{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,15]],"date-time":"2026-07-15T18:42:56Z","timestamp":1784140976365,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"18","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,20]],"date-time":"2024-09-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1726790400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"University of Miami","award":["GR 106613"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GR 106613"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Plants"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The potential for a non-native plant species to invade a new habitat depends on broadscale factors such as climate, local factors such as nutrient availability, and the biotic community of the habitat into which the plant species is introduced. We developed a spatially explicit model to assess the risk of expansion of a floating invasive aquatic plant species (FAV), the water hyacinth (Pontederia crassipes), an invader in the United States, beyond its present range. Our model used known data on growth rates and competition with a native submersed aquatic macrophyte (SAV). In particular, the model simulated an invasion into a habitat with a mean annual temperature different from its own growth optimum, in which we also simulated seasonal fluctuations in temperature. Twenty different nutrient concentrations and eight different temperature scenarios, with different mean annual amplitudes of seasonal temperature variation around the mean of the invaded habitat, were simulated. In each case, the ability of the water hyacinth to invade and either exclude or coexist with the native vegetation was determined. As the temperature pattern was changed from tropical towards increasingly cooler temperate levels, the competitive advantage shifted from the tropical FAV to the more temperate SAV, with a wide range in which coexistence occurred. High nutrient concentrations allowed the coexistence of FAV, even at cooler annual temperatures. But even at the highest nutrient concentrations in the model, the FAV was unlikely to persist under the current climates of latitudes in the Southeastern United States above that of Northern Alabama. This result may have some implications for where control efforts need to be concentrated.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/plants13182621","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,20]],"date-time":"2024-09-20T02:47:07Z","timestamp":1726800427000},"page":"2621","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Modeling the Effects of Temperature and Limiting Nutrients on the Competition of an Invasive Floating Plant, Pontederia crassipes, with Submersed Vegetation in a Shallow Lake"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-7809-4866","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Linhao","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Donald L.","family":"DeAngelis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, U. S., Geological Survey, Davie, FL 33314, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s10661-015-4934-3","article-title":"Paradigm of plant invasion: Multifaceted review on sustainable management","volume":"187","author":"Rai","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environ. Monit. Assess."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Cox, G.W. (1999). Alien Species in North America and Hawaii, Island Press."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"689","DOI":"10.1890\/1051-0761(2000)010[0689:BICEGC]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Biotic invasions: Causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control","volume":"10","author":"Mack","year":"2000","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-environ-033009-095548","article-title":"Invasive species, environmental change and management, and health","volume":"35","author":"Richardson","year":"2010","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1986.0076","article-title":"The population and community ecology of invading insects","volume":"314","author":"Lawton","year":"1986","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.1086\/343872","article-title":"Why alien invaders succeed: Support for the escape-from-enemy hypothesis","volume":"160","author":"Wolfe","year":"2002","journal-title":"Am. Nat."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0030-1299.2004.12682.x","article-title":"Are invasive plant species better competitors than native plant species?\u2013evidence from pair-wise experiments","volume":"105","author":"Vila","year":"2004","journal-title":"Oikos"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2543","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-014-0684-3","article-title":"Competition, legacy, and priority and the success of three invasive species","volume":"16","author":"Perkins","year":"2014","journal-title":"Biol. Invasions"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Reynolds, S.A., and Aldridge, D.C. (2021). Embracing the allelopathic potential of invasive aquatic plants to manipulate freshwater ecosystems. Front. Environ. Sci., 8.","DOI":"10.3389\/fenvs.2020.551803"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2020","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2004.00859.x","article-title":"Patterns and uncertainties of species\u2019 range shifts under climate change","volume":"10","author":"Thuiller","year":"2004","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kriticos, D.J., and Brunel, S. (2016). Assessing and managing the current and future pest risk from water hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an invasive aquatic plant threatening the environment and water security. PLoS ONE, 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0120054"},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"129","article-title":"Control of water hyacinth: A short review","volume":"9","year":"2019","journal-title":"Commun. Plant Sci."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2107","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-016-1155-9","article-title":"Quantifying the population response of invasive water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes, to biological control and winter weather in Louisiana, USA","volume":"18","author":"Nesslage","year":"2016","journal-title":"Biol. Invasions"},{"key":"#cr-split#-ref_14.1","unstructured":"Julien, M.H., Hill, M.P., Center, T.D., and Ding, J. (2001). Biological control of water hyacinth with arthropods: A review to 2000. Aciar Proceedings"},{"key":"#cr-split#-ref_14.2","unstructured":"Proceedings of the Second Meeting of the Global Working Group for the Biological and Integrated Control of Water Hyacinth, Beijing, China, 9-12 October 2000, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"282","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2427.2009.02294.x","article-title":"Ecological and socio-economic impacts of invasive water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes): A review","volume":"55","author":"Villamagna","year":"2010","journal-title":"Freshw. Biol."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"823","DOI":"10.1007\/s00267-007-9003-4","article-title":"Water hyacinth in China: A sustainability science-based management framework","volume":"40","author":"Lu","year":"2007","journal-title":"Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"834","DOI":"10.4161\/psb.6.6.15166","article-title":"Eichhornia crassipes (Mart) solms: From water parasite to potential medicinal remedy","volume":"6","author":"Shalaby","year":"2011","journal-title":"Plant Signal Behav."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.2298\/ABS230222014M","article-title":"Modeling water hyacinth growth dynamics","volume":"75","year":"2023","journal-title":"Arch. Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_19","first-page":"37","article-title":"Biological control of water hyacinth","volume":"3","author":"Gupta","year":"2020","journal-title":"ECR"},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Uka, U.N., Chukwuka, K.S., and Daddy, F. (2024, September 15). Effect of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassippes) infestation on zooplankton populations in Awba Reservoir, Ibadan, south-west Nigeria. Available online: http:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/1834\/37727."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1127\/0003-9136\/2003\/0158-0389","article-title":"The impact of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) in a eutrophic subtropical impoundment (Lake Chivero, Zimbabwe). II. Species diversity","volume":"158","author":"Brendonck","year":"2003","journal-title":"Arch. Hydrobiol."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1319","DOI":"10.1007\/s10531-014-0667-9","article-title":"Water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes (Pontederiaceae), reduces benthic macroinvertebrate diversity in a protected subtropical lake in South Africa. Biodiversity and conservation","volume":"23","author":"Coetzee","year":"2014","journal-title":"Biodivers. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1017\/inp.2017.30","article-title":"Herbivory by biological control agents improves herbicidal control of waterhyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes)","volume":"10","author":"Tipping","year":"2017","journal-title":"Invasive Plant Sci. Manag."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocontrol.2014.01.008","article-title":"Current levels of suppression of waterhyacinth in Florida USA by classical biological control agents","volume":"71","author":"Tipping","year":"2014","journal-title":"Biol. Control"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2018.07.046","article-title":"Plant invasion risk: A quest for invasive species distribution modelling in managing protected areas","volume":"95","author":"Bazzichetto","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kariyawasam, C.S., Kumar, L., and Ratnayake, S.S. (2019). Invasive plant species establishment and range dynamics in Sri Lanka under climate change. Entropy, 21.","DOI":"10.3390\/e21060571"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jnc.2016.08.004","article-title":"Application of species distribution models for protected areas threatened by invasive plants","volume":"34","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Nat. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"72","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-6632.2011.06313.x","article-title":"Modeling population dynamics, landscape structure, and management decisions for controlling the spread of invasive plants","volume":"1249","author":"Caplat","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1079\/PAVSNNR201914020","article-title":"Species distribution models (SDM): Applications, benefits and challenges in invasive species management","volume":"14","author":"Srivastava","year":"2019","journal-title":"CABI Rev."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Hutchinson, G.E. (1978). An Introduction to Population Ecology, Yale Univ Press."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.1017\/S0094837300026932","article-title":"Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary","volume":"26","author":"Jackson","year":"2000","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x","article-title":"A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists","volume":"17","author":"Elith","year":"2011","journal-title":"Divers Distrib."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.04680","article-title":"NicheMapR\u2013an R package for biophysical modelling: The ectotherm and dynamic energy budget models","volume":"43","author":"Kearney","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1017\/9781139019606.006","article-title":"Predicting distributions of invasive species","volume":"10","author":"Elith","year":"2017","journal-title":"Invasive Species Risk Assess. Manag."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159","article-title":"Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time","volume":"40","author":"Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"993","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x","article-title":"Predicting species distribution: Offering more than simple habitat models","volume":"8","author":"Guisan","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2255","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-012-0227-8","article-title":"Ongoing invasions of the African clawed frog, Xenopus laevis: A global review","volume":"14","author":"Measey","year":"2012","journal-title":"Biol. Invasions"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yuan, Y., Tang, X., Liu, M., Liu, X., and Tao, J. (2021). Species Distribution Models of the Spartina alterniflora Loisel in Its Origin and Invasive Country Reveal an Ecological Niche Shift. Front. Plant Sci., 12.","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2021.738769"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2006.07.005","article-title":"Species distribution models and ecological theory: A critical assessment and some possible new approaches","volume":"200","author":"Austin","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3808","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13691","article-title":"Soil parent material\u2014A major driver of plant nutrient limitations in terrestrial ecosystems","volume":"23","author":"Augusto","year":"2017","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.4081\/jlimnol.2009.106","article-title":"A numerical index for evaluating phytoplankton response to changes in nutrient levels in deep mediterranean reservoirs","volume":"68","author":"Marchetto","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Limnol."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2421","DOI":"10.4136\/ambi-agua.2421","article-title":"Modeling of the potential distribution of Eichhornia crassipes on a global scale: Risks and threats to water ecosystems","volume":"15","author":"Cordeiro","year":"2020","journal-title":"Rev. Ambient. \u00c1gua"},{"key":"ref_43","first-page":"101273","article-title":"2024. Modeling water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) distribution in Lake Tana, Ethiopia, using machine learning","volume":"36","author":"Belayhun","year":"2024","journal-title":"RSASE"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1007\/s13157-021-01405-w","article-title":"Modelling occurrence of invasive water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) in Wetlands","volume":"41","author":"Zarkami","year":"2021","journal-title":"Wetlands"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2338.2012.02545.x","article-title":"A decision-support scheme for mapping endangered areas in pest risk analysis","volume":"42","author":"Baker","year":"2012","journal-title":"EPPO Bull."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Morrison, W.E., and Hay, M.E. (2011). Herbivore preference for native vs. exotic plants: Generalist herbivores from multiple continents prefer exotic plants that are evolutionarily na\u00efve. PLoS ONE, 6.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0017227"},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1210","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2011.00791.x","article-title":"A mechanistic model for understanding invasions: Using the environment as a predictor of population success","volume":"17","author":"Strasser","year":"2011","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"ref_48","first-page":"388","article-title":"Data-based mechanistic modelling and the simplification of environmental systems","volume":"371","author":"Young","year":"2004","journal-title":"Environ. Model. Find. Simplicity Complex."},{"key":"ref_49","unstructured":"Van Schalkwyk, H. (2016). The Development of a Spatio-Temporal Model for Water Hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes (Martius) Solms-Laubach (Pontederiaceae), Biological Control Strategies. [Doctoral Dissertation, Stellenbosch University]. Available online: https:\/\/core.ac.uk\/reader\/188225750."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110566","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2023.110566","article-title":"Less is more: Less herbicide does more when biological control is present in Pontederia crassipes","volume":"487","author":"Xu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e02901","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.2901","article-title":"Spatial covariation of competing species in a fluctuating environment","volume":"101","author":"Lee","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1318","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12939","article-title":"Climatic predictors of species distributions neglect biophysiologically meaningful variables","volume":"25","author":"Gardner","year":"2019","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4040","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0737918100","article-title":"Floating plant dominance as a stable state","volume":"100","author":"Scheffer","year":"2003","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1797","DOI":"10.1890\/04-0550","article-title":"Implications of spatial heterogeneity for catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems","volume":"86","author":"Scheffer","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"298","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.07.006","article-title":"Evidence of alternative states in freshwater lakes: A spatially-explicit model of submerged and floating plants","volume":"337","author":"McCann","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1182","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12604","article-title":"Elevated seasonal temperatures eliminate thermal barriers of reproduction of a dominant invasive species: A community state change for northern communities?","volume":"23","author":"Dijkstra","year":"2017","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aquabot.2004.11.002","article-title":"Determinants and patterns of population growth in water hyacinth","volume":"81","author":"Wilson","year":"2005","journal-title":"Aquat. Bot."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1781","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.1781","article-title":"Response diversity of free-floating plants to nutrient stoichiometry and temperature: Growth and resting body formation","volume":"4","author":"McCann","year":"2016","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"ref_59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"394","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.001","article-title":"Requirements, design and implementation of a general model of biological invasion","volume":"272","author":"Savage","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2043","DOI":"10.2307\/2265699","article-title":"Modeling invasive plant spread: The role of plant-environment interactions and model structure","volume":"77","author":"Higgins","year":"1996","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref_61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"975","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2004.00657.x","article-title":"A meta-analysis of biotic resistance to exotic plant invasions","volume":"7","author":"Levine","year":"2004","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.31.1.343","article-title":"Mechanisms of maintenance of species diversity","volume":"31","author":"Chesson","year":"2000","journal-title":"Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst."},{"key":"ref_63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1147","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-017-0519-6","article-title":"Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree","volume":"32","author":"Zhang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."}],"container-title":["Plants"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2223-7747\/13\/18\/2621\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T16:00:17Z","timestamp":1760112017000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2223-7747\/13\/18\/2621"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,20]]},"references-count":64,"journal-issue":{"issue":"18","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9]]}},"alternative-id":["plants13182621"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/plants13182621","relation":{},"ISSN":["2223-7747"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2223-7747","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,20]]}}}