{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,15]],"date-time":"2026-06-15T10:09:27Z","timestamp":1781518167398,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,21]],"date-time":"2019-01-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1548028800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100008331","name":"Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["11111"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["11111"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100008331","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Molecules"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Several economies around the world are using second-generation (2G) ethanol produced from agricultural residues, like sugarcane straw and bagasse, as a sustainable solution to replace petroleum products. Since first-generation (1G) ethanol uses the sugars of sugarcane, an integrated 1G\u20132G production would enable the production of more ethanol from the same amount of sugarcane without leading to increased use of arable land. The ethanol production process is complex, involving different high-energy consumption operations such as evaporation and distillation. The economic competitiveness of this process depends heavily on the amount of thermal and electrical energy produced using sugarcane straw and bagasse as input. Thus, the objective of this study was to use the mean-variance methodology to determine the optimal allocation of residual sugarcane biomass between 2G ethanol and bioelectricity productions, with simultaneous objectives of maximizing the return and minimizing the risk for investors of this sector. In this paper, four scenarios are analyzed. The first one is the base scenario that represents the current state of production costs and investments. scenarios 2, 3, and 4 considered four cuts of 10%, 20%, and 40% in the production cost of ethanol 2G, respectively. The results show the optimum biomass allocations and the growth rates of returns as a function of risk growth. It can be concluded that from scenario 4, the production of 2G ethanol becomes financially advantageous for the investor, presenting greater returns with smaller risks.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/molecules24020369","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,22]],"date-time":"2019-01-22T03:08:22Z","timestamp":1548126502000},"page":"369","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Competition between Second-Generation Ethanol and Bioelectricity using the Residual Biomass of Sugarcane: Effects of Uncertainty on the Production Mix"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"24","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1998-1526","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lucio Guido","family":"Tapia Carpio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Energy Planning Program\u2014PPE\/COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941972, Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"F\u00e1bio","family":"Simone de Souza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Center for Technological Education Celso Suckow da Fonseca\u2014CEFET\/RJ, Rio de Janeiro 2027110, Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2017.01.028","article-title":"Complement or substitute: Ethanol\u2019s uncertain relationship with gasoline under alternative petroleum price and policy scenarios","volume":"191","author":"Debnath","year":"2017","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"RFA\u2014Renewable Fuels Association (2018, June 23). 2017 Ethanol Industry Outlook. Available online: http:\/\/www.ethanolrfa.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Ethanol-Industry-Outlook-2017.pdf."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3163","DOI":"10.1080\/00036846.2014.925076","article-title":"Bioenergy and global land-use change","volume":"46","author":"Rajcaniova","year":"2014","journal-title":"Appl. Econ."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"77","article-title":"Portfolio Selection","volume":"7","author":"Markowitz","year":"1952","journal-title":"J. Finan."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5874","DOI":"10.3390\/en7095874","article-title":"Challenges in Bioenergy Production from Sugarcane Mills in Developing Countries: A Case Study","volume":"7","author":"Colombo","year":"2014","journal-title":"Energies"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1206","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cherd.2009.06.020","article-title":"Production of bioethanol and other bio-based materials from sugarcane bagasse: Integration to conventional bioethanol production process","volume":"87","author":"Dias","year":"2009","journal-title":"Chem. Eng. Res. Des."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biortech.2011.09.120","article-title":"Integrated versus stand-alone second-generation ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse and trash","volume":"103","author":"Dias","year":"2012","journal-title":"Bioresour. Technol."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"72","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2013.03.081","article-title":"Biorefinaries, for the production of first and second-generation ethanol and electricity from sugarcane","volume":"109","author":"Dias","year":"2013","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1016\/j.renene.2016.12.037","article-title":"Influence of pretreatment severity on structural changes, lignin content and enzymatic hydrolysis of sugarcane bagasse samples","volume":"104","author":"Brienzo","year":"2017","journal-title":"Renew. Energy"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"164","DOI":"10.1002\/bbb.1634","article-title":"Integrated enzyme production lowers the cost of cellulosic ethanol","volume":"10","author":"Johnson","year":"2016","journal-title":"Biofuels Bioprod. Biorefin."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"593","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2015.01.090","article-title":"Outlook for ethanol production costs in Brazil up to 2030, for different biomass crops and industrial technologies","volume":"147","author":"Jonker","year":"2015","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1065","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biombioe.2010.01.042","article-title":"A techno-economic evaluation of the effects of centralized cellulosic ethanol and co-products refinery options with sugarcane mill clustering","volume":"34","author":"Seabra","year":"2010","journal-title":"Biomass Bioenergy"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1470","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cherd.2013.11.016","article-title":"Product diversification to enhance economic viability of second generation ethanol production in Brazil: The case of the sugar and ethanol joint production","volume":"92","author":"Albarelli","year":"2014","journal-title":"Chem. Eng. Res. Des."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"771","DOI":"10.1016\/j.renene.2017.05.015","article-title":"Optimal allocation of sugarcane bagasse for producing bioelectricity and second-generation ethanol in Brazil: Scenarios of cost reductions","volume":"111","author":"Carpio","year":"2017","journal-title":"Renew. Energy"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"356","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2012.11.080","article-title":"Energy from sugarcane bagasse in Brazil: An assessment of the productivity and cost of different technological routes","volume":"21","author":"Dantas","year":"2013","journal-title":"Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kim, T.H., Im, D., Oh, K.K., and Kim, T.H. (2018). Effects of Organosolv Pretreatment Using Temperature-Controlle Bench-Scale Ball Milling on Enzymatic Saccharification of Miscanthus x giganteus. Energies, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/en11102657"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0960-8524(01)00212-7","article-title":"Hydrolysis of lignocellulosic materials for ethanol production: A review","volume":"83","author":"Sun","year":"2002","journal-title":"Bioresour. Technol."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.renene.2011.06.045","article-title":"Bioethanol production from agricultural wastes: An overview","volume":"37","author":"Sarkar","year":"2012","journal-title":"Renew. Energy"},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"(2018, July 12). UNICA\u2014Uni\u00e3o da Ind\u00fastria de Cana-de-A\u00e7\u00facar. Available online: http:\/\/www.unica.com.br."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"860","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2011.08.045","article-title":"Opportunity costs for bioelectricity sales in Brazilian sucro-energetic industries","volume":"92","author":"Grisi","year":"2012","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"Lora, E.E.S., and Nascimento, M.A.R. (2004). Gera\u00e7\u00e3o Termel\u00e9trica: Planejamento, Projeto e Opera\u00e7\u00e3o\u20142 Volumes, Inter-Ci\u00eancia."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"ANEEL\u2014Ag\u00eancia Nacional de Energia El\u00e9trica (2018, June 15). Resolu\u00e7\u00e3o Homologat\u00f3ria N\u00famero 2.344, de 14 de Novembro de 2017, Available online: http:\/\/www2.aneel.gov.br\/aplicacoes\/editais_geracao\/documentos\/reh20172344ti.pdf."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Samanez, C.P. (2007). Gest\u00e3o de Investimento e Gera\u00e7\u00e3o de Valor, Pearson Prentice Hall."},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"(2018, December 11). CCEE\u2014C\u00e2mara de Comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o de Energia El\u00e9trica. Available online: http:\/\/www.ccee.org.br."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2964","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2005.05.015","article-title":"Independent operation by subsystems: Strategic behavior for the Brazilian electricity sector","volume":"34","author":"Carpio","year":"2006","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"CEPEA\u2014Centro de Estudos Avan\u00e7ados em Economia Aplicada (2018, December 11). Pre\u00e7os do Etanol e A\u00e7\u00facar. Available online: http:\/\/www.cepea.esalq.usp.br."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Brealey, R.A., and Meyers, S.C. (2002). Principles of Corporate Finance, The McGraw-Hill. [7th ed.]."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Steuer, R.E. (1986). Multiple Criteria Optimization: Theory, Computation, and Applications, Wiley."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"451","DOI":"10.1007\/s10883-006-0001-2","article-title":"A Qualitative approach to Markovian equilibrium on optimal growth under uncertainty","volume":"12","author":"Carpio","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Dyn. Control Syst."}],"container-title":["Molecules"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1420-3049\/24\/2\/369\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T12:27:39Z","timestamp":1760185659000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1420-3049\/24\/2\/369"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,21]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]}},"alternative-id":["molecules24020369"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/molecules24020369","relation":{},"ISSN":["1420-3049"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1420-3049","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,21]]}}}