{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,16]],"date-time":"2026-08-16T04:26:38Z","timestamp":1786854398415,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":175,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786665600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000974","name":"Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000974","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/04wyg6495","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Philippine Department of Science and Technology (DOST)\u2014Science Education Institute"},{"name":"Science Education Institute"},{"name":"DOST\u2014Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development"},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/057p7e749","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Operational Research and Decision Support for Infectious Diseases (ODeSI) programme"},{"name":"The University of Queensland\u2019s Health Research Accelerator (HERA) initiative"},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator Grants","award":["1193826"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1193826"]}]},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator Grants","award":["2034827"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2034827"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Trop. Med. Infect. Dis.","TropicalMed"],"abstract":"<jats:p>African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of domestic and wild pigs that has re-emerged as a major transboundary disease. Modelling using mechanistic, statistical, and machine learning (ML) approaches plays a key role in understanding ASF transmission and informing disease control, but the literature remains fragmented. To synthesise global ASF modelling efforts, we systematically reviewed studies applying these three approaches. We examined temporal and geographic trends, modelling objectives, explanatory variables, and model evaluation practices. A total of 151 papers published through 2024 met the inclusion criteria. Mechanistic (54.3%) and statistical (40.4%) approaches predominated, whereas ML (9.3%) was increasingly applied in recent years. Mechanistic models were primarily used to assess control strategies (48.8%) and transmission drivers (41.5%), statistical models to identify risk factors (63.9%) and spatiotemporal spread (32.8%), and ML for environmental suitability modelling (64.3%). Most were published from 2011 (99.3%) and focused on Europe (43.0%) and Asia (26.5%). Model evaluation remained inconsistent, with mechanistic papers frequently lacking model output uncertainty quantification (47.0%) and statistical papers often omitting model adequacy assessment (49.2%) and assumption checking (50.8%). Overall, ASF modelling approaches have developed complementary methodological roles, while geographic underrepresentation, limited representation of some transmission pathways, and inconsistent model evaluation remain important gaps.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/tropicalmed11080228","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T15:48:36Z","timestamp":1786722516000},"page":"228","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9312-1482","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kim Dianne B.","family":"Ligue-Sabio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science, College of Science and Mathematics, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City 8022, Philippines"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoni","family":"Nazarathy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Physics, Faculty of Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3197-0969","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kien Quoc","family":"Do","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luis","family":"Furuya-Kanamori","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yusuf A.","family":"Sucol","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"UPLB Climate and Disaster Risks Studies Center, School of Environmental Science and Management, University of the Philippines Los Ba\u00f1os, Los Ba\u00f1os 4031, Philippines"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6761-2325","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Benn","family":"Sartorius","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8288-4169","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Colleen L.","family":"Lau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"198099","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virusres.2020.198099","article-title":"African swine fever\u2014A review of current knowledge","volume":"287","author":"Blome","year":"2020","journal-title":"Virus Res."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"34","DOI":"10.1016\/j.antiviral.2019.02.018","article-title":"African swine fever","volume":"165","author":"Dixon","year":"2019","journal-title":"Antivir. 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