{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T10:25:17Z","timestamp":1787307917389,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787270400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Prevention and Control of Emerging and Major Infectious Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project","award":["2025ZD01900202"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025ZD01900202"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Chikungunya is undergoing global expansion, but how El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences its transmission remains unclear. We aim to assess the impact of ENSO phases on chikungunya incidence via temperature and precipitation teleconnections and to project future risk burden under climate change. We compiled annual national and subnational chikungunya case data (2008\u20132024), quantified ENSO\u2013climate teleconnections using the E-index (eastern Pacific El Ni\u00f1o) and C-index (central Pacific La Ni\u00f1a), and applied distributed-lag time-series models to assess the teleconnection-mediated impact of ENSO on chikungunya incidence. We further projected future risk burden under climate change scenarios. Modelling shows that El Ni\u00f1o increased chikungunya risk after a 2-year lag (cumulative relative risk [CRR] = 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02\u20131.85), while La Ni\u00f1a suppressed it (CRR = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.07\u20130.13). Temperature teleconnections were the dominant modifier of spatial heterogeneity in effects. Under all scenarios, El Ni\u00f1o-driven warming led to positive median excess cases, the highest under SSP2-4.5, whereas La Ni\u00f1a-driven changes projected smaller, highly uncertain reductions. ENSO influences chikungunya transmission through asymmetric and spatially heterogeneous teleconnection pathways. Integrating ENSO forecasts into surveillance efforts has the potential to enhance preparedness in climate-sensitive regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v18080918","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T09:31:59Z","timestamp":1787304719000},"page":"918","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["ENSO Impact on Global Chikungunya Virus Transmission, 2008\u20132024: A Multi-Country Distributed-Lag Time-Series Analysis"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Shi-Hui","family":"Shan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing 100071, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Long-Tao","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing 100071, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wen-Qi","family":"Xie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chen-Long","family":"Lv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing 100071, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4154-5969","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dong","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fang-Yu","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gang","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing 100071, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4981-1483","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Li-Qun","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing 100071, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.antiviral.2015.04.016","article-title":"Chikungunya: Evolutionary history and recent epidemic spread","volume":"120","author":"Weaver","year":"2015","journal-title":"Antivir. 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