{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,12]],"date-time":"2025-10-12T01:41:28Z","timestamp":1760233288414,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,27]],"date-time":"2022-12-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672099200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["82073673","12171396","2018ZX10715002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82073673","12171396","2018ZX10715002"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"National S&amp;T Major Project Foundation of China","award":["82073673","12171396","2018ZX10715002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82073673","12171396","2018ZX10715002"]}]},{"name":"Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)","award":["82073673","12171396","2018ZX10715002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82073673","12171396","2018ZX10715002"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["TropicalMed"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the effect of various vaccination scenarios was qualitatively evaluated by numerical simulation. The estimated basic reproduction number was 1.831 \u00b1 0.078, and the greatest contributor was the 5\u201310 year-old group (0.747 \u00b1 0.042, 40.80%). Sensitivity analysis indicated that there was a strong negative correlation between the second dose vaccination coverage rate and basic reproduction number. In addition, we qualitatively found that the incidence would significantly decrease as the second dose vaccine coverage expands. The results suggest that two-dose varicella vaccination should be mandatory, and the optimal age of second dose vaccination is the 5\u201310 year-old group. Optimal vaccination time, wide vaccine coverage along with other measures, could enhance the effectiveness of prevention and control of varicella in China.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/tropicalmed8010017","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,27]],"date-time":"2022-12-27T02:55:07Z","timestamp":1672109707000},"page":"17","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0030-7016","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiang","family":"Sun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Expanded Program on Immunization, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chenxi","family":"Dai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing 400038, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kai","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The First Clinical Medical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yuanbao","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Expanded Program on Immunization, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xinye","family":"Jin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Congyue","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yi","family":"Yin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhongxing","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhenzhen","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7562-8260","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Weiming","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhiguo","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Expanded Program on Immunization, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fenyang","family":"Tang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Expanded Program on Immunization, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kaifa","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4372-2487","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhihang","family":"Peng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S27","DOI":"10.1016\/S0163-4453(17)30188-3","article-title":"Is chickenpox so bad, what do we know about immunity to varicella zoster virus, and what does it tell us about the future?","volume":"74","author":"Gershon","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. 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