{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,2]],"date-time":"2026-02-02T23:02:55Z","timestamp":1770073375648,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,25]],"date-time":"2023-01-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1674604800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"AbbVie"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JCM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The aim was to identify patient- and disease-related characteristics predicting moderate-to-high disease activity in recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits) in patients aged \u226518 years who fulfilled the CASPAR criteria and had less than 2 years since the onset of symptoms. The moderate-to-high activity of PsA was defined as DAPSA &gt; 14. We trained a logistic regression model and random forest\u2013type and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to analyze the association between the outcome measure and the variables selected in the bivariate analysis. The sample comprised 158 patients. At the first follow-up visit, 20.8% of the patients who attended the clinic had a moderate-to-severe disease. This percentage rose to 21.2% on the second visit. The variables predicting moderate-high activity were the PsAID score, tender joint count, level of physical activity, and sex. The mean values of the measures of validity of the machine learning algorithms were all high, especially sensitivity (98%; 95% CI: 86.89\u2013100.00). PsAID was the most important variable in the prediction algorithms, reinforcing the convenience of its inclusion in daily clinical practice. Strategies that focus on the needs of women with PsA should be considered.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm12030931","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,26]],"date-time":"2023-01-26T02:29:31Z","timestamp":1674700171000},"page":"931","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis\u2014Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8418-7145","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rub\u00e9n","family":"Queiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology Service & the Principality of Asturias Institute for Health Research (ISPA), Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Oviedo, 33006 Oviedo, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5430-039X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel","family":"Seoane-Mato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Unit, Spanish Society of Rheumatology, 28001 Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2820-4801","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana","family":"Laiz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology and Autoimmune Disease Department, Hospital Universitari de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, 08025 Barcelona, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eva","family":"Galindez Agirregoikoa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology Service, Hospital Universitario Basurto, 48013 Bilbao, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Carlos","family":"Montilla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology Service, Hospital Universitario de Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4972-9527","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hye S.","family":"Park","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology and Autoimmune Disease Department, Hospital Universitari de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, 08025 Barcelona, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4993-8185","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jose A. Pinto","family":"Tasende","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology Service-INIBIC, Complexo Hospitalario Universitario de A Coru\u00f1a, 15006 A Coru\u00f1a, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9382-9234","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Juan J. Bethencourt","family":"Baute","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology Service, Hospital Universitario de Canarias, 38320 Sta. Cruz de Tenerife, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Beatriz","family":"Joven Ib\u00e1\u00f1ez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology Service, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, 28041 Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Elide","family":"Toniolo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rheumatology Service, Hospital Universitari Son Ll\u00e0tzer, 07198 Palma de Mallorca, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Julio","family":"Ram\u00edrez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Arthritis Unit, Rheumatology Department, Hospital Cl\u00ednic Barcelona, 08036 Barcelona, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nuria","family":"Montero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Unit, Spanish Society of Rheumatology, 28001 Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Cristina","family":"Pruenza Garc\u00eda-Hinojosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Knowledge Engineering Institute, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ana","family":"Serrano Garc\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Knowledge Engineering Institute, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"name":"on behalf of the Proyecto REAPSER Study","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"957","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra1505557","article-title":"Psoriatic Arthritis","volume":"376","author":"Ritchlin","year":"2017","journal-title":"N. 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