{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T16:12:18Z","timestamp":1787242338325,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,12]],"date-time":"2025-05-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1747008000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JCM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Objective: This study seeks to forecast the global burden of diabetes-related mortality by type, age group, WHO region, and income classification through 2030, and to assess progress toward Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4, which aims to reduce premature mortality (among people age 30\u201370 years) from noncommunicable diseases (including diabetes) by one-third. Methods: We analyzed diabetes mortality data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Global Burden of Disease 2019, covering 30 years (1990\u20132019). Using this historical dataset, we generated 11-year prospective forecasts (2020\u20132030) globally and stratified by diabetes type (type 1, type 2), age groups, WHO regions, and World Bank income classifications. We employed multiple time series and epidemic modeling approaches to enhance predictive accuracy, including ARIMA, GAM, GLM, Facebook\u2019s Prophet, n-sub-epidemic, and spatial wave models. We compared model outputs to identify consistent patterns and trends. Results: Our forecasts indicate a substantial increase in global diabetes-related mortality, with type 2 diabetes driving the majority of deaths. By 2030, annual diabetes mortality is projected to reach 1.63 million deaths (95% PI: 1.48\u20131.91 million), reflecting a 10% increase compared to 2019. Particularly concerning is the projected rise in mortality among adults aged 15\u201349 and 50\u201369 years, especially in Southeast Asia and low- and middle-income countries. Mortality in upper-middle-income countries is also expected to increase significantly, exceeding a 50% rise compared to 2019. Conclusions: Diabetes-related deaths are rising globally, particularly in younger and middle-aged adults in resource-limited settings. These trends jeopardize the achievement of SDG 3.4. Urgent action is needed to strengthen prevention, early detection, and management strategies, especially in Southeast Asia and low-income regions. Our findings provide data-driven insights to inform global policy and target public health interventions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm14103364","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,12]],"date-time":"2025-05-12T09:13:38Z","timestamp":1747041218000},"page":"3364","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["The Future Diabetes Mortality: Challenges in Meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal of Reducing Premature Mortality from Diabetes"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Kaustubh","family":"Wagh","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alexander","family":"Kirpich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2194-2251","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gerardo","family":"Chowell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA"},{"name":"Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107843","DOI":"10.1016\/j.diabres.2019.107843","article-title":"Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition","volume":"157","author":"Saeedi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Diabetes Res. 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