{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T14:44:03Z","timestamp":1780497843277,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":96,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,26]],"date-time":"2025-07-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1753488000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"U.S. EPA and USGS and between USGS and North Carolina State University","award":["G17AC00099"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["G17AC00099"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study presents a novel approach that uses rainfall data from five dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate models under two scenarios to visualize a potential future extent of flooding in ENC. Here, we use DD data (at 36-km grid spacing) to compute future changes in precipitation intensity\u2013duration\u2013frequency (PIDF) curves at the end of the 21st century. These PIDF curves are further applied to observed rainfall from Hurricane Matthew\u2014a landfalling storm that created widespread flooding across ENC in 2016\u2014to project versions of \u201cMatthew 2100\u201d that reflect changes in extreme precipitation under those scenarios. Each Matthew-2100 rainfall distribution was then used in hydrologic models (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) to simulate \u201c2100\u201d discharges and flooding extents in the Neuse River Basin (4686 km2) in ENC. The results show that DD datasets better represented historical changes in extreme rainfall than SD datasets. The projected changes in ENC rainfall (up to 112%) exceed values published for the U.S. but do not exceed historical values. The peak discharges for Matthew-2100 could increase by 23\u201369%, with 0.4\u20133 m increases in water surface elevation and 8\u201357% increases in flooded area. The projected increases in flooding would threaten people, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy throughout ENC.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/w17152228","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]],"date-time":"2025-07-28T07:57:24Z","timestamp":1753689444000},"page":"2228","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Assessing Flooding from Changes in Extreme Rainfall: Using the Design Rainfall Approach in Hydrologic Modeling"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7507-490X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anna M.","family":"Jalowska","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel E.","family":"Line","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1600-0422","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tanya L.","family":"Spero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3969-7955","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"J. Jack","family":"Kurki-Fox","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5969-3436","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Barbara A.","family":"Doll","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1677-4292","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jared H.","family":"Bowden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Geneva M. 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