{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,15]],"date-time":"2026-05-15T18:56:56Z","timestamp":1778871416398,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":60,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,31]],"date-time":"2021-12-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640908800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Commission","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["810176"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["810176"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Agronomy"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana; Denis and Schifferm\u00fcller, 1775) is considered a key pest for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Douro Region, Portugal. The phenology of both the grapevine and the pest has changed in the last decades due to the increase in temperature. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the (a)synchrony of both species. The results show that the phenological stages (budburst, flowering and veraison) undergo an advancement throughout the region (at an ~1 km resolution) under a climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP8.5) for the period 2051\u20132080, with respect to the historic period (1989\u20132015). For cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca, the budburst advances up to 14 days, whereas for flowering and veraison the advancements are up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations along the Douro River). For the phenology of Lobesia botrana, earliness was also verified in the three flights (consequently there may be more generations per year), covering the entire region. Furthermore, the third flight advances further compared to the others. For both varieties, the interaction between the third flight (beginning and peak) and the veraison date is the most relevant modification under the future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2051\u20132080). The aforementioned outcomes from the phenology models help to better understand the possible shifts of both trophic levels in the region under future climate, giving insights into their future interactions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/agronomy12010098","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,3]],"date-time":"2022-01-03T20:49:38Z","timestamp":1641242978000},"page":"98","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["European Grapevine Moth and Vitis vinifera L. Phenology in the Douro Region: (A)synchrony and Climate Scenarios"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0509-6999","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samuel","family":"Reis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CoLAB VINES&WINES\u2014National Collaborative Laboratory for the Portuguese Wine Sector, Associa\u00e7\u00e3o para o Desenvolvimento da Viticultura Duriense (ADVID), Edif\u00edcio Centro de Excel\u00eancia da Vinha e do Vinho, R\u00e9gia Douro Park, 5000-033 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9466-4606","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joana","family":"Martins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"given":"F\u00e1tima","family":"Gon\u00e7alves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"Mountain Research Center (CIMO), Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Bragan\u00e7a, Campus de Santa Apol\u00f3nia, 5300-253 Bragan\u00e7a, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Cristina","family":"Carlos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"Associa\u00e7\u00e3o para o Desenvolvimento da Viticultura Duriense (ADVID), Parque de Ci\u00eancia e Tecnologia de Vila Real, R\u00e9gia Douro Park, 5000-033 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8135-5078","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jo\u00e3o A.","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"397","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2017.11.027","article-title":"Pest management under climate change: The importance of understanding tritrophic relations","volume":"616\u2013617","author":"Castex","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. 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