{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T13:20:01Z","timestamp":1788268801231,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787875200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Union\u2014Next Generation EU","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["H93C22000640007"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["H93C22000640007"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Union\u2014Next Generation EU","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PE_0000007"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PE_0000007"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"award":["H93C22000640007"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["H93C22000640007"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/019w4f821","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"award":["PE_0000007"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PE_0000007"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/019w4f821","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Viruses"],"abstract":"<jats:p>West Nile virus (WNV) transmission has intensified and expanded in Italy, but quantitative evidence on how local climatic and environmental conditions influence human risk in southern regions remains limited. This study examined the association between meteorological, environmental, and host-related factors and West Nile virus (WNV) cases at the municipal level in Apulia in 2023. Human WNV cases were georeferenced at the municipal level and linked to monthly indicators (minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, surface water extent, green area coverage, land-use change, avian occurrence). A Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson model with a conditional autoregressive structure was fitted to monthly counts of human WNV cases, with equine WNV cases, climatic, environmental and avian indicators included as covariates. Eight human WNV cases were reported between August and October and four equine WNV cases between September and November, with partial spatial and temporal overlap. In univariable analyses, the strongest associations were observed for meteorological variables, particularly temperature. In the final multivariable model, higher maximum temperature at a two-month lag was associated with increased WNV risk (RR = 1.53; 95% CrI: 1.18\u20132.23), while minimum temperature was excluded due to collinearity with maximum temperature. Green area coverage and water body extent showed uncertain effects. Model-based maps indicated that elevated fitted risk was concentrated in a narrow temporal window between August and October, expanding sharply across the region in September before receding, rather than describing a stable, spatially fixed hotspot. This exploratory analysis suggests that reported human WNV infections in Apulia in 2023 were temporally concentrated during the late summer\/early autumn period and that maximum temperature at a two-month lag was positively associated with the outcome in the selected model. The findings are hypothesis-generating and should be interpreted with caution given the very small number of events, but they illustrate the feasibility of integrating multisource epidemiological, climatic, environmental, and veterinary data to support locally tailored early-warning efforts in southern Italy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/v18090943","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T12:41:18Z","timestamp":1788266478000},"page":"943","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Exploratory Associations Between Climatic, Environmental, and Surveillance Indicators and Human West Nile Virus Infections in Apulia: A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2058-9284","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Letizia","family":"Lorusso","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Precision and Regenerative Medicine\u2014(DiMePRe-J), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"methodology","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"software","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"validation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"formal-analysis","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-original-draft","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"visualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-9725-2194","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Niccol\u00f2","family":"Maldera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"methodology","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"software","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"validation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8540-4615","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicola","family":"Bartolomeo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3018-5408","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francesca","family":"Centrone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Public Health, AOUC Policlinico di Bari, 70124 Bari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1043-1256","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria","family":"Chironna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"resources","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7102-9108","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paolo","family":"Trerotoli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 70124 Bari, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"methodology","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"software","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"validation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"formal-analysis","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"resources","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"visualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"project-administration","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"funding-acquisition","vocabulary":"credit"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2026, April 08). Vector-Borne Diseases. Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/vector-borne-diseases."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2200653","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.36.2200653","article-title":"Rapid increase in neuroinvasive West Nile virus infections in humans, Italy, July 2022","volume":"27","author":"Riccardo","year":"2022","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2026, April 08). Culex pipiens\u2014Factsheet for Experts. Available online: https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/infectious-disease-topics\/related-public-health-topics\/disease-vectors\/facts\/mosquito-factsheets\/culex-pipiens."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2026, April 08). West Nile Virus. Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/west-nile-virus."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19547","DOI":"10.2807\/ese.15.16.19547-en","article-title":"West Nile virus circulation in Emilia-Romagna, Italy: The integrated surveillance system 2009","volume":"15","author":"Angelini","year":"2010","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19289","DOI":"10.2807\/ese.14.31.19289-en","article-title":"West Nile virus infection in Veneto region, Italy, 2008\u20132009","volume":"14","author":"Barzon","year":"2009","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lorenzon, A., Granata, M., Verzelloni, P., Tommasi, L., Palandri, L., Malavolti, M., Bargellini, A., Righi, E., Vinceti, M., and Paduano, S. (2025). Effect of climate change on West Nile virus transmission in Italy: A systematic review. Public Health Rev., 46.","DOI":"10.3389\/phrs.2025.1607444"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"777","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-023-02676-0","article-title":"Monitoring the West Nile virus outbreaks in Italy using open access data","volume":"10","author":"Mingione","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.2746\/042516400777612080","article-title":"Clinical and neuropathological features of West Nile virus equine encephalomyelitis in Italy","volume":"32","author":"Cantile","year":"2000","journal-title":"Equine Vet. J."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19002","DOI":"10.2807\/ese.13.41.19002-en","article-title":"First human case of West Nile virus neuroinvasive infection in Italy, September 2008\u2014Case report","volume":"13","author":"Rossini","year":"2008","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"ref_11","unstructured":"(2026, April 08). Permanent Conference for Relations Between the State, the Regions and the Autonomous Provinces of Trento and Bolzano. Record of Act No. 1\/CSR. Available online: https:\/\/www.statoregioni.it\/it\/conferenza-stato-regioni\/sedute-2020\/seduta-del-15012020\/atti\/repertorio-atto-n-1-csr\/."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1861","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-025-06129-8","article-title":"Standardized incidence ratio dataset of human West Nile virus in Italy (2012\u20132024)","volume":"12","author":"Fania","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Loconsole, D., Centrone, F., Sallustio, A., Casulli, D., Colella, V., Mongelli, O., Venturi, G., Bella, A., Marino, L., and Martinelli, D. (2024). Abrupt increase in detection of locally acquired West-Nile-virus-lineage-2-mediated neuroinvasive disease in a previously non-endemic area of Southern Italy (2023). Viruses, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/v16010053"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"513","DOI":"10.1007\/s11252-012-0248-1","article-title":"The roles of mosquito and bird communities on the prevalence of West Nile virus in urban wetland and residential habitats","volume":"15","author":"Johnson","year":"2012","journal-title":"Urban Ecosyst."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Heidecke, J., Schettini, A.L., and Rockl\u00f6v, J. (2023). West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change. PLoS Clim., 2.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pclm.0000129"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-024-01207-2","article-title":"Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: A scoping review","volume":"13","author":"Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Poverty"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Adelman, J.S., Tokarz, R.E., Euken, A.E., Field, E.N., Russell, M.C., and Smith, R.C. (2022). Relative influence of land use, mosquito abundance, and bird communities in defining West Nile virus infection rates in Culex mosquito populations. Insects, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/insects13090758"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1890\/15-0050","article-title":"Cascade of ecological consequences for West Nile virus transmission when aquatic macrophytes invade stormwater habitats","volume":"26","author":"Mackay","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e58511","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.58511","article-title":"Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23 \u00b0C and 26 \u00b0C","volume":"9","author":"Shocket","year":"2020","journal-title":"eLife"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Frox\u00e1n-Grabalosa, J., Mariani, S., Cerecedo-Iglesias, C., Richter-Boix, A., Torner, A.O., Pla, M., Brotons, L., and Bartumeus, F. (2025). Ecological drivers of arboviral disease risk: Vector-host interfaces in a Mediterranean wetland of Northeastern Spain. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 19.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013447"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"156","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-024-06239-z","article-title":"Landscape level associations between birds, mosquitoes and microclimates: Possible consequences for disease transmission?","volume":"17","author":"Krol","year":"2024","journal-title":"Parasit. Vectors"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"McCarter, M.S.J., Self, S., Dye-Braumuller, K.C., Lee, C., Li, H., and Nolan, M.S. (2023). The utility of a Bayesian predictive model to forecast neuroinvasive West Nile virus disease in the United States of America, 2022. PLoS ONE, 18.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0290873"},{"key":"ref_23","first-page":"1175","article-title":"A parsimonious Bayesian predictive model for forecasting new reported cases of West Nile disease","volume":"9","author":"Hosseini","year":"2024","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Model."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106296","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2024.106296","article-title":"Modelling the temperature dependent extrinsic incubation period of West Nile virus using Bayesian time delay models","volume":"89","author":"Vollans","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Infect."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-015-0831-4","article-title":"Understanding West Nile virus ecology in Europe: Culex pipiens host feeding preference in a hotspot of virus emergence","volume":"8","author":"Rizzoli","year":"2015","journal-title":"Parasit. Vectors"},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie (2026, June 23). West Nile Virus: Integrated One Health Surveillance Is Effective in Endemic Regions. Available online: https:\/\/www.izsvenezie.it\/west-nile-sorveglianza-integrata-one-health-efficace\/."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie (2026, April 08). West Nile: Which Wild Birds Should Be Monitored for Virus Surveillance?. Available online: https:\/\/www.izsvenezie.it\/west-nile-uccelli-selvatici-monitorare-sorveglianza-virus\/."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"art158","DOI":"10.1890\/ES14-00256.1","article-title":"Modeling distribution and abundance of multiple species: Different pooling strategies produce similar results","volume":"5","author":"Barker","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ecosphere"},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Chamberlain, S., Barve, V., Mcglinn, D., Oldoni, D., Desmet, P., Geffert, L., and Ram, K. (rgbif: Interface to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility API, 2026). rgbif: Interface to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility API, version 3.8.5."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"GBIF Secretariat (2026, February 02). GBIF Occurrence Download. Available online: https:\/\/www.gbif.org\/."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"EpiCentro (2026, April 08). Surveillance of Human Cases of West Nile Virus Infection. Available online: https:\/\/www.epicentro.iss.it\/westnile\/bollettino."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"(2026, February 23). Arbovirosis Surveillance. Available online: https:\/\/arbo.iss.it\/Default.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2f."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-020-0453-3","article-title":"Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset","volume":"7","author":"Harris","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4302","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086","article-title":"WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"Fick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"(2026, February 23). Copernicus Browser. Available online: https:\/\/browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu\/."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (2026, February 23). Water Bodies 2020\u2013Present (Raster 100 m), Global, Monthly, Version 1. Available online: https:\/\/land.copernicus.eu\/en\/products\/water-bodies\/water-bodies-global-v1-0-100m."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v084.i09","article-title":"Spatio-temporal areal unit modeling in R with conditional autoregressive priors using the CARBayesST package","volume":"84","author":"Lee","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Stat. Softw."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cox, V.M., Tiley, K., Rosa, R., Pugliese, A., Angelini, P., Carrieri, M., Bhatt, S., Tamba, M., Marini, G., and Calzolari, M. (2025). Meteorological and environmental drivers of West Nile virus prevalence in Culex pipiens mosquitoes in Emilia-Romagna, Italy in 2013 to 2022. PLoS Pathog., 21.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1013753"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6440","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-023-42185-7","article-title":"Spatial and temporal dynamics of West Nile virus between Africa and Europe","volume":"14","author":"Mencattelli","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"230","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-4-230","article-title":"Spatio-temporal patterns of distribution of West Nile virus vectors in eastern Piedmont Region, Italy","volume":"4","author":"Bisanzio","year":"2011","journal-title":"Parasit. Vectors"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2818","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.09.397","article-title":"Spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling of West Nile virus: Identifying risk of infection in mosquitoes with local-scale predictors","volume":"650","author":"Myer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Marini, G., Poletti, P., Giacobini, M., Pugliese, A., Merler, S., and Ros\u00e0, R. (2016). The role of climatic and density dependent factors in shaping mosquito population dynamics: The case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy. PLoS ONE, 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0154018"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.1603\/EN13173","article-title":"Weather factors influencing the population dynamics of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Po Plain Valley, Italy (1997\u20132011)","volume":"43","author":"Carrieri","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environ. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Carrieri, M., Albieri, A., Angelini, P., Soracase, M., Dottori, M., Antolini, G., and Bellini, R. (2023). Effects of the weather on the seasonal population trend of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Northern Italy. Insects, 14.","DOI":"10.20944\/preprints202307.0149.v1"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bruno, L., Nappo, M.A., Frontoso, R., Perrotta, M.G., Di Lecce, R., Guarnieri, C., Ferrari, L., and Corradi, A. (2025). West Nile Virus (WNV): One-Health and Eco-Health Global Risks. Vet. Sci., 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/vetsci12030288"}],"container-title":["Viruses"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/18\/9\/943\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T12:43:29Z","timestamp":1788266609000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-4915\/18\/9\/943"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["v18090943"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/v18090943","relation":{},"ISSN":["1999-4915"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1999-4915","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]]}}}