{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]],"date-time":"2026-06-16T15:54:23Z","timestamp":1781625263487,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":60,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,12]],"date-time":"2022-10-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1665532800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"the Italian Ministry of Health","award":["IZSSA RC01\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["IZSSA RC01\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>After fifty years of spread in the European continent, the African swine fever (ASF) virus was detected for the first time in the north of Italy (Piedmont) in a wild boar carcass in December, 2021. During the first six months of the epidemic, the central role of wild boars in disease transmission was confirmed by more than 200 outbreaks, which occurred in two different areas declared as infected. The virus entered a domestic pig farm in the second temporal cluster identified in the center of the country (Lazio). Understanding ASF dynamics in wild boars is a prerequisite for preventing the spread, and for designing and applying effective surveillance and control plans. The aim of this work was to describe and evaluate the data collected during the first six months of the ASF epidemic in Italy, and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) in order to quantify the extent of disease spread. The R0 estimates were significantly different for the two spatio-temporal clusters of ASF in Italy, and they identified the two infected areas based on the time necessary for the number of cases to double (td) and on an exponential decay model. These results (R0 = 1.41 in Piedmont and 1.66 in Lazio) provide quantitative knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF in Italy. These parameters could represent a fundamental tool for modeling country-specific ASF transmission and for monitoring both the spread and sampling effort needed to detect the disease early.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v14102240","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,12]],"date-time":"2022-10-12T22:45:29Z","timestamp":1665614729000},"page":"2240","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Estimation of R0 for the Spread of the First ASF Epidemic in Italy from Fresh Carcasses"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3045-3150","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Federica","family":"Loi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Osservatorio Epidemiologico Veterinario Regionale della Sardegna, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sardegna, 07100 Sassari, Italy"},{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell\u2019Abruzzo e del Molise G. Caporale, 64100 Teramo, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0348-3709","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daria","family":"Di Sabatino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell\u2019Abruzzo e del Molise G. Caporale, 64100 Teramo, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8578-9164","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ileana","family":"Baldi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiac Thoracic Vascular Sciences and Public Health, University of Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6429-5069","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sandro","family":"Rolesu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Osservatorio Epidemiologico Veterinario Regionale della Sardegna, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sardegna, 07100 Sassari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6773-9227","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vincenzo","family":"Gervasi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), 00144 Roma, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vittorio","family":"Guberti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), 00144 Roma, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1481-1747","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefano","family":"Cappai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Osservatorio Epidemiologico Veterinario Regionale della Sardegna, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sardegna, 07100 Sassari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Penrith, M.L., Guberti, V., Depner, K., and Lubroth, J. (2009). Preparation of African swine fever contingency plans. Animal Production and Health Manual, FAO. No. 8."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-animal-021419-083741","article-title":"African swine fever epidemiology and control","volume":"8","author":"Dixon","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Anim. Biosci."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) (2022, August 19). Terrestrial Animal Health Code. Available online: https:\/\/www.oie.int\/en\/what-we-do\/standards\/codes-andmanuals\/terrestrial-code-online-access\/."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"(2022, August 19). EU Regulation EU 2016\/429 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9 March 2016 on Transmissible Animal Diseases and Amending and Repealing Certain Acts in the Area of Animal Health (\u2018Animal Health Law\u2019). Available online: https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/eli\/reg\/2016\/429\/2021-04-21."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2846","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.6100","article-title":"Ecological drivers of African swine fever virus persistence in wild boar populations: Insight for control","volume":"10","author":"Pepin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2812","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.14194","article-title":"African swine fever endemic persistence in wild boar populations: Key mechanisms explored through modelling","volume":"68","author":"Gervasi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1186\/s13028-022-00636-z","article-title":"Estimating the risk of environmental contamination by forest users in African Swine Fever endemic areas","volume":"64","author":"Gervasi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Acta Vet. Scand."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"622","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaz8590","article-title":"No hasty solutions for African swine fever","volume":"367","author":"Dixon","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"198099","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virusres.2020.198099","article-title":"African swine fever\u2014A review of current knowledge","volume":"287","author":"Blome","year":"2020","journal-title":"Virus Res."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keeling, M.J., and Rohani, P. (2008). Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals, Princeton University Press.","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400841035"},{"key":"ref_11","unstructured":"Council Directive of the European Union 2002\/60\/EC (2002). Specific Provisions for the Control of African Swine Fever and Amending Directive 92\/119\/EEC as Regards Teschen Disease and African Swine Fever. Off. J. Eur. Union L., 192, 27\u201346."},{"key":"ref_12","unstructured":"Guberti, V., Khomenko, S., Masiulis, M., and Kerba, S. (2022). African Swine Fever in Wild Boar\u2014Ecology and Biosecurity, FAO. [2nd ed.]. FAO Animal Production and Health Manual No. 28."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105633","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2022.105633","article-title":"Combining hunting and intensive carcass removal to eradicate African swine fever from wild boar populations","volume":"203","author":"Gervasi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"33","article-title":"Modelling advanced knowledge of African swine fever, resulting surveillance patterns on the population level and impact to reliable exit strategy definition","volume":"6429","author":"Lange","year":"2021","journal-title":"EFSA Support. Publ."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), Nielsen, S.S., Alvarez, J., Bicout, D.J., Calistri, P., Depner, K., Drewe, J.A., Garin-Bastuji, B., Gonzales Rojas, J.L., and Gortazar Schmidt, C. (2021). ASF exit strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures. EFSA J., 19, e06419.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2021.6419"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1865-1682.2011.01293.x","article-title":"African swine fever: An epidemiological update","volume":"59","author":"Mur","year":"2012","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2683","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2009.0098","article-title":"African swine fever: How can global spread be prevented?","volume":"364","author":"Costard","year":"2009","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-5877(98)00063-4","article-title":"Temporal and spatial patterns of African swine fever in Sardinia","volume":"35","author":"Mannelli","year":"1998","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2018.01.004","article-title":"Evaluation of biological and socio-economic factors related to persistence of African swine fever in Sardinia","volume":"152","author":"Cappai","year":"2018","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2011.07.004","article-title":"Cartographical analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation and computer modeling of the basic reproduction ratio","volume":"102","author":"Gulenkin","year":"2011","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1870","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1412.080591","article-title":"African swine fever virus isolate, Georgia, 2007","volume":"14","author":"Rowlands","year":"2008","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1424","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.12527","article-title":"Update on the risk of introduction of African swine fever by wild boar into disease-free European Union countries","volume":"64","author":"Bosch","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cwynar, P., Stojkov, J., and Wlazlak, K. (2019). African swine fever status in Europe. Viruses, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/v11040310"},{"key":"ref_24","first-page":"1744","article-title":"Joining the club: First detection of African swine fever in wild boar in Germany","volume":"68","author":"Forth","year":"2020","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Boklund, A., B\u00f8tner, A., Chesnoiu, V.T., Depner, K., Desmecht, D., Guberti, V., Helyes, G., Korytarova, D., and Linden, A. (2020). Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European union (November 2018 to October 2019). EFSA J., 18, 5996.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2020.5996"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1707","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.14584","article-title":"January 2022: Index case of new African Swine Fever incursion in main land Italy","volume":"69","author":"Iscaro","year":"2022","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"299","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2019.00299","article-title":"Standardized Risk Analysis Approach Aimed to Evaluate the Last African Swine Fever Eradication Program Performance, in Sardinia","volume":"6","author":"Loi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front. Vet. Sci."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) (2022, August 19). African Swine Fever (ASF)\u2014Situation Report 6. Available online: https:\/\/www.woah.org\/app\/uploads\/2022\/02\/asf-report6.pdf."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1502","DOI":"10.1002\/vms3.824","article-title":"Analysis of surveillance and prevention plan for African Swine Fever in Italy in 2020","volume":"8","author":"Iscaro","year":"2022","journal-title":"Vet. Med. Sci."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beltran-Alcrudo, D., Falco, J.R., Raizman, E., and Dietze, K. (2019). Transboundary spread of pig diseases: The role of international trade and travel. BMC Vet. Res., 15.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12917-019-1800-5"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1619","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2664.13649","article-title":"Unravelling the dispersal dynamics and ecological drivers of the African swine fever outbreak in Belgium","volume":"57","author":"Dellicour","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), Cortinas Abrahantes, J., Gogin, A., Richardson, J., and Gervelmeyer, A. (2017). Scientific report on epidemiological analyses on African swine fever in the Baltic countries and Poland. EFSA J., 15, 4732\u20134773.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2017.4732"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), Alvarez, J., Bicout, D., Boklund, A., B\u00f8tner, A., Depner, K., More, S.J., Roberts, H., Stahl, K., and Thulke, H.H. (2019). Research gap analysis on African swine fever. EFSA J., 17, e05811.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2019.5811"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.13047","article-title":"Summer 2018: African swine fever virus hits north-western Europe","volume":"66","author":"Linden","year":"2019","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_35","first-page":"147","article-title":"D\u00e9couverte Inattendue De La Peste Porcine Africaine En Belgique","volume":"73","author":"Saegerman","year":"2018","journal-title":"\u00c9pid\u00e9miol. St. Anim."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and World Organisation for Animal Health and European Commission (2019). African Swine Fever in Wild Boar Ecology and Biosecurity, FAO."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"World Organisation for Animal Health (2022, October 04). African Swine Fever. Available online: https:\/\/www.oie.int\/en\/animal-health-in-the-world\/animal-diseases\/african-swine-fever."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Bailey, N.T.J. (1975). The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and Its Applications, Hafner. [2nd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Anderson, R.M., and May, R.M. (1991). Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control, Oxford University Press. [2nd ed.]. Chapter 6.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1038\/nature02104","article-title":"The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases","volume":"426","author":"Antia","year":"2003","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3937","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2009.1059","article-title":"Evolution and emergence of novel human infections","volume":"276","author":"Arinaminpathy","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Marcon, A., Linden, A., Satran, P., Gervasi, V., Licoppe, A., and Guberti, V. (2020). R0 Estimation for the African Swine Fever Epidemics in Wild Boar of Czech Republic and Belgium. Vet. Sci., 7.","DOI":"10.3390\/vetsci7010002"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e237","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.12337","article-title":"Reproductive Ratio for the Local Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boars in the Russian Federation","volume":"63","author":"Iglesias","year":"2016","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barongo, M.B., St\u00e5hl, K., Bett, B., Bishop, R.P., F\u00e8vre, E.M., Aliro, T., Okoth, E., Masembe, C., Knobel, D., and Ssematimba, A. (2015). Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda. PLoS ONE, 10.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0125842"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1858","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.12583","article-title":"Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number for African Swine Fever Using the Ukrainian Historical Epidemic of 1977","volume":"64","author":"Korennoy","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"S\u00e1nchez-Cord\u00f3n, P.J., Nunez, A., Neimanis, A., Wikstr\u00f6m-Lassa, E., Montoya, M., Crooke, H., and Gavier-Wid\u00e9n, D. (2019). African Swine Fever: Disease Dynamics in Wild Boar Experimentally Infected with ASFV Isolates Belonging to Genotype I and II. Viruses, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/v11090852"},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"Huang, M., and Xu, Z. (2018). Solving Systems of Quadratic Equations via Exponential-type Gradient Descent Algorithm. arXiv."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.2307\/3798365","article-title":"Aging European wild hogs by dentition","volume":"31","author":"Matschke","year":"1967","journal-title":"J. Wildl. Manag."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"ENETWILD Consortium, Acevedo, P., Croft, S., Smith, G., Blanco-Aguiar, J.A., Fernandez-Lopez, J., Scandura, M., Apollonio, M., Ferroglio, E., and Keuling, O. (2020). Update of occurrence and hunting yield-based data models for wild boar at European scale: New approach to handle the bioregion effect. EFSA J., 17, EN-1871.","DOI":"10.2903\/sp.efsa.2020.EN-1871"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105358","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2021.105358","article-title":"Mechanistic modelling of African swine fever: A systematic review","volume":"191","author":"Hayes","year":"2021","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_51","unstructured":"Vynnycky, E., and White, R. (2010). An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling, OUP Oxford."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"647439","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2021.647439","article-title":"How to Strengthen Wildlife Surveillance to Support Freedom from Disease: Example of ASF Surveillance in France, at the Border with an Infected Area","volume":"8","author":"Desvaux","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front. Vet. Sci."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.29.1.207","article-title":"and Alexander, L.E. Roads and their major ecological effects","volume":"29","author":"Forman","year":"1998","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst."},{"key":"ref_54","unstructured":"Forman, R.T.T., Sperling, D., Bissonette, J.A., Clevenger, A.P., Cutshall, C.D., Dale, V.H., Fahrig, L., France, R., Goldman, C.R., and Heanue, K. (2003). Road Ecology: Science and Solutions, Island Press."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2000.99084.x","article-title":"Review of ecological effects of roads on terrestrial and aquatic communities","volume":"14","author":"Trombulak","year":"2000","journal-title":"Conserv. Biol."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Forman, R.T.T. (1995). Land Mosaics. The Ecology of Landscapes and Regions, Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/9781107050327"},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Harris, L.D. (1984). The Fragmented Forest: Island Biogeography Theory and the Preservation Ofbiotic Diversity, University of Chicago Press.","DOI":"10.7208\/chicago\/9780226219950.001.0001"},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hanski, I. (1999). Metapopulation Ecology, Oxford University Press.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198540663.001.0001"},{"key":"ref_59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1051\/vetres:2004050","article-title":"Long-term monitoring of classical swine fever in wild boar (Sus scrofa sp.) using serological data","volume":"36","author":"Rossi","year":"2005","journal-title":"Vet. Res."},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105750","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2022.105750","article-title":"Effects of habitat fragmentation and hunting activities on African swine fever dynamics among wild boar populations","volume":"208","author":"Salazar","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."}],"container-title":["Viruses"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/14\/10\/2240\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T00:52:52Z","timestamp":1760143972000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/14\/10\/2240"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,12]]},"references-count":60,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10]]}},"alternative-id":["v14102240"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/v14102240","relation":{},"ISSN":["1999-4915"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1999-4915","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,12]]}}}