographs, Laboratory, and Clinical Data with Machine Learning","volume":"14","author":"Aljouie","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Multidiscip. Healthc."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103794","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbi.2021.103794","article-title":"A predictive model of clinical deterioration among hospitalized COVID-19 patients by harnessing hospital course trajectories","volume":"118","author":"Mauer","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Biomed. Inform."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Karagiannidis, C., Hentschker, C., Westhoff, M., Weber-Carstens, S., Janssens, U., Kluge, S., Pfeifer, M., Spies, C., Welte, T., and Rossaint, R. (2022). Observational study of changes in utilization and outcomes in mechanical ventilation in COVID-19. PLoS ONE, 17.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0262315"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e200126","DOI":"10.1148\/ryct.2020200126","article-title":"Thin-Section Chest CT Imaging of COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Comparison Between Patients with Mild and Severe Disease","volume":"2","author":"Yu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Radiol. Cardiothorac. Imaging"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1072","DOI":"10.2214\/AJR.20.22976","article-title":"Relation Between Chest CT Findings and Clinical Conditions of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pneumonia: A Multicenter Study","volume":"214","author":"Zhao","year":"2020","journal-title":"AJR Am. J. Roentgenol."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E186","DOI":"10.1148\/radiol.2020201544","article-title":"Acute Pulmonary Embolism Associated with COVID-19 Pneumonia Detected with Pulmonary CT Angiography","volume":"296","author":"Grillet","year":"2020","journal-title":"Radiology"}],"container-title":["Journal of Clinical Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2077-0383\/11\/8\/2172\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T22:53:16Z","timestamp":1760136796000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2077-0383\/11\/8\/2172"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,13]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]}},"alternative-id":["jcm11082172"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/jcm11082172","relation":{},"ISSN":["2077-0383"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2077-0383"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,13]]}}}