{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,25]],"date-time":"2026-10-25T19:37:17Z","timestamp":1792957037516,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,13]],"date-time":"2025-11-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1762992000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Loess Science Foundation","award":["SKLLQG2419"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SKLLQG2419"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100007129","name":"Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ZR2023MD075"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ZR2023MD075"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100007129","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"LAC\/CMA","award":["2023B02"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023B02"]}]},{"name":"Shandong Province Higher Educational Humanities and Social Science Program","award":["J18RA196"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["J18RA196"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"the National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["42575053"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42575053"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Toxics"],"abstract":"<jats:p>China\u2019s rapid economic growth since its reform and opening-up has come at the cost of worsening atmospheric pollution. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of PM2.5 concentrations in Shandong province, a key industrial region, during 2014\u20132023, using comprehensive air quality monitoring, meteorological observations, and socioeconomic datasets. Through spatial analysis and geodetector methods, we identify that (1) The annual PM2.5 concentration decreases significantly by 50.9%; spatially, heterogeneity is observed with the western urban agglomeration experiencing more severe pollution, while the eastern coastal urban agglomeration exhibits better air quality. (2) Gravity model analysis shows that the centroids of PM2.5 pollution undergo distinct migration phases. (3) PM2.5 levels show a distinct seasonal pattern, peaking in winter at a level 143.7% higher than the summer average. (4) The meteorological driving factors are primarily air temperature (r = 0.511) and wind speed (r = \u22120.487), while the socioeconomic factors are tertiary industry production (r = \u22120.971), particulate matter emissions (r = 0.956), and sulfur dioxide emissions (r = 0.938). Concurrently, the combined effect of tertiary industry production and PM emissions account for 99.5% of PM2.5 variability. Notably, we validate an Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship (R2 = 0.805) between economic development and air quality improvement, demonstrating that clean production policy integration can reconcile environmental and economic objectives. These findings provide empirical evidence supporting circular economy strategies for air pollution mitigation in industrializing regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/toxics13110978","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,14]],"date-time":"2025-11-14T17:33:21Z","timestamp":1763141601000},"page":"978","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":35,"title":["Spatiotemporal Trends and Drivers of PM2.5 Concentrations in Shandong Province from 2014 to 2023 Under Socioeconomic Transition"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Shuaisen","family":"Qiao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0097-0168","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Qingchun","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China"},{"name":"Institute of Huanghe Studies, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China"},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi\u2019an 710061, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhenfang","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China"},{"name":"Institute of Huanghe Studies, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Genyue","family":"Feng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7307-2249","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhaosheng","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Ecosystem Science Data Center, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8438-3552","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xinzhou","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi\u2019an 710061, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"645","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-021-00792-3","article-title":"Drivers of PM2.5 air pollution deaths in China 2002\u20132017","volume":"14","author":"Geng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-021-00726-z","article-title":"Control of particulate nitrate air pollution in China","volume":"14","author":"Zhai","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"404","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-025-09158-w","article-title":"Control of toxicity of fine particulate matter emissions in China","volume":"643","author":"Zheng","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"702","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb7431","article-title":"Unexpected air pollution with marked emission reductions during the COVID-19 outbreak in China","volume":"369","author":"Le","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"218","DOI":"10.1038\/nature13774","article-title":"High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China","volume":"514","author":"Huang","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1007\/s40572-022-00344-w","article-title":"Health Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 in Asia-Pacific: A Systematic Review of Cohort Studies","volume":"9","author":"Yang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Curr. Environ. Health Rep."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1590","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehz135","article-title":"Cardiovascular disease burden from ambient air pollution in Europe reassessed using novel hazard ratio functions","volume":"40","author":"Lelieveld","year":"2019","journal-title":"Eur. Heart J."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112758","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2022.112758","article-title":"Ambient air pollution and COVID-19 incidence during four 2020\u20132021 case surges","volume":"208","author":"Sidell","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Res."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1038\/s41421-024-00657-0","article-title":"Inter- and trans-generational impacts of real-world PM2.5 exposure on male-specific primary hypogonadism","volume":"10","author":"Wei","year":"2024","journal-title":"Cell Discov."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122876","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2020.122876","article-title":"PM2.5 pollution-related health effects and willingness to pay for improved air quality: Evidence from China\u2019s prefecture-level cities","volume":"273","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117066","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosenv.2019.117066","article-title":"A comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal variation of urban air pollution in China during 2014\u20132018","volume":"220","author":"Fan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Atmos. Environ."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24463","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1907956116","article-title":"Drivers of improved PM2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017","volume":"116","author":"Zhang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosenv.2017.06.032","article-title":"Relay transport of aerosols to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by multi-scale atmospheric circulations","volume":"165","author":"Miao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Atmos. Environ."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122812","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2020.122812","article-title":"Spatio-temporal variation of the coupling relationship between urbanization and air quality: A case study of Shandong Province","volume":"272","author":"Fan","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104082","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2022.104082","article-title":"Do smart cities have lower particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5)? Evidence from China","volume":"86","author":"Cui","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106001","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2024.106001","article-title":"PM2.5 reduces the daytime\/nighttime urban heat island intensity over mainland China","volume":"118","author":"Feng","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"463","DOI":"10.15244\/pjoes\/120522","article-title":"Geographic Detector-Based Spatiotemporal Variation and Influence Factors Analysis of PM2.5 in Shandong, China","volume":"30","author":"Yu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Pol. J. Environ. Stud."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29689","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-021-17929-x","article-title":"Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of PM2.5 and its driving difference comparison associated with urbanization in China\u2019s multiple urban agglomerations","volume":"29","author":"Xu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"He, Z., Guo, Q., Wang, Z., and Li, X. (2025). A Hybrid Wavelet-Based Deep Learning Model for Accurate Prediction of Daily Surface PM2.5 Concentrations in Guangzhou City. Toxics, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/toxics13040254"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107110","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2023.107110","article-title":"Drivers of alleviated PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in China from 2013 to 2020","volume":"197","author":"Shao","year":"2023","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu, X., Wen, W., Ma, X., Qian, D., Zhang, W., and Wang, S. (2025). Air Pollution in a Northwest Chinese Valley City (2020\u20132024): Integrated WRF-HYSPLIT Modeling of Pollution Characteristics, Meteorological Drivers, and Transport Pathways in Yining. Toxics, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/toxics13100868"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"902","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.08.181","article-title":"Air pollution characteristics in China during 2015\u20132016: Spatiotemporal variations and key meteorological factors","volume":"648","author":"Li","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"230274","DOI":"10.4209\/aaqr.230274","article-title":"The Characteristics of Air Quality Changes in Hohhot City in China and their Relationship with Meteorological and Socio-economic Factors","volume":"24","author":"Guo","year":"2024","journal-title":"Aerosol Air Qual. Res."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yang, Q., Yuan, Q., Li, T., Shen, H., and Zhang, L. (2017). The Relationships between PM2.5 and Meteorological Factors in China: Seasonal and Regional Variations. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph14121510"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"134640","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chemosphere.2022.134640","article-title":"Spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 pollution and its dynamic relationships with meteorological conditions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region","volume":"301","author":"Deng","year":"2022","journal-title":"Chemosphere"},{"key":"ref_26","first-page":"100151","article-title":"Comparative suitability of ordinary kriging and Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation for indicating intactness gradients on threatened savannah woodland and forest stands","volume":"12","author":"Munyati","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ. Sustain. Indic."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"He, Z., Guo, Q., Yin, Z., Luo, X., and Sun, M. (2025). Evolution and driving mechanisms of eco-environmental quality across different urbanization stages. Sci. Rep., 15.","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-06084-9"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e19651","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e19651","article-title":"Knowledge diffusion of Geodetector: A perspective of the literature review and Geotree","volume":"9","author":"Liang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"140000","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.140000","article-title":"Significant changes in the chemical compositions and sources of PM2.5 in Wuhan since the city lockdown as COVID-19","volume":"739","author":"Zheng","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2019.05.041","article-title":"Spatiotemporal variation and socioeconomic drivers of air pollution in China during 2005\u20132016","volume":"245","author":"Xu","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119648","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2023.119648","article-title":"The existence of environmental Kuznets curve: Critical look and future implications for environmental management","volume":"351","author":"Guo","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.11.105","article-title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of recent PM2.5 concentrations over typical urban agglomerations in China","volume":"655","author":"Shen","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126270","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2025.126270","article-title":"Integrating explainable AI and causal inference to unveil regional air quality drivers in China","volume":"390","author":"Fu","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100184","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cacint.2024.100184","article-title":"Air pollution Dynamics: The role of meteorological factors in PM10 concentration patterns across urban areas","volume":"25","author":"Girotti","year":"2025","journal-title":"City Environ. Interact."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guo, Q., He, Z., and Wang, Z. (2023). Change in Air Quality during 2014\u20132021 in Jinan City in China and Its Influencing Factors. Toxics, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/toxics11030210"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169546","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2023.169546","article-title":"Elucidating drivers of severe wintertime fine particulate matter pollution episodes in the Yangtze River Delta region of eastern China","volume":"912","author":"Shu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"200545","DOI":"10.4209\/aaqr.200545","article-title":"Trends in Air Pollutant Concentrations and the Impact of Meteorology in Shandong Province, Coastal China, during 2013\u20132019","volume":"21","author":"Zhao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Aerosol Air Qual. Res."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jes.2023.07.020","article-title":"An exploration of meteorological effects on PM2.5 air quality in several provinces and cities in Vietnam","volume":"145","author":"Nguyen","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138534","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhazmat.2025.138534","article-title":"PM2.5 pollution characteristics, drivers, and regional transport during different pollution levels in Linyi, China: An integrated PMF-ML-SHAP framework and transport models","volume":"494","author":"Liu","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Hazard. Mater."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"987","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-024-01540-z","article-title":"Efficacy of China\u2019s clean air actions to tackle PM2.5 pollution between 2013 and 2020","volume":"17","author":"Geng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124940","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envpol.2024.124940","article-title":"Dynamic factors driving PM2.5 concentrations: Fresh evidence at the global level","volume":"362","author":"Subramaniam","year":"2024","journal-title":"Environ. Pollut."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"984","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2019.02.229","article-title":"The environmental Kuznets curve for PM2.5 pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China: A spatial panel data approach","volume":"220","author":"Ding","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"130456","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2024.130456","article-title":"Nonlinear effects of environmental regulation on PM2.5 and CO2 in China: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach","volume":"292","author":"Hou","year":"2024","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cui, L., Hunt, A., and Morley, B. (2021). The Effectiveness of Environmental Spending in China and the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Sustainability, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/su132112141"}],"container-title":["Toxics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2305-6304\/13\/11\/978\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,15]],"date-time":"2025-11-15T05:33:21Z","timestamp":1763184801000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2305-6304\/13\/11\/978"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,13]]},"references-count":44,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]}},"alternative-id":["toxics13110978"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/toxics13110978","relation":{},"ISSN":["2305-6304"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2305-6304","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,13]]}}}