{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T04:52:19Z","timestamp":1787028739284,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,13]],"date-time":"2024-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1728777600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Ministry of Health &amp; Welfare, Republic of Korea","award":["RS-2022-KH129294"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RS-2022-KH129294"]}]},{"name":"2024 Advanced Facility Fund of the University of Seoul","award":["RS-2022-KH129294"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RS-2022-KH129294"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JPM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: Prostate cancer is the fourth most common cancer and eighth leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Its incidence is increasing in South Korea. This study aimed to investigate a predictive model for the 5-year survival probability of prostate cancer patients in a Korean primary care setting. Method: This retrospective study used data from the nationwide insurance claims database. The main outcome was survival probability 5 years after the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. Potential confounding factors such as age, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, laboratory results, lifestyle behaviors, household income, and comorbidity index were considered. These variables were available in the national health check-up information. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to develop the predictive model. The predictive performance was calculated based on the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) after 10-fold cross-validation. Results: The mean 5-year survival probability was 82.0%. Age, fasting glucose and gamma-glutamyl transferase levels, current smoking, and multiple comorbidities were positively associated with mortality, whereas BMI, alkaline phosphatase levels, total cholesterol levels, alcohol intake, physical activity, and household income were inversely associated with mortality. The mean AUC after 10-fold cross-validation was 0.71. Conclusions: The 5-year survival probability model showed a moderately good predictive performance. This may be useful in predicting the survival probability of prostate cancer patients in primary care settings. When interpreting these results, potential limitations, such as selection or healthy user biases, should be considered.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jpm14101058","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,14]],"date-time":"2024-10-14T04:02:58Z","timestamp":1728878578000},"page":"1058","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["A 5-Year Mortality Prediction Model for Prostate Cancer Patients Based on the Korean Nationwide Health Insurance Claims Database"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Joungyoun","family":"Kim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Artificial Intelligence, University of Seoul, Seoul 02540, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-0121-5184","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yong-Hoon","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics and Computing, Yonsei University Graduate School, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7021-2450","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yong-June","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Urology, Chungbuk National University Hospital, Cheongju 28644, Republic of Korea"},{"name":"Department of Urology, College of Medicine, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hee-Taik","family":"Kang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Family Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2023.447","article-title":"Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2020","volume":"55","author":"Kang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21834","article-title":"Global cancer statistics 2022; GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries","volume":"74","author":"Bray","year":"2024","journal-title":"CA Cancer J. Clin."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"(2024, August 31). Global Cancer Observatory. Available online: https:\/\/gco.iarc.who.int\/media\/globocan\/factsheets\/populations\/900-world-fact-sheet.pdf."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2024.253","article-title":"Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2021","volume":"56","author":"Park","year":"2024","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.4082\/kjfm.22.0052","article-title":"Current Status of the National Health Screening Programs in South Korea","volume":"43","author":"Kang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Korean J. Fam. Med."},{"key":"ref_6","first-page":"e2400094","article-title":"Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Prostate Cancer Mortality: An Emulation of Target Trials in US Medicare","volume":"8","author":"Hsu","year":"2024","journal-title":"JCO Clin. Cancer Inform."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"k3519","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.k3519","article-title":"Prostate cancer screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"362","author":"Ilic","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"ref_8","first-page":"1242","article-title":"Cause of Mortality after Radical Prostatectomy and the Impact of Comorbidity in Men with Prostate Cancer: A Multi-institutional Study in Korea","volume":"52","author":"Pak","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20000","DOI":"10.1002\/cam4.6553","article-title":"Cardiorespiratory fitness and BMI measured in youth and 5-year mortality after site-specific cancer diagnoses in men-A population-based cohort study with register linkage","volume":"12","author":"Onerup","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cancer Med."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1043","DOI":"10.3349\/ymj.2022.0273","article-title":"Impact of Cardiovascular Diseases on Mortality in Gastric Cancer Patients with Preexisting Chronic Disease","volume":"63","author":"Han","year":"2022","journal-title":"Yonsei Med. J."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e3684","DOI":"10.1097\/MD.0000000000003684","article-title":"Body Mass Index and Cancer Mortality Among Korean Older Middle-Aged Men: A Prospective Cohort Study","volume":"95","author":"Hong","year":"2016","journal-title":"Medicine"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5017","DOI":"10.1007\/s00520-022-06911-z","article-title":"Physical exercise habits, lifestyle behaviors, and motivation to change among men with prostate cancer: A cross-sectional study","volume":"30","author":"Bressi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Support Care Cancer"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prnil.2019.08.001","article-title":"A review of social determinants of prostate cancer risk, stage, and survival","volume":"8","author":"Coughlin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Prostate Int."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service (2024, August 31). Special Diseases. Available online: https:\/\/www.hira.or.kr\/dummy.do?pgmid=HIRAA030037000000&isPopupYn=Y&isNewWindow=Y&cmsurl=\/cms\/popup\/03\/03\/1344228_26965.html."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309.e15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.urolonc.2018.02.016","article-title":"The risk of prostate cancer mortality and cardiovascular mortality of nonmetastatic prostate cancer patients: A population-based retrospective cohort study","volume":"36","author":"Matthes","year":"2018","journal-title":"Urol. Oncol."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atherosclerosis.2014.06.006","article-title":"Liver enzymes and risk of cardiovascular disease in the general population: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies","volume":"236","author":"Kunutsor","year":"2014","journal-title":"Atherosclerosis"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"533","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atherosclerosis.2008.12.012","article-title":"Elevated alanine aminotransferase levels predict mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes in Koreans","volume":"205","author":"Yun","year":"2009","journal-title":"Atherosclerosis"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1016\/0021-9681(87)90171-8","article-title":"A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: Development and validation","volume":"40","author":"Charlson","year":"1987","journal-title":"J. Chronic Dis."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"452","DOI":"10.1111\/ggi.12129","article-title":"Validation study of Charlson Comorbidity Index in predicting mortality in Chinese older adults","volume":"14","author":"Chan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Geriatr. Gerontol. Int."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.1161\/01.STR.22.3.312","article-title":"Probability of stroke: A risk profile from the Framingham Study","volume":"22","author":"Wolf","year":"1991","journal-title":"Stroke"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"318","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atherosclerosis.2007.05.014","article-title":"Stroke risk prediction model: A risk profile from the Korean study","volume":"197","author":"Jee","year":"2008","journal-title":"Atherosclerosis"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1148\/radiology.143.1.7063747","article-title":"The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve","volume":"143","author":"Hanley","year":"1982","journal-title":"Radiology"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eururo.2019.08.005","article-title":"Recent Global Patterns in Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates","volume":"77","author":"Culp","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eur. Urol."},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"National Cancer Center (2024, August 31). Annual Cancer Statistics Reports in 2021. Available online: https:\/\/ncc.re.kr\/cancerStatsView.ncc?bbsnum=678&searchKey=total&searchValue=&pageNum=1."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1097\/JU.0000000000003491","article-title":"Early Detection of Prostate Cancer: AUA\/SUO Guideline Part I: Prostate Cancer Screening","volume":"210","author":"Wei","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Urol."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2119568","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2021.19568","article-title":"Causes of Death Among Patients With Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the US From 2000 to 2016","volume":"4","author":"Elmehrath","year":"2021","journal-title":"JAMA Netw. Open"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"400","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdw604","article-title":"Causes of death among cancer patients","volume":"28","author":"Zaorsky","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ann. Oncol."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"326","DOI":"10.1158\/1055-9965.EPI-20-1084","article-title":"Conditional Relative Survival and Competing Mortality of Patients with Prostate Cancer in Korea: A Nationwide Cohort Study","volume":"30","author":"Park","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiol. Biomark. Prev."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2469","DOI":"10.1007\/s00345-020-03080-8","article-title":"Long short-term memory artificial neural network model for prediction of prostate cancer survival outcomes according to initial treatment strategy: Development of an online decision-making support system","volume":"38","author":"Koo","year":"2020","journal-title":"World J. Urol."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114","DOI":"10.1097\/SLA.0000000000001523","article-title":"A Novel Prediction Model of Prognosis After Gastrectomy for Gastric Carcinoma: Development and Validation Using Asian Databases","volume":"264","author":"Woo","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ann. Surg."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"380","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2023.650","article-title":"Health Inequities in Cancer Incidence According to Economic Status and Regions Are Still Existed even under Universal Health Coverage System in Korea: A Nationwide Population Based Study using National Health Insurance Database","volume":"56","author":"Chang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"299","DOI":"10.1016\/j.je.2016.07.004","article-title":"Difference of stage at cancer diagnosis by socioeconomic status for four target cancers of the National Cancer Screening Program in Korea: Results from the Gwangju and Jeonnam cancer registries","volume":"27","author":"Kweon","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1186\/s12939-016-0341-9","article-title":"Socioeconomic Inequality in mortality using 12-year follow-up data from nationally representative surveys in South Korea","volume":"15","author":"Khang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Equity Health"}],"container-title":["Journal of Personalized Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2075-4426\/14\/10\/1058\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T16:12:30Z","timestamp":1760112750000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2075-4426\/14\/10\/1058"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,13]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,10]]}},"alternative-id":["jpm14101058"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/jpm14101058","relation":{},"ISSN":["2075-4426"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2075-4426","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,13]]}}}