{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T09:10:34Z","timestamp":1790759434296,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,17]],"date-time":"2022-03-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1647475200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002347","name":"Federal Ministry of Education and Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["01KI2010B"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["01KI2010B"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002347","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Microorganisms"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health problem with increasing incidence and expanding risk areas. Improved prevention requires better understanding of the spatial distribution and ecological determinants of TBE transmission. However, a TBE risk map at sub-district level is still missing for Germany. We investigated the distribution and geo-spatial characteristics of 567 self-reported places of probable TBE infection (POI) from 359 cases notified in 2018\u20132020 in the study area of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, compared to 41 confirmed TBE foci and 1701 random comparator places. We built an ecological niche model to interpolate TBE risk to the entire study area. POI were distributed heterogeneously at sub-district level, as predicted probabilities varied markedly across regions (range 0\u201393%). POI were spatially associated with abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic geo-spatial characteristics, including summer precipitation, population density, and annual frost days. The model performed with 69% sensitivity and 63% specificity at an optimised probability threshold (0.28) and an area under the curve of 0.73. We observed high predictive probabilities in small-scale areas, consistent with the known circulation of the TBE virus in spatially restricted microfoci. Supported by further field work, our findings may help identify new TBE foci. Our fine-grained risk map could supplement targeted prevention in risk areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/microorganisms10030643","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,20]],"date-time":"2022-03-20T21:34:27Z","timestamp":1647812067000},"page":"643","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018\u20132020"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3877-295X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amelie M.","family":"Friedsam","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestra\u00dfe 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3235-2129","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Oliver J.","family":"Brady","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Mathematical Modelling for Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6502-7982","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Antonia","family":"Pilic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestra\u00dfe 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gerhard","family":"Dobler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology of the German Armed Forces, 80937 Munich, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wiebke","family":"Hellenbrand","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestra\u00dfe 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2930-8095","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Teresa M.","family":"Nygren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Immunization Unit (FG33), Robert Koch Institute, Seestra\u00dfe 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ttbdis.2017.04.009","article-title":"Mapping the distribution of tick-borne encephalitis in mainland China","volume":"8","author":"Sun","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ticks Tick Borne Dis."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"430","DOI":"10.12998\/wjcc.v3.i5.430","article-title":"Tick-borne encephalitis: A review of epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and management","volume":"3","author":"Bogovic","year":"2015","journal-title":"World J. Clin. Cases"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hellenbrand, W., Kreusch, T., B\u00f6hmer, M.M., Wagner-Wiening, C., Dobler, G., Wichmann, O., and Altmann, D. (2019). Epidemiology of Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) in Germany, 2001\u20132018. Pathogens, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens8020042"},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Robert Koch Institut (2021, September 08). Fr\u00fchsommer-Meningoenzephalitis (FSME) und Verwandte Virusenzephalitiden (TBE, Tick-Borne Encephalitis). Available online: https:\/\/www.rki.de\/DE\/Content\/Infekt\/EpidBull\/Merkblaetter\/Ratgeber_FSME.html;jsessionid=36F76FE0F81E448D6F53E0EF2E18EBFB.internet072#doc2381918bodyText7."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2021, September 09). Tick-Borne Encephalitis. Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/health-topics\/tick-borne-encephalitis#tab=tab_1."},{"key":"ref_6","first-page":"1800201","article-title":"Tick-borne encephalitis in Europe, 2012 to 2016","volume":"23","author":"Spiteri","year":"2018","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"Robert Koch Institut (2022). FSME Risikogebiete in Deutschland (Stand: Januar 2022). Epidemiol. Bull., 9, 3\u201321."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Robert Koch Institut (2021, August 03). Zahl der FSME-Erkrankungen in Aktueller Zeckensaison h\u00f6her als in den Vorjahren. Available online: https:\/\/www.rki.de\/DE\/Content\/InfAZ\/F\/FSME\/FSME_2020.html;jsessionid=B455A023EDF815721A2E5FC456170155.internet111."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"(2021, September 05). Rekord an FSME-Infektionen: Corona K\u00f6nnte eine Rolle Spielen, Langfristiger Trend Bef\u00fcrchtet. Available online: https:\/\/www.aerzteblatt.de\/nachrichten\/121901\/Rekord-an-FSME-Infektionen-Corona-koennte-eine-Rolle-spielen-langfristiger-Trend-befuerchtet."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nygren, T.M., Pilic, A., B\u00f6hmer, M.M., Wagner-Wiening, C., Wichmann, O., and Hellenbrand, W. (2022). Tick-Borne Encephalitis: Acute Clinical Manifestations, Severity, and Quality of Life in 581 Cases from Germany, 2018\u20132020, manuscript submitted for publication.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2023.02.018"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"477","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-3057-4","article-title":"The importance of wildlife in the ecology and epidemiology of the TBE virus in Sweden: Incidence of human TBE correlates with abundance of deer and hares","volume":"11","author":"Jaenson","year":"2018","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1016\/j.antiviral.2014.05.016","article-title":"The ecology of ticks and epidemiology of tick-borne viral diseases","volume":"108","year":"2014","journal-title":"Antivir. Res."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.3389\/fcimb.2018.00090","article-title":"Increased Relative Risk of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Warmer Weather","volume":"8","author":"Daniel","year":"2018","journal-title":"Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.21101\/cejph.a3550","article-title":"Vertical Distribution of the Tick Ixodes ricinus and Tick-borne Pathogens in the Northern Moravian Mountains Correlated with Climate Warming (Jesen\u00edky Mts., Czech Republic)","volume":"17","author":"Daniel","year":"2009","journal-title":"Central Eur. J. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-2876-7","article-title":"Influence of climatic factors on Ixodes ricinus nymph abundance and phenology over a long-term monthly observation in Switzerland (2000\u20132014)","volume":"11","author":"Hauser","year":"2018","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijmm.2007.09.005","article-title":"Ixodes ricinus seasonal activity: Implications of global warming indicated by revisiting tick and weather data","volume":"298","author":"Gray","year":"2008","journal-title":"Int. J. Med. Microbiol."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2059","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268815000485","article-title":"Factors affecting the ecology of tick-borne encephalitis in Slovenia","volume":"143","author":"Knap","year":"2015","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stefanoff, P., Rubikowska, B., Bratkowski, J., Ustrnul, Z., Vanwambeke, S.O., and Rosi\u0144ska, M. (2018). A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999\u20132012. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph15040677"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101457","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ttbdis.2020.101457","article-title":"Modelling habitat suitability for occurrence of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases in Finland","volume":"11","author":"Uusitalo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ticks Tick-Borne Dis."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182099006083","article-title":"Seasonal synchrony: The key to tick-borne encephalitis foci identified by satellite data","volume":"121","author":"Randolph","year":"2000","journal-title":"Parasitology"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-6-1","article-title":"Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe","volume":"6","author":"Medlock","year":"2013","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1045","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2001.0893","article-title":"The shifting landscape of tick-borne zoonoses: Tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in Europe","volume":"356","author":"Randolph","year":"2001","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"180","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-6-180","article-title":"New endemic foci of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) identified in districts where testing for TBE was not available before 2009 in Poland","volume":"6","author":"Stefanoff","year":"2013","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101579","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ttbdis.2020.101579","article-title":"Operational TBE incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland 2019\u20132021","volume":"12","author":"Rubel","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ticks Tick-Borne Dis."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1292","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjw116","article-title":"A Density Map of the Tick-Borne Encephalitis and Lyme Borreliosis Vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) for Germany","volume":"53","author":"Brugger","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Robert Koch Institut (2021, September 22). Karte der FSME-Risikogebiete. Available online: https:\/\/www.rki.de\/DE\/Content\/InfAZ\/F\/FSME\/Karte_Tab.html."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"QGIS Development Team (2021, July 15). QGIS Geographic Information System. Available online: https:\/\/www.qgis.org\/de\/site\/."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"230","DOI":"10.1007\/s10354-012-0100-5","article-title":"Epidemiology and distribution of tick-borne encephalitis","volume":"162","author":"Dobler","year":"2012","journal-title":"Wien. Med. Wochenschr."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mehlhorn, H. (2011). Tick-Borne Encephalitis: From Microfocus to Human Disease. Progress in Parasitology, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-21396-0"},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Lindau, A. (2019). Untersuchung Viraler, Zoonotischer Erreger in Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg. [Ph.D. Thesis, Universit\u00e4t Hohenheim]."},{"key":"ref_31","first-page":"24","article-title":"Altitudinal distribution limit of the tick Ixodes ricinus shifted considerably towards higher altitudes in Central Europe: Results of three years monitoring in the Krkono\u0161e Mts. (Czech Republic)","volume":"13","author":"Materna","year":"2005","journal-title":"Cent. Eur. J. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"1764693","article-title":"Spatial tick bite exposure and associated risk factors in Scandinavia","volume":"10","author":"Jore","year":"2020","journal-title":"Infect. Ecol. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Clarke-Crespo, E., Moreno-Arzate, C.N., and L\u00f3pez-Gonz\u00e1lez, C.A. (2020). Ecological Niche Models of Four Hard Tick Genera (Ixodidae) in Mexico. Animals, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/ani10040649"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"865","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2012.1194","article-title":"High Risk of Tick Bites in Dutch Gardens","volume":"13","author":"Mulder","year":"2013","journal-title":"Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijheh.2007.12.001","article-title":"Analysis of the distribution of the tick Ixodes ricinus L. (Acari: Ixodidae) in a nature reserve of western Germany using Geographic Information Systems","volume":"212","author":"Schwarz","year":"2009","journal-title":"Int. J. Hyg. Environ. Health"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1186\/s12942-015-0015-7","article-title":"Estimating Ixodes ricinus densities on the landscape scale","volume":"14","author":"Boehnke","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int. J. Health Geogr."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"56","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1948-7134.2014.12070.x","article-title":"Abundance and seasonal activity of questing Ixodes Ricinus ticks in their natural habitats in southern Germany in 2011","volume":"39","author":"Schulz","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Vector Ecol."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"843","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1910(97)00025-5","article-title":"Cold hardiness, supercooling ability and causes of low-temperature mortality in the soft tick, Argas reflexus, and the hard tick, Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodoidea) from Central Europe","volume":"43","author":"Dautel","year":"1997","journal-title":"J. Insect Physiol."},{"key":"ref_39","first-page":"3","article-title":"Impfquoten bei Erwachsenen in Deutschland\u2014Aktuelles aus der KV-Impfsurveillance und der Onlinebefragung von Krankenhauspersonal OKaPII","volume":"47","author":"Rieck","year":"2020","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Bull."},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Bundesamt f\u00fcr Kartographie und Geod\u00e4sie (2021, November 23). Verwaltungsgebiete 1:250,000 Aktualisiert, Stand 2019. Available online: https:\/\/www.bkg.bund.de\/SharedDocs\/Produktinformationen\/BKG\/DE\/P-2021\/210127_VG250.html."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Bundesamt f\u00fcr Kartographie und Geod\u00e4sie (2021, July 20). Digitales Gel\u00e4ndemodell Gitterweite 200 m (DGM200). Available online: https:\/\/gdz.bkg.bund.de\/index.php\/default\/digitales-gelandemodell-gitterweite-200-m-dgm200.html."},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"Bundesamt f\u00fcr Kartographie und Geod\u00e4sie (2021, July 10). Digitales Landbedeckungsmodell f\u00fcr Deutschland (LBM-DE2018). Available online: https:\/\/gdz.bkg.bund.de\/index.php\/default\/digitales-landbedeckungsmodell-fur-deutschland-stand-2018-lbm-de2018.html."},{"key":"ref_43","unstructured":"Deutscher Wetterdienst (2021, September 30). Open Data Bereich des Climate Data Center. Available online: https:\/\/www.dwd.de\/DE\/leistungen\/cdc\/climate-data-center.html;jsessionid=9E22FEE9BE12F436B7A14F110C7FB81D.live11042?nn=17626."},{"key":"ref_44","unstructured":"R Core Team (2021, July 10). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Available online: https:\/\/www.r-project.org\/."},{"key":"ref_45","unstructured":"Hair, J.F.J., Anderson, R.E., Tatham, R.L., and Black, W.C. (1995). Multivariate Data Analysis, Macmillan. [3rd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_46","unstructured":"Zajic, A. (2021, September 23). Introduction to AIC\u2014Akaike Information Criterion. Available online: https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/introduction-to-aic-akaike-information-criterion-9c9ba1c96ced."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dubitzky, W., Wolkenhauer, O., Cho, K.-H., and Yokota, H. (2013). Area under the ROC Curve. Encyclopedia of Systems Biology, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4419-9863-7"},{"key":"ref_48","unstructured":"Google Developers (2021, September 13). Machine Learning Crash Course: Classification: ROC Curve and AUC. Available online: https:\/\/developers.google.com\/machine-learning\/crash-course\/classification\/roc-and-auc."},{"key":"ref_49","unstructured":"RDocumentation (2022, February 22). Predict: Model Prediction. Available online: https:\/\/www.rdocumentation.org\/packages\/car\/versions\/3.0-12\/topics\/Predict."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Walter, M., Vogelgesang, J.R., Rubel, F., and Brugger, K. (2020). Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals. Microorganisms, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/microorganisms8071065"},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-7-11","article-title":"Climate and environmental change drives Ixodes ricinus geographical expansion at the northern range margin","volume":"7","author":"Jore","year":"2014","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"}],"container-title":["Microorganisms"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-2607\/10\/3\/643\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T22:38:10Z","timestamp":1760135890000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-2607\/10\/3\/643"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,17]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3]]}},"alternative-id":["microorganisms10030643"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/microorganisms10030643","relation":{},"ISSN":["2076-2607"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2076-2607","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,17]]}}}