{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T16:05:17Z","timestamp":1784822717003,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,1]],"date-time":"2025-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1746057600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Roemmers Foundation","award":["PICT-2014-3281"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PICT-2014-3281"]}]},{"name":"Agencia Nacional de Promoci\u00f3n Cient\u00edfica y Tecnol\u00f3gica","award":["PICT-2014-3281"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PICT-2014-3281"]}]},{"name":"Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas y Tecnol\u00f3gicas (CONICET), Argentina","award":["PICT-2014-3281"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PICT-2014-3281"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Pathogens"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Early warning systems rely on statistical prediction models, with environmental risks and remote sensing data serving as essential sources of information for their development. The present work is focused on the use of remote sensing for the estimation of transmission risk and the prediction of malaria cases in northwest Argentina. This study was conducted in the city of San Ram\u00f3n de la Nueva Or\u00e1n, where cases of the disease have been reported from 1986 to 2005. The relationship between reported malaria cases and climatic\/environmental variables\u2014including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), and land surface temperature (LST)\u2014obtained from Landsat 5 and 7 satellite images was analyzed using multilevel Poisson regression analyses. An increased abundance of reported malaria cases was observed in summer. An ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) temporal series model incorporating environmental variables was developed to forecast malaria cases in the year 2000. The analysis of the relationship between malaria cases and environmental and climatic factors showed that malaria cases were associated with increases in LST and mean temperature and a decrease in the NDVI. Early warning systems that provide information about spatial and temporal predictions of epidemics could help to control and prevent malaria outbreaks. Based on these findings, this study is expected to support the development of future prevention and control measures by health officials.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens14050448","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,2]],"date-time":"2025-05-02T07:44:58Z","timestamp":1746171898000},"page":"448","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Remote Sensing-Derived Environmental Variables to Estimate Transmission Risk and Predict Malaria Cases in Argentina: A Pre-Certification Study (1986\u20132005)"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Ana C.","family":"Cu\u00e9llar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, B\u00fclowsvej, 2750 Frederiksberg, Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5152-2843","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roberto D.","family":"Coello-Peralta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090511, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Davis","family":"Calle-Atariguana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090511, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martha","family":"Palacios-Macias","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090511, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6091-247X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paul L.","family":"Duque","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unidad Ejecutora Lillo (CONICET-Fundaci\u00f3n Miguel Lillo), San Miguel de Tucum\u00e1n 4000, Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liliana M.","family":"Galindo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional de Tucum\u00e1n, San Miguel de Tucum\u00e1n 4000, Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mario O.","family":"Zaidenberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Coordinaci\u00f3n Nacional de Control de Vectores, Ministerio de Salud de la Naci\u00f3n, Salta 4400, Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mar\u00eda J.","family":"Dantur-Juri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unidad Ejecutora Lillo (CONICET-Fundaci\u00f3n Miguel Lillo), San Miguel de Tucum\u00e1n 4000, Argentina"},{"name":"Instituto de Gen\u00e9tica y Microbiolog\u00eda, Fundaci\u00f3n Miguel Lillo, San Miguel de Tucum\u00e1n 4000, Argentina"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"54","article-title":"Ecoepidemiolog\u00eda y epidemiolog\u00eda satelital: Nuevas herramientas en el manejo de problemas en salud p\u00fablica","volume":"22","year":"2005","journal-title":"Rev. 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