{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T13:42:18Z","timestamp":1787319738503,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,27]],"date-time":"2023-11-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1701043200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Vicerrectorado de Investigaci\u00f3n of the Universidad Nacional Federico Villareal (UNFV)"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Vaccines"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The monkeypox virus (MPXV) has caused an unusual epidemiological scenario\u2014an epidemic within a pandemic (COVID-19). Despite the inherent evolutionary and adaptive capacity of poxviruses, one of the potential triggers for the emergence of this epidemic was the change in the status of orthopoxvirus vaccination and eradication programs. This epidemic outbreak of HMPX spread worldwide, with a notable frequency in Europe, North America, and South America. Due to these particularities, the objective of the present study was to assess and compare cases of HMPX in these geographical regions through logistic and Gompertz mathematical modeling over one year since its inception. We estimated the highest contagion rates (people per day) of 690, 230, 278, and 206 for the world, Europe, North America, and South America, respectively, in the logistic model. The equivalent values for the Gompertz model were 696, 268, 308, and 202 for the highest contagion rates. The Kruskal\u2013Wallis Test indicated different means among the geographical regions affected by HMPX regarding case velocity, and the Wilcoxon pairwise test indicated the absence of significant differences between the case velocity means between Europe and South America. The coefficient of determination (R2) values in the logistic model varied from 0.8720 to 0.9023, and in the Gompertz model, they ranged from 0.9881 to 0.9988, indicating a better fit to the actual data when using the Gompertz model. The estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) were more consistent in the logistic model, varying from 1.71 to 1.94 in the graphical method and from 1.75 to 1.95 in the analytical method. The comparative assessment of these mathematical modeling approaches permitted the establishment of the Gompertz model as the better-fitting model for the data and the logistic model for the R0. However, both models successfully represented the actual HMPX case data. The present study estimated relevant epidemiological data to understand better the geographic similarities and differences in the dynamics of HMPX.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/vaccines11121765","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,27]],"date-time":"2023-11-27T07:56:10Z","timestamp":1701071770000},"page":"1765","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Comparative Epidemiological Assessment of Monkeypox Infections on a Global and Continental Scale Using Logistic and Gompertz Mathematical Models"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2912-1191","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Obert","family":"Mar\u00edn-S\u00e1nchez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento Acad\u00e9mico de Microbiolog\u00eda M\u00e9dica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Carlos Germ\u00e1n Amezaga 375, Lima 15081, Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2370-1419","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro","family":"Pesantes-Grados","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unidad de Posgrado, Facultad de Ciencias Matem\u00e1ticas, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Carlos Germ\u00e1n Amezaga 375, Lima 15081, Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-4142-985X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luis","family":"P\u00e9rez-Timan\u00e1","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Profesional de Gen\u00e9tica y Biotecnolog\u00eda, Facultad de Ciencias Biol\u00f3gicas, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Carlos Germ\u00e1n Amezaga 375, Lima 15081, Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olegario","family":"Mar\u00edn-Machuca","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento Acad\u00e9mico de Ciencias Alimentarias, Facultad de Oceanograf\u00eda, Pesquer\u00eda, Ciencias Alimentarias y Acuicultura, Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal, Calle Roma 350, Miraflores 15074, Peru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0978-5740","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christian J.","family":"S\u00e1nchez-Llatas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Genetics, Physiology, and Microbiology, School of Biology, Complutense University of Madrid (U.C.M.), C. de Jos\u00e9 Antonio Nov\u00e1is, 12, 28040 Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1044-7450","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ruy D.","family":"Chac\u00f3n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pathology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of S\u00e3o Paulo, Av. Prof. Orlando M. Paiva, 87, S\u00e3o Paulo 05508-270, Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1006\/viro.2002.1446","article-title":"Analysis of the Monkeypox Virus Genome","volume":"297","author":"Shchelkunov","year":"2002","journal-title":"Virology"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Silva, N.I.O., de Oliveira, J.S., Kroon, E.G., Trindade, G.d.S., and Drumond, B.P. (2020). Here, There, and Everywhere: The Wide Host Range and Geographic Distribution of Zoonotic Orthopoxviruses. Viruses, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/v13010043"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1007","DOI":"10.1002\/hsr2.1007","article-title":"A Review on Monkeypox Virus Outbreak: New Challenge for World","volume":"6","author":"Ferdous","year":"2023","journal-title":"Health Sci. 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