{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,10]],"date-time":"2026-10-10T07:42:12Z","timestamp":1791618132055,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,9]],"date-time":"2025-12-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1765238400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"One Health Research, Education and Outreach Centre in Africa"},{"name":"the Gates Foundation through the Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis","award":["INV-044079"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-044079"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["TropicalMed"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Brucellosis is a bacterial zoonotic disease which poses a significant public health challenge globally. In Kenya, it is a priority zoonosis, causing morbidity and losses in humans and animals. Here, we used monthly surveillance data from 2014 to 2022 from the official human and animal health surveillance databases. We conducted spatiotemporal analysis, tested associations between human and animal brucellosis using Time Series Linear Models, and forecasted the incidence of human brucellosis for twelve months using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. Our analysis revealed a significant disparity in brucellosis cases, with a much higher cumulative number of human cases (4,688,787) compared to animal cases (1214). Human incidence depicted a relatively stable trend, with occasional fluctuations. However, cattle and camel incidences displayed sporadic peaks and troughs. Only cattle brucellosis was significantly associated (estimate: 0.355; 95% CI: 0.004 to 0.707) with human brucellosis. SARIMA models demonstrated reasonable predictive accuracy for human incidence, but incorporating animal data did not significantly improve model performance. Our study highlights the weaknesses in the existing surveillance systems and the need for comprehensive evaluation of the systems and implementation of integrated surveillance to address gaps in surveillance, improve the accuracy of predictive analysis, and enhance early detection for zoonotic diseases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/tropicalmed10120344","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,9]],"date-time":"2025-12-09T15:50:02Z","timestamp":1765295402000},"page":"344","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Integrated Surveillance for Human and Animal Brucellosis in Kenya: A Predictive Analysis"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3190-8543","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samuel","family":"Kahariri","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Directorate of Livestock Policy, Research and Regulations, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, Nairobi 00625, Kenya"},{"name":"International Livestock Research Institute, Old Naivasha Road, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya"},{"name":"Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676, Nairobi 00202, Kenya"},{"name":"Department of Medical Microbiology & Immunology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi 00100, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lian F.","family":"Thomas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Livestock Research Institute, Old Naivasha Road, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya"},{"name":"Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bernard","family":"Bett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Livestock Research Institute, Old Naivasha Road, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9119-3167","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marianne W.","family":"Mureithi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medical Microbiology & Immunology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi 00100, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2559-3618","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anita","family":"Makori","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676, Nairobi 00202, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-2119-904X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Brian","family":"Njuguna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676, Nairobi 00202, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Samuel","family":"Kadivane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Disease Surveillance and Response, Ministry of Health, Nairobi 00100, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1802-2545","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dennis N.","family":"Makau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA"},{"name":"Department of Public Health, Pharmacology and Toxicology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Nairobi, Nairobi 00100, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nyamai","family":"Mutono","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676, Nairobi 00202, Kenya"},{"name":"Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5754-0556","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S. M.","family":"Thumbi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676, Nairobi 00202, Kenya"},{"name":"Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA"},{"name":"Institute of Immunology and Infection Research, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Kings Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1789","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2909.230052","article-title":"Global Estimate of Human Brucellosis Incidence","volume":"29","author":"Laine","year":"2023","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.32.1.2197","article-title":"Economics of brucellosis impact and control in low-income countries","volume":"32","author":"McDermott","year":"2013","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. 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