{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T19:21:03Z","timestamp":1792092063977,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,10]],"date-time":"2026-07-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783641600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company Limited","award":["5216AF250009"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5216AF250009"]}]},{"award":["5216AF250009"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5216AF250009"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00e17m144","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Polymers"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The long-term aging of HTV silicone rubber composite insulators under complex environments severely threatens power transmission line reliability. Traditional single\/dual-parameter aging evaluation and lifetime prediction methods have low accuracy and poor generalization because they generally ignore multi-factor synergistic effects, pollution accumulation and electrical erosion. In this work, we systematically studied the aging characteristics of HTV silicone rubber under UV radiation, humidity, salt\/ash contamination and their combined effects via accelerated aging tests and field sample verification, quantitatively analyzed the evolution of key mechanical, electrical and hydrophobic properties, and revealed the multi-factor synergistic aging mechanism from a micro\u2013macro perspective with SEM, XPS and FTIR. The acceleration factor of the comprehensive accelerated-aging test was calculated as 43.8 through field-performance matching between 2000 h laboratory aging and 10-year field aging. We further established a \u201cphysical-pollution-electrical\u201d three-dimensional evaluation system and constructed a multi-parameter synergistic lifetime prediction model through Pearson correlation analysis, VIF diagnosis and multiple stepwise regression. Compared with traditional dual-parameter models, the proposed model integrates physically interpretable degradation, contamination and electrical-stress indicators, thereby improving both prediction accuracy and engineering traceability. The model has 33% higher accuracy than traditional dual-parameter models, with average prediction errors of 0.55 years (same-manufacturer) and 1.0 years (cross-manufacturer). Five-fold cross-validation gives an MAE of 0.62 \u00b1 0.08 years, and independent testing shows that most validation samples fall within the 95% prediction intervals, confirming favorable applicability within the present validation scope. These results provide theoretical and technical support for condition-based maintenance of composite insulators in power grids.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/polym18141701","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,10]],"date-time":"2026-07-10T13:16:28Z","timestamp":1783689388000},"page":"1701","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Multi-Factor Aging Mechanism and Multi-Parameter Synergistic Lifetime Prediction of HTV Silicone Rubber Composite Insulators"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-8607-2933","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Haocheng","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Reduction for Power Grid, Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 410100, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6264-4982","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bowen","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Reduction for Power Grid, Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 410100, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhiyao","family":"Fu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Reduction for Power Grid, Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 410100, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kai","family":"Ning","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Reduction for Power Grid, Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 410100, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhuan","family":"Jin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Reduction for Power Grid, Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 410100, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1495-9696","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Haining","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Reduction for Power Grid, Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 410100, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhenglong","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Reduction for Power Grid, Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 410100, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zeng, Z., Guo, P., Zhang, R., Zhao, Z., Bao, J., Wang, Q., and Xu, Z. 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