{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T21:12:59Z","timestamp":1788297179589,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,7]],"date-time":"2025-07-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1751846400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100008441","name":"CYTED program","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["524RT0158"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["524RT0158"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100008441","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"ANID-FONDECYT 1250752","award":["524RT0158"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["524RT0158"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Veterinary Sciences"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study aimed to explore Markov decision methods in order to solve the problem of dairy cow replacement, adding the special characteristics of two types of abortions due to different sanitary reasons that influence the economic, production, and reproduction performance of these animals. The model was successfully validated against other models published in the literature. Python code v.3.13 was used to solve the problem and to ease future extensions with the inclusion of new variables. The results constitute tools that allow the veterinarian to explore more realistic scenarios by running a Markov simulation model that avoids the complexities leading to the problem of dimensionality in dynamic optimization models. In our study, the economic value of the herd considering RA and NLA abortions shows that the maximum net benefit is USD 178.77 per cow, and non-pregnant cows are slaughtered upon reaching six months of lactation, a value that is within the range of values reported by the literature that we have identified. At the optimum, the replacement model extended with abortion generates a difference of USD 0.69 per cow per month compared to the model that does not include the special abortion features. The changes in the net present value of each cow according to the month of culling depend on the variability of milk income and slaughter value and heifers\u2019 replacement values, suggesting that any measure that seeks to improve the economic benefit of dairy cows should take greater account of these variables.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/vetsci12070645","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,7]],"date-time":"2025-07-07T06:03:13Z","timestamp":1751868193000},"page":"645","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Economic Impact of Abortions in Dairy Cow Herds"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-0352-0864","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Osvaldo","family":"Palma","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Universidad de Lleida, 73 Jaume II, 25001 Lleida, Spain"},{"name":"Department of Economics and Administration, Universidad Nacional Andr\u00e9s Bello, Santiago 7500000, Chile"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6139-0207","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Llu\u00eds M.","family":"Pl\u00e0-Aragon\u00e8s","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Universidad de Lleida, 73 Jaume II, 25001 Lleida, Spain"},{"name":"Agrotecnio CERCA Center, 191, Rovira Roure, 25198 Lleida, Spain"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4848-4732","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alejandro","family":"Mac Cawley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, Chile"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8500-1250","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"V\u00edctor M.","family":"Albornoz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Campus Santiago Vitacura, Universidad T\u00e9cnica Federico Santa Mar\u00eda, Santiago 7650568, Chile"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1093\/erae\/21.1.73","article-title":"A Survey of Markov Decision Programming Techniques Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem","volume":"21","author":"Kristensen","year":"1994","journal-title":"Eur. Rev. Agric. Econ."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sarttra, T., and Kiatcharoenpol, T. (2025). Enhancing Sustainable Herd Structure Management in Thai Dairy Cooperatives Through Dynamic Programming Optimization. Sustainability, 17.","DOI":"10.3390\/su17093894"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-1699(03)00118-2","article-title":"A Model for Simulating Rule-Based Management of Cow-Calf Systems","volume":"42","author":"Romera","year":"2004","journal-title":"Comput. Electron. Agric."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2262","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2009-2765","article-title":"Determining the Optimum Replacement Policy for Holstein Dairy Herds in Iran","volume":"93","author":"Kalantari","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5938","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2011-4258","article-title":"A Multi-Level Hierarchic Markov Process with Bayesian Updating for Herd Optimization and Simulation in Dairy Cattle","volume":"94","author":"Demeter","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7517","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2017-12980","article-title":"A Stochastic Dynamic Model of a Dairy Farm to Evaluate the Technical and Economic Performance under Different Scenarios","volume":"101","author":"Calsamiglia","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Palma, O., Pl\u00e0-Aragon\u00e9s, L.M., Mac Cawley, A., and Albornoz, V.M. (2025). Mathematical Methods Applied to the Problem of Dairy Cow Replacements: A Scoping Review. Animals, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/ani15070970"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103943","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agsy.2024.103943","article-title":"Economic Impacts of Constrained Replacement Heifer Supply in Dairy Herds","volume":"217","author":"Kulkarni","year":"2024","journal-title":"Agric. Syst."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Graesboll, K., Kirkeby, C., Nielsen, S.S., Halasa, T., Toft, N., and Christiansen, L.E. (2017). A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data. Front. Vet. Sci., 4.","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2017.00013"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"394","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2009-2352","article-title":"A Large Markovian Linear Program to Optimize Replacement Policies and Dairy Herd Net Income for Diets and Nitrogen Excretion","volume":"93","author":"Cabrera","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2342","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2007-0736","article-title":"Optimal Replacement Policy and Economic Value of Dairy Cows with Diverse Health Status and Production Capacity","volume":"91","author":"Nousiainen","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hansen, T.L., Li, M., Li, J., Vankerhove, C.J., Sotirova, M.A., Tricarico, J.M., Cabrera, V.E., Kebreab, E., and Reed, K.F. (2021). The Ruminant Farm Systems Animal Module: A Biophysical Description of Animal Management. Animals, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/ani11051373"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1016\/0308-521X(92)90107-Y","article-title":"A Stochastic Model Simulating the Dairy Herd on a PC","volume":"39","author":"Kristensen","year":"1992","journal-title":"Agric. Syst."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4683","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2011-5214","article-title":"A Simple Formulation and Solution to the Replacement Problem: A Practical Tool to Assess the Economic Cow Value, the Value of a New Pregnancy, and the Cost of a Pregnancy Loss","volume":"95","author":"Cabrera","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1439-0442.1999.00189.x","article-title":"Culling Policies in Dairy Herds. A. Review","volume":"46","author":"Monti","year":"1999","journal-title":"J. Vet. Med. Ser. A-Physiol. Pathol. Clin. Med."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106458","DOI":"10.1016\/j.anireprosci.2020.106458","article-title":"Effect of Abortion on Milk Production, Health, and Reproductive Performance of Holstein Dairy Cattle","volume":"217","author":"Keshavarzi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Anim. Reprod. Sci."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5287","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2024-25283","article-title":"Productive and Reproductive Losses Associated with Abortion in Specialized Dairy Cattle from Costa Rica","volume":"108","author":"Monti","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Puterman, M.L. (1994). Markov Decision Processes, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470316887"},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Pl\u00e0-Aragon\u00e9s, L.M. (2005, January 4). A Stochastic Model for Planning Swine Facilities. Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, Orlando, FL, USA."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pl\u00e0-Aragon\u00e8s, L.M., Flores Marias, V., and Rodr\u00edguez-S\u00e1nchez, S.V. (2008, January 7\u201310). A Simulation Model for Intensive Piglet Production Systems. Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, Miami, FL, USA.","DOI":"10.1109\/WSC.2008.4736408"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Osais, Y.E. (2017). Computer Simulation: A Foundational Approach Using Python, CRC Press.","DOI":"10.1201\/9781315120294"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3876","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.S0022-0302(06)72430-4","article-title":"Economic Value of Pregnancy in Dairy Cattle","volume":"89","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5442","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2011-4972","article-title":"A Daily Herd Markov-Chain Model to Study the Reproductive and Economic Impact of Reproductive Programs Combining Timed Artificial Insemination and Estrus Detection","volume":"95","author":"Giordano","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.4141\/CJAS09127","article-title":"Review: Feeding Behaviour of Dairy Cattle: Meaures and Applications","volume":"90","author":"Weary","year":"2010","journal-title":"Can. J. Anim. Sci."},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"e19488","article-title":"Modeling the Lactation Curve in Holstein Cows from a Dairy Farm in the Valley of Huaura, Peru","volume":"32","year":"2021","journal-title":"Rev. Investig. Vet. Peru"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100447","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atech.2024.100447","article-title":"Enhancing Culling Decisions in Swiss Dairy Farming: Introducing a Tool for Improved Replacement Choices","volume":"8","author":"Schlebusch","year":"2024","journal-title":"Smart Agric. Technol."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6216","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2011-4376","article-title":"An Economic Decision-Making Support System for Selection of Reproductive Management Programs on Dairy Farms","volume":"94","author":"Giordano","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101051","DOI":"10.1016\/j.animal.2023.101051","article-title":"Effects of Herd Management Decisions on Dairy Cow Longevity, Farm Profitability, and Emissions of Enteric Methane\u2014A Simulation Study of Milk and Beef Production","volume":"18","author":"Clasen","year":"2024","journal-title":"Animal"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Saro, J., Duch\u00e1\u010dek, J., Bro\u017eov\u00e1, H., St\u00e1dn\u00edk, L., Bl\u00e1hov\u00e1, P., Hor\u00e1kov\u00e1, T., and Hlavat\u00fd, R. (2024). Discrete Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains Enhance Predictive Modelling for Dairy Cow Diseases. Animals, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/ani14172542"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2896","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2019-16714","article-title":"A Virtual Dairy Herd as a Tool to Teach Dairy Production and Management","volume":"103","author":"Calsamiglia","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2146","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.S0022-0302(04)70034-X","article-title":"An Economic Spreadsheet Model to Determine Optimal Breeding and Replacement Decisions for Dairy Cattle","volume":"87","author":"Groenendaal","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Raschka, S., Patterson, J., and Nolet, C. (2020). Machine Learning in Python: Main Developments and Technology Trends in Data Science, Machine Learning, and Artificial Intelligence. Information, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/info11040193"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11463","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2023-24623","article-title":"Development and Evaluation of Predictive Models for Pregnancy Risk in UK Dairy Cows","volume":"107","author":"Barden","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Palma, O., Pl\u00e0-Aragon\u00e9s, L.M., Mac Cawley, A., and Albornoz, V.M. (2025). AI and Data Analytics in the Dairy Farms: A Scoping Review. Animals, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/ani15091291"},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yousaf, A., Kayvanfar, V., Mazzoni, A., and Elomri, A. (2023). Artificial Intelligence-Based Decision Support Systems in Smart Agriculture: Bibliometric Analysis for Operational Insights and Future Directions. Front. Sustain. Food Syst., 6.","DOI":"10.3389\/fsufs.2022.1053921"}],"container-title":["Veterinary Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2306-7381\/12\/7\/645\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T18:05:46Z","timestamp":1760033146000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2306-7381\/12\/7\/645"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,7]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]}},"alternative-id":["vetsci12070645"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/vetsci12070645","relation":{},"ISSN":["2306-7381"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2306-7381","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,7]]}}}