{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T21:03:49Z","timestamp":1790629429537,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,21]],"date-time":"2025-08-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1755734400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Canadian Institutes for Health Research","award":["PJT-148876"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PJT-148876"]}]},{"name":"Mathematical Modeling and Program Science","award":["PJT-148876"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PJT-148876"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: Major geopolitical events and structural shocks are thought to play a significant role in shaping HIV epidemics by influencing individual behaviours, reshaping social networks, and impacting HIV prevention and treatment programs. Here, we describe individual-level measures of estimated time since HIV infection (ETI) from viral next-generation sequencing data among female sex workers and their clients in relation to significant geopolitical events in Ukraine. Methods: The Dynamics Study is a cross-sectional integrated biological and behavioural survey conducted among female sex workers and their clients in Dnipro, Ukraine (December 2017 to March 2018). We were able to successfully sequence a portion of the HIV pol gene on dried blood spot specimens among n = 5\/9 clients and n = 5\/16 female sex workers who tested positive for HIV (total n = 10\/25) using an in-house drug resistance genotyping assay. The \u201cHIV EVO\u201d Intrapatient HIV Evolution web-based tool was used to infer ETI from viral diversity. Results: The median ETIs for female sex workers and their clients were 5.4 years (IQR = 2.9, 6.6) and 6.5 years (IQR = 5.4, 10.8), respectively. Nearly all HIV acquisition events (n = 7\/10; 70%) were estimated to have occurred between the Great Recession (2008\u20132009) and the War in Donbas (May 2014\u2013February 2022). In general, ETI suggests that HIV acquisition occurred earlier among clients (2012 [IQR = 2007, 2013]) compared to sex workers (2013 [IQR = 2012, 2016]). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that most HIV acquisition in this small subset of female sex workers and clients living with HIV occurred during periods of economic decline. Molecular studies on timing of HIV acquisition against timing of major geopolitical events offer a novel way to contextualize how such events may shape transmission patterns.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v17081148","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,21]],"date-time":"2025-08-21T15:19:02Z","timestamp":1755789542000},"page":"1148","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["\u201cBig Events\u201d and HIV Transmission Dynamics: Estimating Time Since HIV Infection from Deep Sequencing Data Among Sex Workers and Their Clients in Dnipro, Ukraine"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8706-8128","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fran\u00e7ois","family":"Cholette","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Sexually Transmitted and Blood-Borne Infection Laboratory, National Microbiology Laboratory at the J.C. Wilt Infectious Diseases Research Centre, Public Health Agency of Canada, 745 Logan Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3L5, Canada"},{"name":"Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0J9, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7561-0589","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicole","family":"Herpai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Community and Global Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0W3, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0183-2768","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Leigh M.","family":"McClarty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Community and Global Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0W3, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olga","family":"Balakireva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Economics and Forecasting, Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine"},{"name":"Ukrainian Institute for Social Research after Oleksandr Yaremenko, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1461-9616","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daryna","family":"Pavlova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ukrainian Institute for Social Research after Oleksandr Yaremenko, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Lopatenko","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Medical Centre of Socially Significant Diseases, 49051 Dnipro, Ukraine"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rupert","family":"Capi\u00f1a","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Sexually Transmitted and Blood-Borne Infection Laboratory, National Microbiology Laboratory at the J.C. Wilt Infectious Diseases Research Centre, Public Health Agency of Canada, 745 Logan Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3L5, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul","family":"Sandstrom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Sexually Transmitted and Blood-Borne Infection Laboratory, National Microbiology Laboratory at the J.C. Wilt Infectious Diseases Research Centre, Public Health Agency of Canada, 745 Logan Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 3L5, Canada"},{"name":"Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0J9, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Pickles","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W12 0BZ, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Evelyn","family":"Forget","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Community and Global Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0W3, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8492-5470","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sharmistha","family":"Mishra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael\u2019s Hospital, Toronto, ON M5B 1A6, Canada"},{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3H2, Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3H2, Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M6, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marissa L.","family":"Becker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0J9, Canada"},{"name":"College of Community and Global Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0W3, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"on behalf of the Dynamics Study Team","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i37","DOI":"10.1136\/sti.2008.031195","article-title":"The Most Severe HIV Epidemic in Europe: Ukraine\u2019s National HIV Prevalence Estimates for 2007","volume":"84","author":"Kruglov","year":"2008","journal-title":"Sex. 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