{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T10:01:04Z","timestamp":1790071264776,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"19","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790035200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Universidad Ecotec","award":["09.12.2025 C.S.U. ECOTEC"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["09.12.2025 C.S.U. ECOTEC"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/04pe1sa24","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"award":["09.12.2025 C.S.U. ECOTEC"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["09.12.2025 C.S.U. ECOTEC"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/04pe1sa24","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Plants"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing, yet their implications for perennial tree crops such as cocoa remain understudied. Existing cocoa-climate evidence is based on mean climate variables, discrete shocks, and concentrated in West and Central Africa. This study addresses these gaps with plot-level cocoa evidence for Ecuador, the world\u2019s second-largest exporter, linking the 2016 ESPAC survey to parish-level ET-SCI indices. We estimated the associations of three climate extreme indices: consecutive dry days (CDD), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), and warm days (TX90p), on observed yield. Each index is summarized over 1-, 5-, and 10-year look-back windows to separate recent from cumulative exposure, within cross-sectional Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) models with province fixed effects, survey weights, parish-clustered standard errors, and farm-level controls including management intensity. CDD showed no significant association, and TX90p estimates were imprecise, whereas R20mm was negatively associated with yield across all windows, with stronger evidence for longer windows. Each additional very heavy precipitation day (in the window average) was associated with 0.5\u20130.8% lower yield. Adjustment for management intensity attenuated this association in the intermediate window, although the cross-sectional design precludes a causal buffering interpretation. Recurrent very heavy precipitation emerges as a climatic risk for Ecuadorian cocoa.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/plants15192891","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T08:17:54Z","timestamp":1790065074000},"page":"2891","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Weather Extreme Events, Farm Management, and Cocoa Yield in Ecuador"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0387-9260","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elena","family":"Piedra-Bonilla","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ciencias Econ\u00f3micas y Empresariales, Universidad Ecotec, Km. 13.5 V\u00eda Samborond\u00f3n, Samborond\u00f3n 092302, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"methodology","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"software","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"validation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"formal-analysis","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"resources","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-original-draft","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"visualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"project-administration","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"funding-acquisition","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6436-6314","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gabriel de Sampaio","family":"Morais","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecu\u00e1ria, Embrapa Mandioca e Fruticultura, Rua da Embrapa, s\/n, Cruz das Almas 44380-000, BA, Brazil"},{"name":"Programa de P\u00f3s-Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Economia, Universidade Federal da Integra\u00e7\u00e3o Latino-Americana, Foz do Igua\u00e7u 85870-650, PR, Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"formal-analysis","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-original-draft","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Joel","family":"G\u00f3mez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mapfre, Torre Atlas, Calle 13A NO y Justino Cornejo, Guayaquil 090512, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Heidy","family":"Toala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Secretar\u00eda Nacional de Gesti\u00f3n de Riesgos, Coordinaci\u00f3n Zonal 8\/5, Km. 0.5 Av. Samborond\u00f3n, Samborond\u00f3n 092301, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4222-4953","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"La\u00eds","family":"Rosa-Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Engenharia Agr\u00edcola, Universidade Federal de Vi\u00e7osa, Campus Universit\u00e1rio, Vi\u00e7osa 36570-900, MG, Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"software","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"validation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"visualization","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0981-7231","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nallely","family":"Molina-Velasco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma Metropolitana, Unidad Cuajimalpa, Av. Vasco de Quiroga 4871, Ciudad de M\u00e9xico C.P. 05348, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-original-draft","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"IPCC (2023). IPCC Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"054010","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab154b","article-title":"The Effects of Climate Extremes on Global Agricultural Yields","volume":"14","author":"Vogel","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ. Res. 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