{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]],"date-time":"2026-06-16T06:56:18Z","timestamp":1781592978383,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,15]],"date-time":"2026-06-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781481600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003196","name":"Italian Ministry of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["E53C23002170006"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["E53C23002170006"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003196","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Pathogens"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Animal tuberculosis in cattle (TB) has been controlled in many European countries through long-standing eradication programs, yet sporadic breakdowns continue to occur in officially tuberculosis-free (OTF) areas, challenging the sustainability of disease freedom. This study aimed to identify and quantify herd-level and area-level risk factors associated with TB occurrence in Italian OTF regions in order to support risk-based surveillance strategies. A national longitudinal open-cohort study was conducted using data from the Italian Veterinary Information System, including approximately 300,000 herd\u2013year observations from 2022 to 2025. The outcome was the occurrence of at least one TB breakdown per herd\u2013year, analyzed using a discrete-time hazard modeling approach based on a binomial generalized linear mixed model with province-level random effects. The incidence of TB remained very low but increased over time, and significant spatial clustering was observed. Higher TB risk was associated with larger herd size, a previous history of TB, non-OTF herd status, proximity to recent breakdowns, number of animals purchased, transhumance practices, and a shorter time since acquisition of OTF status at provincial level. These findings highlight that, even in disease-free contexts, TB risk is heterogeneous and driven by identifiable factors, supporting the refinement of targeted, risk-based surveillance to maintain OTF status over time.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens15060636","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]],"date-time":"2026-06-16T05:46:28Z","timestamp":1781588788000},"page":"636","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A Study on Risk Factors for Bovine Tuberculosis in the Disease-Free Regions of Italy"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4522-8976","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Giorgio","family":"Galletti","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale Della Lombardia e dell\u2019Emilia Romagna \u201cBruno Ubertini\u201d, 25124 Brescia, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3214-6461","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sara","family":"Salvato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale Della Lombardia e dell\u2019Emilia Romagna \u201cBruno Ubertini\u201d, 25124 Brescia, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8675-728X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefania","family":"Cal\u00f2","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale Della Lombardia e dell\u2019Emilia Romagna \u201cBruno Ubertini\u201d, 25124 Brescia, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria","family":"Ottaiano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale del Mezzogiorno, 80055 Portici, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6252-9848","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Beatrice","family":"Boniotti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale Della Lombardia e dell\u2019Emilia Romagna \u201cBruno Ubertini\u201d, 25124 Brescia, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5878-4595","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marco","family":"Tamba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale Della Lombardia e dell\u2019Emilia Romagna \u201cBruno Ubertini\u201d, 25124 Brescia, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"WOAH (2022). 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