{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,3]],"date-time":"2026-07-03T09:38:36Z","timestamp":1783071516108,"version":"3.54.6"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,30]],"date-time":"2022-03-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648598400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Excellent Young Scientist Foundation of NSFC","award":["51822908"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51822908"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["20lgjc04"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["20lgjc04"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Baiqianwan project\u2019s young talents plan of special support program in Guangdong Province","award":["42150001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42150001"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Water plays an essential role in social and economic sustainable development, and the relationship between socio-economic development and water resources sustainable utilization has been an important issue in water resources management. We aim to propose a water resources vulnerability assessment index with the dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, and establish a water resources system model over the Pearl River Delta network river region based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) framework and System Dynamics (SD) model. The city of Zhongshan, which is located in the Pearl River Delta is used as a case study. The vulnerability of the water resources in Zhongshan from 2021 to 2050 is simulated in four different scenarios (normal, technical innovation, social economic improvement, and comprehensive development models). The results showed that the vulnerability in all four scenarios span three grades in 30 years, including moderately vulnerable, slightly vulnerable, and not vulnerable. Among them, similar trends were found between scenarios 1 and 3, and between scenarios 2 and 4. Furthermore, the vulnerability level in scenarios 2 and 4 was lower than that in scenarios 1 and 3. The vulnerability of both scenarios 2 and 4 decreased first and then increased, with the average values of 24.64 and 27.63, respectively. Scenario 2 experienced 7 years of not vulnerable (2034 to 2040) and 23 years of slightly vulnerable (2021\u20132033, 204\u20132050), scenario 4 experienced 5 years of not vulnerable (2032\u20132036), 21 years of slightly vulnerable (2021\u20132031, 2037\u20132046), and 4 years of moderately vulnerable (2047\u20132050). Although the vulnerability of scenario 4 was slightly worse than scenario 2, its adaptability to economic and social development, water resources, and water environment was much higher than scenario 2. Considering the extent of socio-economic development and the level of adaptability of the local water resources and water environment, the study concluded that the comprehensive development model is more suitable for cities in the network river area. In this scenario, sustainable water use and management can be made possible through policy regulation that encourages higher water efficiency, sewage reuse rate, and centralized sewage treatment rate.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/w14071103","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,30]],"date-time":"2022-03-30T21:24:42Z","timestamp":1648675482000},"page":"1103","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Assessing the Vulnerability of Water Resources System Using VSD-SD Coupling Model: A Case of Pearl River Delta"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Shuai","family":"Wei","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6533-3357","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kairong","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China"},{"name":"Guangdong Key Laboratory of Oceanic Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China"},{"name":"Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liyan","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zeyu","family":"Yao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaoyan","family":"Bai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhihe","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"926","DOI":"10.1126\/science.297.5583.926","article-title":"Water Scarcity: Forecasting the Future with Spotty Data","volume":"297","author":"Brown","year":"2002","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Tong, F., and Dong, Z.C. (2008, January 20\u201323). Water security scenario analysis: Methodology and a case study. Proceedings of the 16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symposium of IAHR-ISHS, Hohai University, Nanjing, China."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen, W., Chen, Y., and Feng, Y. (2021). Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China. Entropy, 23.","DOI":"10.3390\/e23070882"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Forth Assessment Report: Climate Change, IPCC.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511546013"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"431","DOI":"10.2112\/SI103-088.1","article-title":"Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptive Management Based on Projection Pursuit Model","volume":"103","author":"Xiang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Coast. Res."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1827","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-018-1906-8","article-title":"Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis","volume":"32","author":"Li","year":"2018","journal-title":"Water Resour. Manag."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eiar.2010.07.003","article-title":"Surface water vulnerability assessment applying the integrity model as a decision support system for quality improvement","volume":"31","author":"Mirauda","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Impact Assess. Rev."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2012WR012335","article-title":"Water availability and vulnerability of 225 large cities in the United States","volume":"48","author":"Padowski","year":"2012","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"International Association of Hydrogeologists (1994). Guidebook on Mapping Groundwater Vulnerability, Verlag Heinz Heise."},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"Huang, Y., and Cai, M.T. (2009). Methodological Guidelines-Vulnerability Assessment of Freshwater Resources to Environmental Change, United Nations Environmental Programme."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"\u017divanovi\u0107, V., Atanackovi\u0107, N., and Stojadinovi\u0107, S. (2021). Vulnerability Assessment as a Basis for Sanitary Zone Delineation of Karst Groundwater Sources\u2014Blederija Spring Case Study. Water, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/w13192775"},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"13","article-title":"Cartographie de la vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 la pollution des nappes d\u2019eau souterraine Orleans, France","volume":"4","author":"Albinet","year":"1970","journal-title":"Bull BRGM"},{"key":"ref_13","first-page":"69","article-title":"Fundamental concepts in aquifer vulnerability, pollution risk and protection strategy","volume":"38","author":"Foster","year":"1987","journal-title":"Vulnerability Soil. Groundw. Pollut."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007957229865","article-title":"A Global Outlook for Water Resources to the Year 2025","volume":"12","author":"Kulshreshtha","year":"1998","journal-title":"Water Resour. Manag."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2010.07.003","article-title":"Scale invariance of water stress and scarcity indicators: Facilitating cross-scale comparisons of water resources vulnerability","volume":"31","author":"Perveen","year":"2011","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"30","article-title":"Research progress in water resources vulnerability assessment","volume":"23","author":"Ma","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Water Resour. Eng."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"165","article-title":"Water vulnerability assessment in karst environments: A new method of defining protection areas using a multi-attribute approach and GIS tools (EPIK method)","volume":"39","author":"Doerfliger","year":"1999","journal-title":"Environ. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","first-page":"482","article-title":"Vulnerability to contamination of groundwater in urban regions","volume":"25","author":"Fu","year":"2000","journal-title":"Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2007.07.008","article-title":"A GIS based DRASTIC model for assessing groundwater vulnerability in shallow aquifer in Aligarh, India","volume":"28","author":"Rahman","year":"2008","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_20","first-page":"1569","article-title":"Groundwater vulnerability assessment in shallow aquifer of Kathmandu Valley using GIS-based DRASTIC model","volume":"57","author":"Pathak","year":"2008","journal-title":"Environ. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.3354\/cr006089","article-title":"Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Egypt to climatic change in the Nile Basin","volume":"6","author":"Strzepek","year":"1996","journal-title":"Clim. Res."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"284","DOI":"10.1126\/science.289.5477.284","article-title":"Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth","volume":"289","author":"Green","year":"2000","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1222","DOI":"10.1029\/2002WR001778","article-title":"Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system","volume":"39","author":"Fowler","year":"2003","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gui, Z., Chen, X., and He, Y. (2021). Spatiotemporal analysis of water resources system vulnerability in the Lancang River Basin, China. J. Hydrol., 601.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2021.126614"},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Zhongshan Statistics Authority (2021, May 10). The Information Network of Zhongshan Statistics, Zhongshan, China, Available online: http:\/\/www.zs.gov.cn\/main\/about\/infoview\/index.action?id=99593."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Zhongshan Water Authority (2021, May 10). Zhongshan Water Resources Bulletin, Zhongshan, China, Available online: http:\/\/www.zswater.gov.cn\/main\/open\/resource\/show\/index.action?id=36925."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-013-0496-8","article-title":"Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research","volume":"28","author":"Chen","year":"2013","journal-title":"Water Resour. Manag."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Wang, Q.F. (1995). Advanced System Dynamics, Tsinghua University Press."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Dong, Z.J. (2003). Systems Engineering and Operational Research, National Defense Industry Press."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1007\/s11213-005-4816-7","article-title":"Soft System Dynamics Methodology (SSDM): Combining Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) and System Dynamics (SD)","volume":"18","year":"2005","journal-title":"Syst. Pract. Action Res."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"210","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.029","article-title":"Theoretical considerations on the combined use of System Dynamics and individual-based modeling in ecology","volume":"222","author":"Vincenot","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"472","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2007.01.005","article-title":"Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram","volume":"17","author":"Polsky","year":"2007","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"ref_33","first-page":"367","article-title":"Study on the Water Resources Assessment Indexes System","volume":"7","author":"Zuo","year":"1996","journal-title":"Adv. Water Sci."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"340","DOI":"10.1007\/s10040-001-0185-1","article-title":"Main concepts of the \u201cEuropean approach\u201d to karst-groundwater-vulnerability assessment and mapping","volume":"10","author":"Daly","year":"2002","journal-title":"Appl. Hydrogeol."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3017","DOI":"10.1007\/s11431-009-0099-z","article-title":"A new approach to water resources system assessment-set pair analysis method","volume":"52","author":"Wang","year":"2009","journal-title":"Sci. China Ser. E-Tech. Sci."},{"key":"ref_36","first-page":"1052","article-title":"Water pollution driving forces and pollution prevention measures priority of medium\/small-sized cities in southern China","volume":"29","author":"Huo","year":"2009","journal-title":"China Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"Xiang, H.M. (2011). Research on Construction and Application of Index System for Regional Water Security Assessment. [Master\u2019s Thesis, Jinan University]."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Chen, Z.H. (2010). The Response, Diagnosis and Regulation of Water Security in Water Network Region under Changing Environment: A Case Study of Zhongshan City, Guangdong, Sun Yat-sen University. Postdoctoral Research Report."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1070","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2013.11.115","article-title":"Assessment of water ecological carrying capacity under the two policies in Tieling City on the basis of the integrated system dynamics model","volume":"472","author":"Wang","year":"2014","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_40","first-page":"73","article-title":"System Dynamics in the Ash River Basin Water Pollution Control Planning","volume":"35","author":"Chen","year":"2010","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Manage."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"314","DOI":"10.1016\/j.proeps.2012.01.053","article-title":"Water Quality Comprehensive Index Method of Eltrix River in Xin Jiang Province using SPSS","volume":"5","author":"Ting","year":"2012","journal-title":"Procedia Earth Planet. Sci."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen, Y., and Chen, W. (2020). Simulation Study on the Different Policies of Jiangsu Province for a Dynamic Balance of Water Resources under the Water\u2013Energy\u2013Food Nexus. Water, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/w12061666"},{"key":"ref_43","first-page":"318","article-title":"A Study on Water Pollution Control System in Luoyang City","volume":"43","author":"Guo","year":"1988","journal-title":"Acta Geogr. Sin."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2328","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cnsns.2007.05.031","article-title":"Water resources planning based on complex system dynamics: A case study of Tianjin city","volume":"13","author":"Zhang","year":"2008","journal-title":"Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul."},{"key":"ref_45","first-page":"92","article-title":"Concept and Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability of Surface Water Resource","volume":"29","author":"Zhou","year":"2007","journal-title":"Resour. Sci."},{"key":"ref_46","first-page":"1","article-title":"Multi-scale Water Vulnerability Assessment Research","volume":"20","author":"Xia","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Basic Sci. Eng."},{"key":"ref_47","first-page":"19","article-title":"Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Pearl River Area","volume":"29","author":"Gao","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. China Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1357","DOI":"10.1007\/s11442-015-1239-y","article-title":"Optimization research on supply and demand system for water resources in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration","volume":"25","author":"Xiong","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_49","first-page":"199","article-title":"Research on the Dynamics Analysis and Optimization Decision-Making of Water Resources Supply and Demand System in Dongting Lake District","volume":"28","author":"Li","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"ref_50","first-page":"5","article-title":"Research on the Control Measures of Water Security of Zhongshan Based on System Dynamics","volume":"37","author":"Wei","year":"2016","journal-title":"Pearl River"}],"container-title":["Water"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4441\/14\/7\/1103\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T22:46:46Z","timestamp":1760136406000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4441\/14\/7\/1103"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,30]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]}},"alternative-id":["w14071103"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/w14071103","relation":{},"ISSN":["2073-4441"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2073-4441","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,30]]}}}