{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,4]],"date-time":"2026-06-04T16:30:39Z","timestamp":1780590639514,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,3,18]],"date-time":"2015-03-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1426636800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Erasmus Mundus","award":["Specific Grant Agreement number 2011 \u2013 1614\/ 001 \u2013 001 EMJD"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Specific Grant Agreement number 2011 \u2013 1614\/ 001 \u2013 001 EMJD"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land  use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand.  The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the \u201cno industrial development\u201d population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed) would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET) port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m3 daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m3 by 2050 according to the \u201cLAPSSET development\u201d projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the \u201cno industrial development\u201d population scenario, whereas for the \u201cLAPSSET development projection\u201d population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028). The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for the \u201cno industrial development\u201d, while the impact is expected to be similar for the \u201cLAPSSET development\u201d, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/w7031264","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,3,18]],"date-time":"2015-03-18T14:09:08Z","timestamp":1426687748000},"page":"1264-1290","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":157,"title":["Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Freshwater Resources of Lamu Island, Kenya"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Cornelius","family":"Okello","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Integrated Geoscience Research Group (I.G.R.G.), University of Bologna, Sant'Alberto 163,  Ravenna 48123, Italy"},{"name":"University of Cadiz, Pol\u00edgono San Pedro s\/n, Aulario Norte, Puerto Real, Cadiz 11519, Spain"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bruno","family":"Tomasello","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environmental Management Research Group (EMRG), Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per le Scienze Ambientali (CIRSA), University of Bologna, Sant'Alberto 163, Ravenna 48123, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicolas","family":"Greggio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Integrated Geoscience Research Group (I.G.R.G.), University of Bologna, Sant'Alberto 163,  Ravenna 48123, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nina","family":"Wambiji","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute P.O. Box, 81651, Mombasa 80100, Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marco","family":"Antonellini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Integrated Geoscience Research Group (I.G.R.G.), University of Bologna, Sant'Alberto 163,  Ravenna 48123, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,3,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2005.08.008","article-title":"Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers","volume":"80","author":"Ranjan","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1756","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2008.11.012","article-title":"Determinants of residential water demand in Germany","volume":"68","author":"Schleich","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecol. 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