{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,16]],"date-time":"2026-05-16T12:21:49Z","timestamp":1778934109035,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,26]],"date-time":"2023-07-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1690329600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Medicina"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background and Objectives: Pulmonary complications are a leading cause of morbidity after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to develop models to predict postoperative lung dysfunction and mortality. Materials and Methods: This was a single-center, observational, retrospective study. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 11,285 adult patients who underwent all types of cardiac surgery from 2003 to 2015. We developed logistic predictive models for in-hospital mortality, postoperative pulmonary complications occurring in the intensive care unit, and postoperative non-invasive mechanical ventilation when clinically indicated. Results: In the \u201cpreoperative model\u201d predictors for mortality were advanced age (p &lt; 0.001), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class (p &lt; 0.001) and emergent surgery (p = 0.036); predictors for non-invasive mechanical ventilation were advanced age (p &lt; 0.001), low ejection fraction (p = 0.023), higher body mass index (p &lt; 0.001) and preoperative renal failure (p = 0.043); predictors for postoperative pulmonary complications were preoperative chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p = 0.007), preoperative kidney injury (p &lt; 0.001) and NYHA class (p = 0.033). In the \u201csurgery model\u201d predictors for mortality were intraoperative inotropes (p = 0.003) and intraoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (p &lt; 0.001), which also predicted the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. There were no specific variables in the surgery model predicting the use of non-invasive mechanical ventilation. In the \u201cintensive care unit model\u201d, predictors for mortality were postoperative kidney injury (p &lt; 0.001), tracheostomy (p &lt; 0.001), inotropes (p = 0.029) and PaO2\/FiO2 ratio at discharge (p = 0.028); predictors for non-invasive mechanical ventilation were kidney injury (p &lt; 0.001), inotropes (p &lt; 0.001), blood transfusions (p &lt; 0.001) and PaO2\/FiO2 ratio at the discharge (p &lt; 0.001). Conclusions: In this retrospective study, we identified the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative characteristics associated with mortality and complications following cardiac surgery.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/medicina59081368","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,27]],"date-time":"2023-07-27T01:27:46Z","timestamp":1690421266000},"page":"1368","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Three Logistic Predictive Models for the Prediction of Mortality and Major Pulmonary Complications after Cardiac Surgery"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"59","author":[{"given":"Elena","family":"Bignami","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine Division, Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Viale Gramsci 14, 43126 Parma, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1922-6996","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marcello","family":"Guarnieri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Grande Ospedale Metropolitano Niguarda, 20162 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3889-2406","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ilaria","family":"Giambuzzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Centro Cardiologico Monzino-IRCCS, 20122 Milan, Italy"},{"name":"Department of Clinical and Community Sciences, DISCCO University of Milan, 20126 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2410-3218","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cinzia","family":"Trumello","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiac Surgery, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, 20132 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8767-6577","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francesco","family":"Saglietti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Azienda Ospedaliera Santa Croce e Carle, 12100 Cuneo, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stefano","family":"Gianni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Grande Ospedale Metropolitano Niguarda, 20162 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Igor","family":"Belluschi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiac Surgery, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, 20132 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nora","family":"Di Tomasso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, 20132 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Daniele","family":"Corti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, 20132 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ottavio","family":"Alfieri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiac Surgery, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, 20132 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Marco","family":"Gemma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Intensive Care Unit, Department of Neurosurgery, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta, 20133 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1016\/j.athoracsur.2011.07.086","article-title":"The society of thoracic surgeons 30-day predicted risk of mortality score also predicts long-term survival","volume":"93","author":"Puskas","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ann. 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