{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T04:04:44Z","timestamp":1790827484792,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":102,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,29]],"date-time":"2021-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622246400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"German Research Platform for Zoonoses and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research","award":["FKZ: 01KI1601"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FKZ: 01KI1601"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004543","name":"China Scholarship Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["201506040059"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["201506040059"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004543","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"German Research Foundation (DFG)","award":["Open Access Publishing"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Open Access Publishing"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Chikungunya virus disease (chikungunya) is a mosquito-borne infectious disease reported in at least 50 countries, mostly in the tropics. It has spread around the globe within the last two decades, with local outbreaks in Europe. The vector mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) has already widely established itself in southern Europe and is spreading towards central parts of the continent. Public health authorities and policymakers need to be informed about where and when a chikungunya transmission is likely to take place. Here, we adapted a previously published global ecological niche model (ENM) by including only non-tropical chikungunya occurrence records and selecting bioclimatic variables that can reflect the temperate and sub-tropical conditions in Europe with greater accuracy. Additionally, we applied an epidemiological model to capture the temporal outbreak risk of chikungunya in six selected European cities. Overall, the non-tropical ENM captures all the previous outbreaks in Europe, whereas the global ENM had underestimated the risk. Highly suitable areas are more widespread than previously assumed. They are found in coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea, in the western part of the Iberian Peninsula, and in Atlantic coastal areas of France. Under a worst-case scenario, even large areas of western Germany and the Benelux states are considered potential areas of transmission. For the six selected European cities, June\u2013September (the 22th\u201338th week) is the most vulnerable time period, with the maximum continuous duration of a possible transmission period lasting up to 93 days (Ravenna, Italy).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v13061024","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,31]],"date-time":"2021-05-31T03:45:29Z","timestamp":1622432729000},"page":"1024","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":28,"title":["Chikungunya Beyond the Tropics: Where and When Do We Expect Disease Transmission in Europe?"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Nils Benjamin","family":"Tjaden","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanchao","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6456-4628","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carl","family":"Beierkuhnlein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany"},{"name":"Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0507-2006","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stephanie Margarete","family":"Thomas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany"},{"name":"Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rezza, G., and Weaver, S.C. (2019). Chikungunya as a paradigm for emerging viral diseases: Evaluating disease impact and hurdles to vaccine development. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 13.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006919"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E107","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(16)30385-1","article-title":"Chikungunya virus: An update on the biology and pathogenesis of this emerging pathogen","volume":"17","author":"Burt","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(55)90080-8","article-title":"An epidemic of virus disease in southern province, Tanganyika territory, in 1952-53. I. Clinical features","volume":"49","author":"Robinson","year":"1955","journal-title":"Trans R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"463","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-019-3732-0","article-title":"Sylvatic cycles of arboviruses in non-human primates","volume":"12","author":"Valentine","year":"2019","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"G\u00e9rardin, P., Samp\u00e9riz, S., Ramful, D., Boumahni, B., Bintner, M., Alessandri, J.L., Carbonnier, M., Tiran-Rajaoefera, I., Beullier, G., and Boya, I. (2014). Neurocognitive outcome of children exposed to perinatal mother-to-child chikungunya virus infection: The CHIMERE cohort study on Reunion Island. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 8.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002996"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2016.09.009","article-title":"Congenital and perinatal complications of chikungunya fever: A Latin American experience","volume":"51","author":"Torres","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"313","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-ento-011019-025207","article-title":"Chikungunya virus: Role of vectors in emergence from enzootic cycles","volume":"65","author":"Weaver","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S436","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiw391","article-title":"Chikungunya: Its history in Africa and Asia and its spread to new regions in 2013-2014","volume":"214","author":"Zeller","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"(2020, May 28). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Geographical Distribution of Chikungunya Virus Disease Cases Reported Worldwide. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/geographical-distribution-chikungunya-virus-disease-cases-reported-worldwide-2019."},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"(2020, May 28). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Countries and territories Where Chikungunya Cases Have Been Reported (as of September 17, 2019), Available online: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/chikungunya\/geo\/index.html."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1085","DOI":"10.1126\/science.311.5764.1085a","article-title":"Infectious diseases\u2014Massive outbreak draws fresh attention to little-known virus","volume":"311","author":"Enserink","year":"2006","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70107-X","article-title":"Chikungunya, an epidemic arbovirosis","volume":"7","author":"Pialoux","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"306","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70091-9","article-title":"Chikungunya epidemic in India: A major public-health disaster","volume":"7","author":"Mavalankar","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"769","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp078013","article-title":"Chikungunya outbreaks\u2014The globalization of vectorborne diseases","volume":"356","author":"Charrel","year":"2007","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1493","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1210.060610","article-title":"Novel chikungunya virus variant in travelers returning from Indian Ocean islands","volume":"12","author":"Parola","year":"2006","journal-title":"Emerging Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"(2020, May 28). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USA-Basically Yellowbook 2020 Information. Chikungunya, Chapter 4: Travel-Related Infectious Diseases, Available online: https:\/\/wwwnc.cdc.gov\/travel\/yellowbook\/2020\/travel-related-infectious-diseases\/chikungunya#box401."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"2","article-title":"Spread of chikungunya from the Caribbean to mainland Central and South America: A greater risk of spillover in Europe?","volume":"19","author":"Rizzo","year":"2014","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1249","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.18-0980","article-title":"Global outbreaks and origins of a chikungunya virus variant carrying mutations which may increase fitness for Aedes aegypti: Revelations from the 2016 Mandera, Kenya outbreak","volume":"100","author":"Berry","year":"2019","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1118","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(17)30564-9","article-title":"The 2017 Dhaka chikungunya outbreak","volume":"17","author":"Kabir","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"258","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(17)30074-9","article-title":"Outbreak of chikungunya in Pakistan","volume":"17","author":"Rauf","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1247","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trstmh.2008.04.014","article-title":"An outbreak of yellow fever with concurrent chikungunya virus transmission in South Kordofan, Sudan, 2005","volume":"102","author":"Gould","year":"2008","journal-title":"Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trx059","article-title":"Evidence of chikungunya virus circulation in the Terai region of Nepal in 2014 and 2015","volume":"111","author":"Pandey","year":"2017","journal-title":"Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Neto, A.S.L., Sousa, G.S., Nascimento, O.J., and Castro, M.C. (2019). Chikungunya-attributable deaths: A neglected outcome of a neglected disease. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 13.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007575"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1840","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)61779-6","article-title":"Infection with chikungunya virus in Italy: An outbreak in a temperate region","volume":"370","author":"Rezza","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"910","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1705.101873","article-title":"Chikungunya virus, Southeastern France","volume":"17","author":"Grandadam","year":"2011","journal-title":"Emerging Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES2015.20.17.21108","article-title":"Chikungunya outbreak in Montpellier, France, September to October 2014","volume":"20","author":"Delisle","year":"2015","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Roiz, D., Bouss\u00e8s, P., Simard, F., Paupy, C., and Fontenille, D. (2015). Autochthonous chikungunya transmission and extreme climate events in southern France. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 9.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003854"},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"(2020, May 28). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Epidemiological update: Chikungunya\u2013Europe-2017. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/news-events\/epidemiological-update-chikungunya-europe-2017."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"(2020, May 28). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Rapid Risk Assessment: Clusters of Autochthonous Chikungunya Cases in Italy. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/rapid-risk-assessment-clusters-autochthonous-chikungunya-cases-italy."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"(2020, May 28). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Rapid Risk Assessment: Clusters of Autochthonous Chikungunya Cases in Italy, First Update. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/rapid-risk-assessment-clusters-autochthonous-chikungunya-cases-italy-first-update."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.39.17-00646","article-title":"Detection of a chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy, August to September 2017","volume":"22","author":"Venturi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"tay004","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/tay004","article-title":"Chikungunya is back in Italy: 2007\u20132017","volume":"25","author":"Rezza","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Travel Med."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S387","DOI":"10.1016\/j.respe.2018.05.410","article-title":"Investigation of an autochthonous chikungunya outbreak, July\u2013September 2017, France","volume":"66","author":"Calba","year":"2018","journal-title":"Revue d\u2019\u00c9pid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique"},{"key":"ref_34","unstructured":"(2020, May 28). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Rapid Risk Assessment: Cluster of Autochthonous Chikungunya Cases in France. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/rapid-risk-assessment-cluster-autochthonous-chikungunya-cases-france."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cebri\u00e1n-Camis\u00f3n, S., Mart\u00ednez-de la Puente, J., and Figuerola, J. (2020). A literature review of host feeding patterns of invasive Aedes mosquitoes in Europe. Insects, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/insects11120848"},{"key":"ref_36","first-page":"13","article-title":"Prani e mushkonj\u00ebs Aedes albopictus n\u00eb shqip\u00ebri","volume":"I","author":"Adhami","year":"1987","journal-title":"Rev Mjekesore"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3360","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph110303360","article-title":"Implementing cargo movement into climate based risk assessment of vector-borne diseases","volume":"11","author":"Thomas","year":"2014","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1787","DOI":"10.1007\/s00436-012-3230-1","article-title":"Repeated introduction of Aedes albopictus into Germany, July to October 2012","volume":"112","author":"Becker","year":"2013","journal-title":"Parasitol. Res."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-5-100","article-title":"Low-temperature threshold for egg survival of a post-diapause and non-diapause European aedine strain, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae)","volume":"5","author":"Thomas","year":"2012","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tippelt, L., Werner, D., and Kampen, H. (2019). Tolerance of three Aedes albopictus strains (Diptera: Culicidae) from different geographical origins towards winter temperatures under field conditions in northern Germany. PLoS ONE, 14.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0219553"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-020-04054-w","article-title":"Does winter cold really limit the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Europe?","volume":"13","author":"Kramer","year":"2020","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"Peterson, A.T. (2014). Mapping Disease Transmission Risk: Enriching Models Using Biogeography and Ecology, Johns Hopkins University Press."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2017.11.006","article-title":"Mosquito-borne diseases: Advances in modelling climate-change impacts","volume":"34","author":"Tjaden","year":"2018","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of Dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"559","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-02760160149","article-title":"Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread","volume":"111","author":"Samy","year":"2016","journal-title":"Memorias Do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2018.08.014","article-title":"Mapping the potential distributions of etiological agent, vectors, and reservoirs of Japanese Encephalitis in Asia and Australia","volume":"188","author":"Samy","year":"2018","journal-title":"Acta Trop."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.20.30234","article-title":"Global distribution and environmental suitability for Chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015","volume":"21","author":"Nsoesie","year":"2016","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3813","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-03566-3","article-title":"Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century","volume":"7","author":"Tjaden","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"274","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tmaid.2013.07.006","article-title":"Chikungunya and dengue autochthonous cases in Europe, 2007\u20132012","volume":"11","author":"Tomasello","year":"2013","journal-title":"Travel Med. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"067001","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP669","article-title":"Assessment of the probability of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya virus in Canada under recent and projected climate change","volume":"125","author":"Ng","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108817","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2019.108817","article-title":"Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review","volume":"411","author":"Pecchi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Valencia-Rodr\u00edguez, D., Jim\u00e9nez-Segura, L., Rog\u00e9liz, C.A., and Parra, J.L. (2021). Ecological niche modeling as an effective tool to predict the distribution of freshwater organisms: The case of the Sabaleta Brycon henni (Eigenmann, 1913). PLoS ONE, 16.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0247876"},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"715","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2018.00715","article-title":"Invasion of a legume ecosystem engineer in a cold biome alters plant biodiversity","volume":"9","author":"Vetter","year":"2018","journal-title":"Front. Plant Sci."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1163\/15685381-20201283","article-title":"New records and a revision of the actual and potential distribution of Discoglossus montalentii to facilitate future conservation assessments","volume":"41","author":"Beukema","year":"2020","journal-title":"Amphib. Reptil."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026","article-title":"Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions","volume":"190","author":"Phillips","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"180214","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2018.214","article-title":"Present and future K\u00f6ppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution","volume":"5","author":"Beck","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"611","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.13240","article-title":"Using centroids of spatial units in ecological niche modelling: Effects on model performance in the context of environmental data grain size","volume":"30","author":"Cheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Global Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.01132","article-title":"spThin: An R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models","volume":"38","author":"Boria","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_59","unstructured":"R Core Team (2020, May 28). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Available online: http:\/\/www.R-project.org\/."},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4302","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086","article-title":"WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"Fick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"589","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.010","article-title":"Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: How far should you stray from what you know?","volume":"220","author":"VanDerWal","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"ref_62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cheng, Y.C., Tjaden, N.B., Jaeschke, A., L\u00fcken, R., Ziegler, U., Thomas, S.M., and Beierkuhnlein, C. (2018). Evaluating the risk for Usutu virus circulation in Europe: Comparison of environmental niche models and epidemiological models. Int. J. Health Geogr., 17.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12942-018-0155-7"},{"key":"ref_63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x","article-title":"Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)","volume":"43","author":"Allouche","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x","article-title":"A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists","volume":"17","author":"Elith","year":"2011","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"ref_65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1198","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.12261","article-title":"ENMeval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for MAXENT ecological niche models","volume":"5","author":"Muscarella","year":"2014","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Takken, W. (2007). Waiting for the tiger: Establishment and spread of the Aedes albopictus mosquito in Europe. Emerging Pests and Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe, Wageningen Academic Publishers.","DOI":"10.3920\/978-90-8686-626-7"},{"key":"ref_67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tmaid.2016.12.004","article-title":"The public health planners\u2019 perfect storm: Hurricane Matthew and Zika virus","volume":"15","author":"Ahmed","year":"2017","journal-title":"Travel Med. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_68","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/45.1.28","article-title":"Flushing effect of rain on container-inhabiting mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae)","volume":"45","author":"Koenraadt","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_69","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1267","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.00845","article-title":"What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?","volume":"37","author":"Merow","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.03.012","article-title":"On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling","volume":"330","author":"Bell","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"ref_71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"726","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.02909","article-title":"The challenge of modeling niches and distributions for data-poor species: A comprehensive approach to model complexity","volume":"41","author":"Galante","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_72","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2007.11.008","article-title":"Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling","volume":"213","author":"Peterson","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"ref_73","unstructured":"Barve, N., and Barve, V. (2020, May 28). ENMGadgets: Pre and Post Processing in ENM Workflow; R package version 0.1.0.1; 2019. Available online: https:\/\/rdrr.io\/github\/narayanibarve\/ENMGadgets\/."},{"key":"ref_74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"330","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x","article-title":"The art of modelling range-shifting species","volume":"1","author":"Elith","year":"2010","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"778","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.12058","article-title":"Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data","volume":"40","author":"Liu","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"ref_76","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.1878","article-title":"On the selection of thresholds for predicting species occurrence with presence-only data","volume":"6","author":"Liu","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_77","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2011.06545.x","article-title":"The effects of small sample size and sample bias on threshold selection and accuracy assessment of species distribution models","volume":"35","author":"Bean","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_78","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x","article-title":"Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions","volume":"28","author":"Liu","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_79","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1441","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.773","article-title":"Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment","volume":"22","author":"Tank","year":"2002","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_80","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zeileis, A., and Grothendieck, G. (2005). zoo: S3 infrastructure for regular and irregular time series. J. Stat.Softw., 14.","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v014.i06"},{"key":"ref_81","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9391","DOI":"10.1029\/2017JD028200","article-title":"An ensemble version of the E-OBS temperature and precipitation data sets","volume":"123","author":"Cornes","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"ref_82","unstructured":"(2021, April 13). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Aedes albopictus\u2014Current Known Distribution: March 2021. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications-data\/aedes-albopictus-current-known-distribution-march-2021."},{"key":"ref_83","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"198","DOI":"10.3389\/fphys.2012.00198","article-title":"Global climate change and its potential impact on disease transmission by salinity-tolerant mosquito vectors in coastal zones","volume":"3","author":"Ramasamy","year":"2012","journal-title":"Front. Physiol."},{"key":"ref_84","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02250577","article-title":"Effects of wind on the behaviour and distribution of mosquitoes and blackflies","volume":"24","author":"Service","year":"1980","journal-title":"Int. J. Biometeorol."},{"key":"ref_85","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Poletti, P., Messeri, G., Ajellii, M., Vallorani, R., Rizzo, C., and Merler, S. (2011). Transmission potential of chikungunya virus and control measures: The case of Italy. PLoS ONE, 6.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0018860"},{"key":"ref_86","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.44.17-00685","article-title":"Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: From coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017","volume":"22","author":"Manica","year":"2017","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_87","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1041","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2506.180138","article-title":"Using big data to monitor the introduction and spread of chikungunya, Europe, 2017","volume":"25","author":"Tozan","year":"2019","journal-title":"Emerging Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_88","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16435","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-34664-5","article-title":"Estimating the risk of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in a large European city","volume":"8","author":"Solimini","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_89","first-page":"160","article-title":"Estimating vector-borne viral infections in the urban setting of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Japan, using mathematical modeling","volume":"42","author":"Furuya","year":"2017","journal-title":"Tokai J. Exp. Clin. Med."},{"key":"ref_90","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Manore, C.A., Ostfeld, R.S., Agusto, F.B., Gaff, H., and LaDeau, S.L. (2017). Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005255"},{"key":"ref_91","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ryan, S.J., Carlson, C.J., Mordecai, E.A., and Johnson, L.R. (2019). Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 13.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007213"},{"key":"ref_92","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actao.2016.08.014","article-title":"Evaluating how species niche modelling is affected by partial distributions with an empirical case","volume":"77","author":"Carretero","year":"2016","journal-title":"Acta Oecol."},{"key":"ref_93","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2009.00497.x","article-title":"Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models","volume":"19","author":"Medley","year":"2010","journal-title":"Global Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"ref_94","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"860","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182016000421","article-title":"Dengue and chikungunya: Modelling the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses into na\u00efve populations","volume":"143","author":"Wearing","year":"2016","journal-title":"Parasitology"},{"key":"ref_95","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chipwaza, B., Mugasa, J.P., Selemani, M., Amuri, M., Mosha, F., Ngatunga, S.D., and Gwakisa, P.S. (2014). Dengue and Chikungunya fever among viral diseases in outpatient febrile children in Kilosa district hospital, Tanzania. PLoS Negl. Trop Dis., 8.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003335"},{"key":"ref_96","first-page":"315","article-title":"Chikungunya epidemic: An Indian perspective","volume":"19","author":"Kalantri","year":"2006","journal-title":"Natl. Med. J. India"},{"key":"ref_97","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischer, D., Thomas, S.M., Suk, J.E., Sudre, B., Hess, A., Tjaden, N.B., Beierkuhnlein, C., and Semenza, J.C. (2013). Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: Geospatial analysis of vector\u2019s climatic suitability and virus\u2019 temperature requirements. Int. J. Health Geogr., 12.","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-12-51"},{"key":"ref_98","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"854","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0376-y","article-title":"Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus","volume":"4","author":"Kraemer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Microbiol."},{"key":"ref_99","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"693","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2019.02.026","article-title":"Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100","volume":"172","author":"Sewe","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ. Res."},{"key":"ref_100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Vega-R\u00faa, A., Marconcini, M., Madec, Y., Manni, M., Carraretto, D., Gomulski, L.M., Gasperi, G., Failloux, A.B., and Malacrida, A.R. (2020). Vector competence of Aedes albopictus populations for chikungunya virus is shaped by their demographic history. Commun. Biol., 3.","DOI":"10.1038\/s42003-020-1046-6"},{"key":"ref_101","unstructured":"(2021, May 20). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in EU\/EEA, 2007\u20132017. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/all-topics-z\/chikungunya-virus-disease\/surveillance-and-disease-data\/autochthonous-transmission."},{"key":"ref_102","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"417","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.18-0097","article-title":"Differential effects of temperature and mosquito genetics determine transmissibility of arboviruses by Aedes aegypti in Argentina","volume":"99","author":"Ciota","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."}],"container-title":["Viruses"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/13\/6\/1024\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T06:10:21Z","timestamp":1760163021000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/13\/6\/1024"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,29]]},"references-count":102,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6]]}},"alternative-id":["v13061024"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/v13061024","relation":{},"ISSN":["1999-4915"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1999-4915","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,29]]}}}