{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T18:23:03Z","timestamp":1785435783710,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,21]],"date-time":"2026-05-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779321600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001700","name":"Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JP24H00663"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP24H00663"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001700","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"award":["JP24H00663"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP24H00663"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/048rj2z13","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100021851","name":"William Demant Fonden","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100021851","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02x3xhs38","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Christian og Ottilia Brorsons Rejselegater","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nutrients"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background\/Objectives: High sodium intake is a leading dietary risk factor for stomach cancer, particularly in East Asia. In Japan, traditional dietary patterns contribute to elevated sodium consumption and a high burden of stomach cancer. This study aims to forecast disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for stomach cancer attributable to high sodium intake in Japan from 2022 to 2050, and to assess the impact of multiple sodium reduction policy scenarios. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal forecasting study using autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) models based on Global Burden of Disease 2021 data (1990\u20132021). The Japanese population was stratified by sex and age groups (15\u201349, 50\u201369, and \u226570). Five future exposure scenarios were modelled: (1) reference (current trends), (2) best-case (50% reduction in sodium exposure by 2050), (3) optimal (30% reduction by 2032), (4) moderate (30% reduction by 2050), and (5) worst-case (highest exposure levels from recent years maintained). These scenarios were aligned with national and international sodium reduction targets, including the revised \u201cHealth Japan 21\u201d (third term; 7 g\/day by 2032) and the World Health Organisation (WHO) 5 g\/day\/30% reduction goals. Results: Under the reference scenario, age-standardised DALY rates are projected to decline by 31.4% (to 15.4 per 100,000) by 2050. The best-case scenario projects a 54.7% decline (to 10.1 per 100,000). Substantial demographic disparities persist: males and those aged \u226570 consistently show higher burdens. Notably, the 50\u201369 age group shows the greatest variation in 2050 projections across scenarios (17.1 to 73.5 per 100,000), indicating high policy sensitivity. Meanwhile, in the \u226570 group, DALY rates remain high regardless of scenario, especially among males (199.4 vs. 57.8 per 100,000 for females), reflecting cumulative lifetime exposure. Conclusions: Under modelled assumptions, sustained achievement of national sodium reduction targets could meaningfully reduce future stomach cancer DALYs in Japan, with the largest absolute gains in older adults but the largest relative gains in younger and middle-aged groups. Because stomach cancer aetiology is multifactorial and the projections rest on modelled associations and a continuity-of-trend assumption, these findings support strengthened, demographically targeted sodium reduction interventions as one complementary component of a broader, multi-risk factor approach to stomach cancer prevention.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/nu18101641","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,21]],"date-time":"2026-05-21T13:53:24Z","timestamp":1779371604000},"page":"1641","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Forecasting Stomach Cancer Burden from High Sodium Intake in Japan, 2022\u20132050: Scenario Analysis of Demographic Disparities"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7482-4158","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Constanza","family":"De Matteu Monteiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daisuke","family":"Yoneoka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Infectious Disease, Japan Institute for Health Security, Tokyo 162-8640, Japan"},{"name":"Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2963-7297","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shuhei","family":"Nomura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Health Policy Lab, International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8572, Japan"},{"name":"Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo 160-8582, Japan"},{"name":"Department of Food, Nutrition and Health, Graduate School of International University of Health and Welfare, Tokyo 107-8402, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2023). 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