{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,14]],"date-time":"2026-09-14T14:22:03Z","timestamp":1789395723086,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":72,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,31]],"date-time":"2025-10-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761868800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"International Coordination of Research on Infectious Animal Diseases, ICRAD","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["862605"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["862605"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Ministry of Agriculture","award":["AKGF\/100\/2022"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["AKGF\/100\/2022"]}]},{"name":"Ministry of Agriculture","award":["AGMF\/93\/2023"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["AGMF\/93\/2023"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005632","name":"National Centre for Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["ICRAD\/I\/CAE-RAPID\/02\/2021"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ICRAD\/I\/CAE-RAPID\/02\/2021"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005632","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100019436","name":"Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Lithuania","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["TM-21-1\/2021-PRO-00041"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["TM-21-1\/2021-PRO-00041"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100019436","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005416","name":"Research Council of Norway","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["322837"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["322837"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005416","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Swiss Confederation, Federal Department of Home Affairs, Federal Food Safety and Veterinary Office","award":["1.21.13"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1.21.13"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: Caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE) is a major viral disease of goats, caused by small ruminant lentivirus (SRLV), associated with chronic arthritis, mastitis, pneumonia, and encephalitis, leading to economic losses and reduced animal welfare. This study aimed to estimate the true prevalence of CAE in Hungarian goat herds, based on nationwide sampling and statistical modeling. Methods: Blood samples from 1218 goats in 53 herds were tested using ELISA, and true prevalence was estimated by Bayesian analysis. Results: The mean herd true prevalence (HTP) was 29.1% (95% CrI: 20.8\u201338.5%), while within the infected herds, the conditional within herd prevalence (CWHP) reached 58% \u00b1 27.1%. Medium- and large-sized herds (&gt;50 animals) showed the highest mean HTP (77.8% and 74.9%, respectively). No significant regional differences were observed, indicating that CAE is uniformly distributed across the country. Conclusions: Our findings place Hungary among moderately to highly affected European countries and highlight the need for a nationwide control strategy integrating routine serological surveillance, biosecurity improvements, farmer education, and long-term tools such as selective breeding.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v17111455","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,3]],"date-time":"2025-11-03T13:47:58Z","timestamp":1762177678000},"page":"1455","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence of Caprine Arthritis Encephalitis in Hungarian Goat Herds"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-1571-8973","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Krisztina","family":"B\u00e1rdos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Forensics and Economics, Institute of Economics and Biostatistics, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"},{"name":"National Laboratory of Infectious Animal Diseases, Antimicrobial Resistance, Veterinary Public Health and Food Chain Safety, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-3192-2653","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marietta","family":"M\u00e1t\u00e9","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Forensics and Economics, Institute of Economics and Biostatistics, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"},{"name":"National Laboratory of Infectious Animal Diseases, Antimicrobial Resistance, Veterinary Public Health and Food Chain Safety, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katalin","family":"Veres","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Economics and Biostatistics, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0773-662X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zsolt","family":"Lang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Economics and Biostatistics, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1469-4723","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Giuseppe","family":"Bertoni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Virology and Immunology, Department of Infectious Diseases and Pathobiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Laenggass-Str. 122, 3012 Bern, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carlos Eduardo","family":"Abril","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Virology and Immunology, Department of Infectious Diseases and Pathobiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Laenggass-Str. 122, 3012 Bern, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Snorre","family":"Stuen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Production Animal Clinical Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Svebastadveien 112, 4325 Sandnes, Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Saulius","family":"Petkevi\u010dius","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, Veterinary Academy, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilzes Str. 18, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9747-6803","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marcin","family":"Mickiewicz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Institute of Veterinary Medicine, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159c, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Micha\u0142","family":"Czopowicz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Institute of Veterinary Medicine, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159c, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7977-9875","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jaros\u0142aw","family":"Kaba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Institute of Veterinary Medicine, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159c, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5568-7319","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"L\u00e1szl\u00f3","family":"\u00d3zsv\u00e1ri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Forensics and Economics, Institute of Economics and Biostatistics, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"},{"name":"National Laboratory of Infectious Animal Diseases, Antimicrobial Resistance, Veterinary Public Health and Food Chain Safety, University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Istv\u00e1n u. 2, 1078 Budapest, Hungary"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3311","DOI":"10.3390\/v6083311","article-title":"Immunogenetics 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