{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T11:36:22Z","timestamp":1785411382557,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]],"date-time":"2026-04-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776729600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000199","name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture\u2019s National Institute of Food and Agriculture","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2022-69014-37041"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022-69014-37041"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000199","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"award":["2022-69014-37041"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022-69014-37041"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05qx3fv49","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100011633","name":"Vermont Agricultural Experiment Station","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["VT-HO1601"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VT-HO1601"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100011633","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses a significant threat to the United States dairy industry. This study evaluates the effectiveness of regional zoning, enhanced detection, and biosecurity in controlling FMD spread, focusing on the New England milkshed, using the InterSpread Plus (ISP+) model. We adapted a baseline ISP+ configuration incorporating United States dairy farm data, movement networks, cattle dealers, markets, and slaughterhouses, with milk processing plants as a model addition. Four hypotheses were tested to understand the impact of different biosecurity strategies: (H1) regional zoning limits the interregional spread of FMD post-detection; (H2) earlier detection in New England via increased passive surveillance reduces the overall outbreak impact; (H3) reduced indirect transmission through enhanced biosecurity measures improves FMD outbreak control; (H4) the combination of regional zoning and earlier detection provides synergistic reduction in FMD impact beyond either strategy alone. The four hypotheses were tested using three geographically distinct infection seed sets; 100 iterations of each scenario were simulated over 210 days and compared to the baseline. Key impact metrics included the daily number of infected premises, the outbreak duration, and the total number of infected premises across the outbreak scenarios. Results suggest shorter outbreak durations and reduced total infected premises under the hypothesized scenarios, compared to the baseline scenario. Kruskal\u2013Wallis H tests confirmed significant differences across the baseline, regional zoning, early detection, enhanced biosecurity, and the combination of heightened passive surveillance with regional zoning scenarios in terms of total infected premises. Post hoc Dunn\u2019s tests indicated that enhanced biosecurity outperformed other control strategies tested. These findings demonstrate that layered interventions may substantially curtail both the national amplification and local spread of FMD, and thus protect the consumer milk supply and reduce cascading economic shocks from an outbreak.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v18040480","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]],"date-time":"2026-04-21T11:42:45Z","timestamp":1776771765000},"page":"480","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Testing Control Strategies for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in New England Using the InterSpread Plus Model: Impacts of Regional Zoning, Early Detection, and Enhanced Biosecurity"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-8183-7971","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Johnbosco U.","family":"Osuagwu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5476-5899","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Julia M.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5574-9703","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Scott C.","family":"Merrill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Agriculture, Landscape, and Environment, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"King, D.P., McLaws, M., Mapitse, N.J., and Paton, D.J. (2024). Are the Knowledge, Tools and Resources to Control Foot and Mouth Disease Available?. Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE, 24\u201335.","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.SE.3555"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coviro.2017.11.013","article-title":"Understanding the Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus at Different Scales","volume":"28","author":"Paton","year":"2018","journal-title":"Curr. Opin. Virol."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02250825","article-title":"Development of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Strain Characterisation\u2014A Review","volume":"21","author":"Kitching","year":"1989","journal-title":"Trop. Anim. Health Prod."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"731","DOI":"10.1136\/vr.145.25.731","article-title":"Epidemiological Characteristics and Financial Costs of the 1997 Foot-and-mouth Disease Epidemic in Taiwan","volume":"145","author":"Yang","year":"1999","journal-title":"Vet. Rec."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"741","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.35.3.2565","article-title":"VP1 Sequencing Protocol for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus Molecular Epidemiology","volume":"35","author":"Knowles","year":"2016","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"459","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.21.3.1347","article-title":"Recent Outbreaks of Foot and Mouth Disease in Countries of East Asia","volume":"21","author":"Sakamoto","year":"2002","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brown, E., Nelson, N., Gubbins, S., and Colenutt, C. (2022). Airborne Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus: A Review of Past and Present Perspectives. Viruses, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/v14051009"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1121","DOI":"10.2460\/ajvr.2001.62.1121","article-title":"Direct and Indirect Contact Rates among Beef, Dairy, Goat, Sheep, and Swine Herds in Three California Counties, with Reference to Control of Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Transmission","volume":"62","author":"Bates","year":"2001","journal-title":"Am. J. Vet. Res."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virol.2018.01.008","article-title":"A Partial Deletion within Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Non-Structural Protein 3A Causes Clinical Attenuation in Cattle but Does Not Prevent Subclinical Infection","volume":"516","author":"Stenfeldt","year":"2018","journal-title":"Virology"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mahy, B.W.J. (2005). Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Host Range and Pathogenesis. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/b138628"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"291","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1865-1682.2011.01204.x","article-title":"The Pathogenesis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease I: Viral Pathways in Cattle","volume":"58","author":"Arzt","year":"2011","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chumsang, P., Singhla, T., and Chaisowwong, W. (2025). Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach. Vet. Sci., 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/vetsci12070623"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2013.07.013","article-title":"The Economic Impacts of Foot and Mouth Disease\u2014What Are They, How Big Are They and Where Do They Occur?","volume":"112","author":"Rushton","year":"2013","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chanchaidechachai, T., Saatkamp, H., Inchaisri, C., and Hogeveen, H. (2022). Analysis of Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Four District Areas in Thailand. Front. Vet. Sci., 9.","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2022.904630"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"777","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.31.3.2154","article-title":"Probability of Introducing Foot and Mouth Disease into the United States via Live Animal Importation","volume":"31","author":"Miller","year":"2012","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.25.1.1651","article-title":"Quantitative Risk Assessment Case Study: Smuggled Meats as Disease Vectors","volume":"25","author":"Wooldridge","year":"2006","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1177\/0300985809354351","article-title":"Emerging Diseases","volume":"47","author":"Brown","year":"2010","journal-title":"Vet. Pathol."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"895","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.34.3.2404","article-title":"Epidemic Simulation of a Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak in Minnesota","volume":"34","author":"Gale","year":"2015","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"729","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.34.3.2392","article-title":"Emergency Vaccination Use in a Modelled Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak in Minnesota","volume":"34","author":"Miller","year":"2015","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Njuki, E. (2022). Sources, Trends, and Drivers of U.S. Dairy Productivity and Efficiency."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"831","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.39.3.3181","article-title":"Development of an Evaluation Framework and Assessment Tools to Assess the Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Control Policies and Their Implementation in the Proposed FMD-Free Zone in Thailand","volume":"39","author":"Ketusing","year":"2020","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"789","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.30.3.2078","article-title":"Triggers for Foot and Mouth Disease Vaccination in the United States","volume":"30","author":"Parent","year":"2011","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.1136\/vr.e4180","article-title":"Progressive Control of FMD on a Global Scale","volume":"170","author":"Sumption","year":"2012","journal-title":"Vet. Rec."},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"Sakamoto, K. (2011). Epidemiological Developments and Control of FMD in Asia, OIE. Commission R\u00e9gionale Asie-Extr\u00eame Orient-Oc\u00e9anie. Available online: https:\/\/doc.woah.org\/dyn\/portal\/index.xhtml?page=alo&aloId=24228&espaceId=100."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"800","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.16.3.1066","article-title":"Risk Assessment and Risk Regionalisation, Based on the Surveillance System for Foot and Mouth Disease in South America","volume":"16","author":"Astudillo","year":"1997","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3198","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.14769","article-title":"A Scoping Review of Foot-and-mouth Disease Risk, Based on Spatial and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Outbreaks in Endemic Settings","volume":"69","author":"Gordon","year":"2022","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. Dis."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"176","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2007.05.019","article-title":"The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: A Simulation Model to Assist Decision Making in Evaluating Animal Disease Incursions","volume":"82","author":"Harvey","year":"2007","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2012.08.015","article-title":"InterSpread Plus: A Spatial and Stochastic Simulation Model of Disease in Animal Populations","volume":"109","author":"Stevenson","year":"2013","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1136\/vr.149.5.137","article-title":"Predictive Spatial Modelling of Alternative Control Strategies for the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Great Britain, 2001","volume":"149","author":"Morris","year":"2001","journal-title":"Vet. Rec."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Horwitz, R.P. (2025, September 11). Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) as a Hazard for New England Dairies, Available online: https:\/\/nesaasa.weebly.com\/uploads\/1\/2\/7\/3\/12737832\/fmd_as_a_hazard_for_ne_dairies.pdf."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Horwitz, R.P. (2025, September 11). New England as a Jurisdiction for Supporting Continuity of Dairy Operations: A Reassessment, Available online: https:\/\/nesaasa.weebly.com\/uploads\/1\/2\/7\/3\/12737832\/ne_as_a_jurisdiction.pdf."},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"123","article-title":"The Effect of the Northeast Dairy Compact on Producers and Consumers, with Implications of Compact Contagion","volume":"25","author":"Balagtas","year":"2003","journal-title":"Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Burdett, C.L., Kraus, B.R., Garza, S.J., Miller, R.S., and Bjork, K.E. (2015). Simulating the Distribution of Individual Livestock Farms and Their Populations in the United States: An Example Using Domestic Swine (Susscrofa domesticus) Farms. PLoS ONE, 10.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0140338"},{"key":"ref_34","unstructured":"United States Department of Agriculture (2025, September 11). USDA\u2014National Agricultural Statistics Service\u2014Charts and Maps\u2014Milk Cows and Milk Production, Available online: https:\/\/www.nass.usda.gov\/Charts_and_Maps\/Milk_Production_and_Milk_Cows\/index.php."},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"United States Department of Agriculture (2025, September 11). FSIS Inspected Establishments|Food Safety and Inspection Service, Available online: https:\/\/www.fsis.usda.gov\/inspection\/fsis-inspected-establishments."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"United States Department of Agriculture (2025, September 11). Milk Marketing Order Statistics|Agricultural Marketing Service, Available online: https:\/\/www.ams.usda.gov\/resources\/marketing-order-statistics."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"United States Department of Agriculture (2025, September 24). Health and Management Practices on U.S. Dairy Operations, 2014, Available online: https:\/\/www.aphis.usda.gov\/node\/5409."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1051\/vetres\/2010017","article-title":"Parameterization of the Duration of Infection Stages of Serotype O Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus: An Analytical Review and Meta-Analysis with Application to Simulation Models","volume":"41","author":"Mardones","year":"2010","journal-title":"Vet. Res."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mielke, S.R., Rigney, C., Hagerman, A.D., Boyer, T.C., Delgado, A.H., Arzt, J., and Holmstrom, L.K. (2023). Assessment of a Reconfiguration of the InterSpread Plus US National FMD Model as a Potential Tool to Analyze a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak on a Single Large Cattle Feedlot in the United States. Front. Vet. Sci., 10.","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2023.1205485"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.2460\/ajvr.2003.64.195","article-title":"Description of an Epidemic Simulation Model for Use in Evaluating Strategies to Control an Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease","volume":"64","author":"Bates","year":"2003","journal-title":"Am. J. Vet. Res."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1066","DOI":"10.2460\/javma.244.9.1066","article-title":"Direct and Indirect Contact Rates among Livestock Operations in Colorado and Kansas","volume":"244","author":"McReynolds","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Am. Vet. Med. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_42","first-page":"681","article-title":"Quantifying Local Spread Probabilities for Foot-and-Mouth Disease","volume":"Volume 11","author":"Sanson","year":"2006","journal-title":"Proceedings of the 11th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Cairns, Australia, 6 August 2006"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2018.10.016","article-title":"Temporal and Geographic Distribution of Weather Conditions Favorable to Airborne Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the Coterminous United States","volume":"161","author":"Hagerman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Prev. Vet. Med."},{"key":"ref_44","unstructured":"United States Department of Agriculture (2025, September 11). USDA APHIS FMD Response Plan: The Red Book, Available online: https:\/\/www.aphis.usda.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/fmd_responseplan.pdf."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1952.10483441","article-title":"Use of Ranks in One-Criterion Variance Analysis","volume":"47","author":"Kruskal","year":"1952","journal-title":"J. Am. Stat. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1961.10482090","article-title":"Multiple Comparisons Among Means","volume":"56","author":"Dunn","year":"1961","journal-title":"J. Am. Stat. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"Seabold, S., and Perktold, J. (July, January 28). Statsmodels: Econometric and Statistical Modeling with Python. Proceedings of the 9th Python in Science Conference, Austin, TX, USA."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"834","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-019-0356-5","article-title":"The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections","volume":"2","author":"Tildesley","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bradhurst, R.A., Roche, S.E., East, I.J., Kwan, P., and Garner, M.G. (2015). A Hybrid Modeling Approach to Simulating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Australian Livestock. Front. Environ. Sci., 3.","DOI":"10.3389\/fenvs.2015.00017"},{"key":"ref_50","unstructured":"(2025, September 11). National Milk Producers Federation Secure Milk Supply Plan: Enhanced Biosecurity for H5N1. Available online: https:\/\/www.nmpf.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/NMPF-AABP-SMS-Enhanced-Biosecurity-H5N1-1.1.pdf."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"802","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268816002697","article-title":"Active Animal Health Surveillance in European Union Member States: Gaps and Opportunities","volume":"145","author":"Bisdorff","year":"2017","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."}],"container-title":["Viruses"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/18\/4\/480\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,23]],"date-time":"2026-04-23T04:24:48Z","timestamp":1776918288000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/18\/4\/480"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]}},"alternative-id":["v18040480"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/v18040480","relation":{},"ISSN":["1999-4915"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1999-4915","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]]}}}