{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T05:18:04Z","timestamp":1788499084256,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"17","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,30]],"date-time":"2026-08-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788048000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Transportation Technology Project of Jiangsu Province","award":["2024Z03"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024Z03"]}]},{"name":"Transportation Technology Project of Jiangsu Province","award":["2025Z02"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025Z02"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Polymers"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Bio-asphalt\u2013rubber (BAR) binders combine plant-based bio-oil, end-of-life tire crumb rubber, and petroleum asphalt binder, but their climate advantage remains uncertain because bio-oil supply chains, asphalt-binder inventories, and tire-rubber allocation choices can substantially change cradle-to-gate results. This study develops a probabilistic cradle-to-gate life-cycle assessment for one metric ton of binder at plant gate. Eight alternatives were evaluated: a neat petroleum binder, a rubberized binder, a bio-oil modified binder, and five BAR binders with crumb rubber contents of 20\u201330% and bio-oil contents of 5\u201315%, expressed relative to neat asphalt mass. The model includes A1 material production, A2 inbound transport, and A3 binder blending energy. Plant-based bio-oil was represented using a literature-derived inventory, while crumb rubber was evaluated under cut-off, avoided-burden, and clinker-fuel system-expansion scenarios. A 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation propagated inventory, transport, energy, and allocation uncertainty. Under cut-off allocation, mean GWP decreased from 496 kg CO2e\/t for the neat binder to 446\u2013471 kg CO2e\/t for BAR binders, with BAR_30CR_15BIO showing the lowest mean impact and a 98.8% probability of outperforming the control. Avoided-burden allocation strengthened the apparent benefit, whereas system expansion against clinker fuel reversed the conclusion for rubber-containing alternatives. Results show that BAR can reduce binder-level GWP, but the conclusion is not inherent to the material; it depends strongly on tire-rubber counterfactuals and asphalt-binder inventory assumptions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/polym18172107","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T02:08:58Z","timestamp":1788142138000},"page":"2107","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Climate-Impact Uncertainty in Bio-Asphalt\u2013Rubber Binders: Probabilistic Cradle-to-Gate Screening of Bio-Oil Inventory and Crumb Rubber Allocation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Yemao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211167, China"},{"name":"Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Intelligent Construction and Smart Operation & Maintenance of Power Infrastructure, Nanjing 211167, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xijuan","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211167, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Stripple, H. (2001). Life Cycle Assessment of Road: A Pilot Study for Inventory Analysis, Swedish National Road Administration."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1007\/s10098-017-1467-1","article-title":"Comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Bio-Modified Binder and Conventional Asphalt Binder","volume":"20","author":"Samieadel","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clean Technol. Environ. Policy"},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Butt, A.A. (2014). Life Cycle Assessment of Asphalt Roads: Decision Support at the Project Level, Architecture and the Built Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Asphalt Institute (2019). Life Cycle Assessment of Asphalt Binder, Asphalt Institute."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Shacat, J., Willis, R., and Ciavola, B. (2024). The Carbon Footprint of Asphalt Pavements: A Reference Document for Decarbonization, National Asphalt Pavement Association."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106160","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2022.106160","article-title":"A Comparative Life Cycle Assessment Study with Uncertainty Analysis of Cement Treated Base (CTB) Pavement Layers Containing Recycled Asphalt Pavement (RAP) Materials","volume":"180","author":"Bressi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1016\/j.istruc.2020.02.026","article-title":"Life Cycle Assessment of Asphalt Variants in Infrastructures: The Case of Lignin in Australian Road Pavements","volume":"25","author":"Tokede","year":"2020","journal-title":"Structures"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"132813","DOI":"10.1016\/j.conbuildmat.2023.132813","article-title":"Comparing Bio-Binders, Rubberised Asphalts, and Traditional Pavement Technologies","volume":"400","author":"Perri","year":"2023","journal-title":"Constr. Build. Mater."},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"151","article-title":"A Comprehensive Review of Bio-Oil, Bio-Binder and Bio-Asphalt Materials: Their Source, Composition, Preparation and Performance","volume":"9","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.)"},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"137","article-title":"Preparation Process of Bio-Oil and Bio-Asphalt, Their Performance, and the Application of Bio-Asphalt: A Comprehensive Review","volume":"7","author":"Wang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.)"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131063","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2022.131063","article-title":"Using Lignin from Local Biorefineries for Asphalts: LCA Case Study for the Netherlands","volume":"343","author":"Moretti","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"150316","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.150316","article-title":"Kraft Lignin as a Bio-Based Ingredient for Dutch Asphalts: An Attributional LCA","volume":"806","author":"Moretti","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1355","DOI":"10.1139\/cjce-2024-0262","article-title":"Cradle-to-Pavement Carbon Footprint and Biogenic Carbon Accounting of Bio-Extended Bituminous Binders for Asphalt Pavements","volume":"52","author":"Zhu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Can. J. Civ. Eng."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kolendo, G., Voronova, V., Bumanis, G., Korjakins, A., and Bajare, D. (2024). Life Cycle Assessment of End-of-Life Tire Disposal Methods and Potential Integration of Recycled Crumb Rubber in Cement Composites. Appl. Sci., 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/app142411667"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bianco, I., Panepinto, D., and Zanetti, M. (2021). End-of-Life Tyres: Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Treatment Scenarios. Appl. Sci., 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/app11083599"},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"e00591","article-title":"Stability and Permeability Characteristics of Porous Asphalt Pavement: An Experimental Case Study","volume":"15","author":"Akhtar","year":"2021","journal-title":"Case Stud. Constr. Mater."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122864","DOI":"10.1016\/j.conbuildmat.2021.122864","article-title":"Effect of Crumb Rubber Size on the Performance of Rubberized Asphalt with Bio-Oil Pretreatment","volume":"285","author":"Lei","year":"2021","journal-title":"Constr. Build. Mater."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"133656","DOI":"10.1016\/j.conbuildmat.2023.133656","article-title":"Evaluation of Asphalt Modified with Bio-Oil and High Rubber Content: Low Temperature and Short Mixing Time Production Condition","volume":"408","author":"Xue","year":"2023","journal-title":"Constr. Build. Mater."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"118577","DOI":"10.1016\/j.conbuildmat.2020.118577","article-title":"Crumb Rubber Asphalt Mixtures: A Literature Review","volume":"247","author":"Neves","year":"2020","journal-title":"Constr. Build. Mater."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Labbafi, F., Alavi, M.Z., and Saadat, F. (2025). Comparative Analysis of Rubberized Asphalt and Traditional Asphalt: Performance, Economic, and Environmental Impacts in Life Cycle. Infrastructures, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/infrastructures10020034"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127468","DOI":"10.1016\/j.conbuildmat.2022.127468","article-title":"Economic and Environmental Analysis of Crumb Rubber Modified Asphalt","volume":"335","author":"Riekstins","year":"2022","journal-title":"Constr. Build. Mater."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1007\/s10098-010-0289-1","article-title":"Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Beneficial Applications for Scrap Tires","volume":"13","author":"Fiksel","year":"2011","journal-title":"Clean Technol. Environ. Policy"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105950","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2021.105950","article-title":"Life Cycle Assessment of Rubberized Semi-Dense Asphalt Pavements; A Hybrid Comparative Approach","volume":"176","author":"Piao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guo, F., Shen, Z., Jiang, L., Long, Q., and Yu, Y. (2024). Study on the Performance of Asphalt Modified with Bio-Oil, SBS and the Crumb Rubber Particle Size Ratio. Polymers, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/polym16131929"},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"e03828","article-title":"Performance Evaluation of Bio-Oil and High Rubber Content Modified Asphalt: More Effective Waste Utilization","volume":"21","author":"Ju","year":"2024","journal-title":"Case Stud. Constr. Mater."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jreng.2024.04.002","article-title":"Use of Bio-Based Products towards More Sustainable Road Paving Binders: A State-of-the-Art Review","volume":"4","author":"Musco","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Road Eng."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107922","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2024.107922","article-title":"Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Three Types of Crumb Rubber Modified Asphalt under Different System Boundaries","volume":"212","author":"Cao","year":"2025","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108169","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2025.108169","article-title":"Lifecycle Assessment of End-of-Life Tire Recycling through Pathways of Transitioning the Recycling Industry to Renewable Energy Sources","volume":"216","author":"Sudan","year":"2025","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107802","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2024.107802","article-title":"Development of a Streamlined Framework for Probabilistic and Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Road Pavements","volume":"209","author":"Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Farias, A.V., Santos, J., and Hartmann, A. (2024). Dissecting Uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessment Studies for Sustainable Pavement Management, GUARANT International."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"(2006). Environmental Management\u2014Life Cycle Assessment\u2014Requirements and Guidelines (Standard No. ISO 14044)."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"(2006). Environmental Management\u2014Life Cycle Assessment\u2014Principles and Framework (Standard No. ISO 14040)."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Harvey, J., Ozer, H., Al-Qadi, I., Saboori, A., and Kendall, A. (2016). Pavement Life Cycle Assessment Framework, Applied Pavement Technology, Inc."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"248","DOI":"10.1065\/lca2004.09.177","article-title":"Representing Statistical Distributions for Uncertain Parameters in LCA. Relationships between Mathematical Forms, Their Representation in EcoSpold, and Their Representation in CMLCA (7 Pp)","volume":"10","author":"Heijungs","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Life Cycle Assess."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"374","DOI":"10.1111\/jiec.13194","article-title":"Implementation of Uncertainty Analysis and Moment-independent Global Sensitivity Analysis for Full-scale Life Cycle Assessment Models","volume":"26","author":"Cucurachi","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Ind. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Smit, R., and Kennedy, D.W. (2022). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Performance of Electric and Fossil-Fueled Passenger Vehicles with Uncertainty Estimates Using a Probabilistic Life-Cycle Assessment. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su14063444"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2013.10.002","article-title":"Comparative Pavement Life Cycle Assessment with Parameter Uncertainty","volume":"25","author":"Noshadravan","year":"2013","journal-title":"Transp. Res. D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.3141\/2523-06","article-title":"Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Pavements","volume":"2523","author":"Swei","year":"2015","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Rec."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6397","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.est.5b04969","article-title":"A Methodology for Robust Comparative Life Cycle Assessments Incorporating Uncertainty","volume":"50","author":"Gregory","year":"2016","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Mukherjee, A. (2016). Life Cycle Assessment of Asphalt Mixtures in Support of an Environmental Product Declaration, National Asphalt Pavement Association."}],"container-title":["Polymers"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4360\/18\/17\/2107\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T04:39:47Z","timestamp":1788496787000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4360\/18\/17\/2107"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,30]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"17","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["polym18172107"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/polym18172107","relation":{},"ISSN":["2073-4360"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2073-4360","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,30]]}}}