{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T05:17:59Z","timestamp":1787807879052,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Fundaci\u00f3n IMSS, A.C.","award":["R-2022-785-029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R-2022-785-029"]}]},{"award":["R-2022-785-029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R-2022-785-029"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03y4g9k62","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016991","name":"Universidad de Guadalajara","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016991","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/043xj7k26","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Med. Sci.","Medical Sciences"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background\/Objectives: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), increasing morbidity and prolonging hospitalization. This study aimed to develop and validate an exploratory prediction model that integrates perioperative inflammatory biomarkers with clinical and surgical variables to identify patients at risk of early POAF. Methods: A prospective exploratory cohort of 89 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG; n = 36), valve surgery (n = 40), or CABG\u2013valve surgery (n = 13) was evaluated. Clinical, surgical, and proinflammatory serum biomarkers (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and CRP) were recorded preoperatively (T1) and at 24 h (T2) and 48 h (T3) postoperatively. Multiple-comparison adjustments were made using the Benjamini\u2013Hochberg false discovery rate. Predictor selection was based on bootstrap-derived stability using LASSO-penalized logistic regression, and the final model was estimated using Firth\u2019s bias-reduced logistic regression. Results: POAF incidence was 8.3% in CABG, in contrast to 22.5% and 30.8% in valve and CABG-valve surgeries, respectively. After multiple-comparison corrections, only IL-6 at T2 postoperatively was significantly higher in patients who subsequently developed POAF. Bootstrap-based stability selection retained T2 postoperative IL-10 and magnesium concentrations in the final model, which achieved an apparent AUC of 0.776 and a bootstrap optimism-corrected AUC of 0.728, with acceptable calibration (Brier score = 0.103), negligible multicollinearity (VIF = 1.04), and a negative predictive value of 95.5% at the optimal Youden threshold. Conclusions: Our findings support an exploratory prediction model with moderate discrimination for POAF after cardiac surgery with CPB, providing a methodological foundation for future multicenter validation studies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/medsci14050513","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T09:04:30Z","timestamp":1787648670000},"page":"513","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Exploratory Modeling of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery with Cardiopulmonary Bypass Using Inflammatory Biomarkers and Clinical-Surgical Factors"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-4017-645X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rosa Michel","family":"Mart\u00ednez-Contreras","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Doctorado en Gen\u00e9tica Humana, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"},{"name":"Divisi\u00f3n de Gen\u00e9tica, Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marina Mar\u00eda de Jes\u00fas","family":"Romero-Prado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Biolog\u00eda Molecular en Medicina y Terapia G\u00e9nica, Departamento de Fisiolog\u00eda, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karla Mayela","family":"Bravo-Villagra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Doctorado en Gen\u00e9tica Humana, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"},{"name":"Instituto de Nutrigen\u00e9tica y Nutrigen\u00f3mica, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aneth Karine","family":"S\u00e1nchez-Soto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Guadalajara, Zapopan 45129, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1001-695X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eliseo","family":"Portilla-de Buen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Divisi\u00f3n de Investigaci\u00f3n Quir\u00fargica, Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guillermo Alejandro","family":"Mu\u00f1oz-Benavides","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hospital General de Topilejo, Secretar\u00eda de Salud de la Ciudad de M\u00e9xico, Mexico City 14500, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ram\u00f3n","family":"Arreola-Torres","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Servicio de Cardiocirug\u00eda, Unidad M\u00e9dica de Alta Especialidad del Hospital de Especialidades, Centro M\u00e9dico Nacional de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Marco","family":"Medina-Carrillo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Servicio de Cardiocirug\u00eda, Unidad M\u00e9dica de Alta Especialidad del Hospital de Especialidades, Centro M\u00e9dico Nacional de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jorge","family":"Straffon-Casta\u00f1eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Servicio de Cardiocirug\u00eda, Unidad M\u00e9dica de Alta Especialidad del Hospital de Especialidades, Centro M\u00e9dico Nacional de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joel","family":"Regalado-Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Servicio de Cardiocirug\u00eda, Unidad M\u00e9dica de Alta Especialidad del Hospital de Especialidades, Centro M\u00e9dico Nacional de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ana Rebeca","family":"Jaloma-Cruz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Divisi\u00f3n de Gen\u00e9tica, Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Guadalajara 44340, Jalisco, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e153","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0000000000001052","article-title":"Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics\u20142022 Update: A Report from the American Heart Association","volume":"145","author":"Tsao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"98","article-title":"Enfermedad cardiovascular: Primera causa de morbilidad en un hospital de tercer nivel","volume":"27","year":"2016","journal-title":"Rev. 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Surg."}],"container-title":["Medical Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3271\/14\/5\/513\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T04:22:21Z","timestamp":1787804541000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3271\/14\/5\/513"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["medsci14050513"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/medsci14050513","relation":{},"ISSN":["2076-3271"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2076-3271","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]}}}