{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]],"date-time":"2025-10-15T18:09:26Z","timestamp":1760551766003,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,28]],"date-time":"2022-07-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1658966400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JCM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>(1) Background: The clinical burden of aortic stenosis (AS) remains high in Western countries. Yet, there are no screening algorithms for this condition. We developed a risk prediction model to guide targeted screening for patients with AS. (2) Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of all echocardiographic studies performed between 2013 and 2018 at a tertiary academic care center. We included reports of unique patients aged from 40 to 95 years. A logistic regression model was fitted for the risk of moderate and severe AS, with readily available demographics and comorbidity variables. Model performance was assessed by the C-index, and its calibration was judged by a calibration plot. (3) Results: Among the 38,788 reports yielded by inclusion criteria, there were 4200 (10.8%) patients with \u2265moderate AS. The multivariable model demonstrated multiple variables to be associated with AS, including age, male gender, Caucasian race, Body Mass Index \u2265 30, and cardiovascular comorbidities and medications. C-statistics of the model was 0.77 and was well calibrated according to the calibration plot. An integer point system was developed to calculate the predicted risk of \u2265moderate AS, which ranged from 0.0002 to 0.7711. The lower 20% of risk was approximately 0.15 (corresponds to a score of 252), while the upper 20% of risk was about 0.60 (corresponds to a score of 332 points). (4) Conclusions: We developed a risk prediction model to predict patients\u2019 risk of having \u2265moderate AS based on demographic and clinical variables from a large population cohort. This tool may guide targeted screening for patients with advanced AS in the general population.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm11154386","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,28]],"date-time":"2022-07-28T22:43:26Z","timestamp":1659048206000},"page":"4386","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Screening Tool to Identify Patients with Advanced Aortic Valve Stenosis"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Sameh","family":"Yousef","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4689-3871","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Amabile","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chirag","family":"Ram","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Huang","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Section of Surgical Outcomes and Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Varun","family":"Korutla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6419-6300","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Saket","family":"Singh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ritu","family":"Agarwal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Joint Data Analytics Team, Information Technology Service, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Roland","family":"Assi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rita K.","family":"Milewski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9762-7752","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yawei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Section of Surgical Outcomes and Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Prakash A.","family":"Patel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Anesthesiology, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Markus","family":"Krane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Arnar","family":"Geirsson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Prashanth","family":"Vallabhajosyula","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiac Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, 330 Cedar Street BB204, New Haven, CT 06511, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.4330\/wjc.v2.i6.135","article-title":"Aortic stenosis: An update","volume":"2","author":"Nathaniel","year":"2010","journal-title":"World J. 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