{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T23:57:11Z","timestamp":1792195031478,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":177,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]],"date-time":"2025-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756598400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Indoam\u00e9rica, \u201cProyecto Semilla 2026\u201d"},{"name":"institutional open access publication fund"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: Ecuador presents a unique epidemiological laboratory for studying arboviral dynamics due to its diverse ecological zones and exposure to climatic variability. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive 36-year analysis (1988\u20132024) of dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) using national surveillance data from Ecuador\u2019s Ministry of Public Health. Statistical analyses included time series decomposition, change-point detection, correlation analysis, and climate association studies. Results: Ecuador reported 387,543 arboviral cases, with dengue comprising 91.3% (353,782 cases). Dengue exhibited endemic\u2013epidemic cycles with major peaks during El Ni\u00f1o events (1994: 10,247 cases; 2000: 22,937 cases; 2015: 42,483 cases; 2024: 23,156 cases through week 26). CHIKV emerged explosively in 2015 (29,124 cases, incidence 181.10 per 100,000), followed by ZIKV in 2016 (2947 cases). Both showed rapid decline post-epidemic. Severe dengue cases paradoxically decreased from 2\u20134% of total cases in early 2000s to &lt;0.1% post-2016, suggesting immunological modulation. Cross-correlation analysis revealed significant associations between climatic indices and epidemic timing (r=0.67, p&lt;0.001), particularly for the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation. Conclusions: Arboviral diseases in Ecuador function as an integrated epidemiological system with evidence of viral interactions, cross-protective immunity, and strong climate forcing. These findings emphasize the need for integrated surveillance and adaptive control strategies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v17091201","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,1]],"date-time":"2025-09-01T08:28:15Z","timestamp":1756715295000},"page":"1201","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Time Series Analysis of Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya in Ecuador: Emergence Patterns, Epidemiological Interactions, and Climate-Driven Dynamics (1988\u20132024)"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4571-1618","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Daniel","family":"S\u00e1nchez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud y Bienestar Humano, Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Indoam\u00e9rica, Av. Machala y Sabanilla, Quito EC170301, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carolina","family":"\u00c1lvarez Ram\u00edrez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud y Bienestar Humano, Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Indoam\u00e9rica, Av. Machala y Sabanilla, Quito EC170301, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emilio","family":"Cevallos Carrillo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud y Bienestar Humano, Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Indoam\u00e9rica, Av. Machala y Sabanilla, Quito EC170301, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Juan","family":"Arias Salazar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud y Bienestar Humano, Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Indoam\u00e9rica, Av. Machala y Sabanilla, Quito EC170301, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C\u00e9sar","family":"Barros Cevallos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud y Bienestar Humano, Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Indoam\u00e9rica, Av. Machala y Sabanilla, Quito EC170301, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1508","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0476-8","article-title":"The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue","volume":"4","author":"Messina","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. 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