{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,29]],"date-time":"2026-08-29T06:42:24Z","timestamp":1787985744575,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,5]],"date-time":"2022-08-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1659657600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)"},{"name":"University of Nottingham"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JPM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Bicuspid aortic valve disease (BAV) is the most common congenital heart condition, and early detection can improve outcomes for patients. In this case\u2013control study, patients with a diagnosis of BAV were identified from their electronic primary-care records in the UK\u2019s Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Each case was propensity-score matched to up to five controls. The clinical features recorded before diagnosis were compared. The proposed clinical features shown to be associated with BAV (p &lt; 0.05) were incorporated into a multivariable regression model. We identified 2898 cases. The prevalence of BAV in the CPRD was 1 in 5181, significantly lower than expected, suggesting that diagnosis and\/or recording could be improved. The following biologically plausible clinical features were associated with a subsequent diagnosis of BAV: palpitations (OR: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.60, 3.16)), atrial fibrillation (AF) (OR: 2.25 (95% CI: 1.60, 3.16)) and hypertension (OR: 1.72 (1.48, 2.00)). The best model had an AUC of 0.669 (95% CI: 0.658 to 0.680), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 5.9% (95% CI: 4.0% to 8.7%) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99% (95% CI: 99% to 99%) at a population prevalence of 1%. This study indicates that palpitations, hypertension and AF should trigger a clinical suspicion of BAV and assessment via echocardiography. It also demonstrates the potential to develop a prediction model for BAV to stratify patients for echocardiography screening.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jpm12081290","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,7]],"date-time":"2022-08-07T22:51:46Z","timestamp":1659912706000},"page":"1290","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Identifying Patients with Bicuspid Aortic Valve Disease in UK Primary Care: A Case\u2013Control Study and Prediction Model"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0337-1221","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"William","family":"Evans","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Primary Care Stratified Medicine (PRISM), Centre for Academic Primary Care, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4529-8237","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ralph Kwame","family":"Akyea","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Primary Care Stratified Medicine (PRISM), Centre for Academic Primary Care, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Weng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistical Decision Sciences, Cardiovascular and Metabolism, Janssen Research and Development, High Wycombe HP12 4EG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9040-9384","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joe","family":"Kai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Primary Care Stratified Medicine (PRISM), Centre for Academic Primary Care, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4909-0644","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nadeem","family":"Qureshi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Primary Care Stratified Medicine (PRISM), Centre for Academic Primary Care, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"603","article-title":"Familial clustering of bicuspid aortic valve and its relationship with aortic dilation in first-degree relatives","volume":"105","author":"Maldonado","year":"2019","journal-title":"Heart"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"832","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2014.04.073","article-title":"A Roadmap to Investigate the Genetic Basis of Bicuspid Aortic Valve and its Complications","volume":"64","author":"Prakash","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. 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