{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,9]],"date-time":"2025-11-09T17:54:24Z","timestamp":1762710864276,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]],"date-time":"2019-01-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1546473600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Applied Sciences"],"abstract":"<jats:p>In most state-of-the-art Bridge Management Systems, structural condition is predicted by a homogeneous Markov chain model that uses condition ratings assigned during visual inspections. Although generally accepted, such an approach exhibits certain shortcomings, one of which is not considering the nature of actual physical phenomena that cause deterioration. To overcome this shortcoming, this article presents a framework that combines both information on condition ratings through the semi-Markov process and knowledge of bridge properties using analytical deterioration models. In this manner, and contrary to current practice, not only are the results of visual inspection taken into account, but also information such as environmental loading, as well as material and structural properties. The presented framework was implemented in the case study bridge, in which the deterioration caused by carbonation-induced corrosion was studied. Along with the implementation in the case study, the article contained a detailed overview of the subject of carbonation-induced corrosion and emphasized issues that require additional research in order to develop the framework into a comprehensive and fully applicable tool for condition prediction. Accounting for its adaptability to other material types and deterioration processes and its consideration of the historic deterioration path, the framework presents a suitable alternative to frameworks presently implemented for condition prediction.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/app9010148","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]],"date-time":"2019-01-03T11:11:56Z","timestamp":1546513916000},"page":"148","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":37,"title":["Condition Prediction of Existing Concrete Bridges as a Combination of Visual Inspection and Analytical Models of Deterioration"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Ivan","family":"Zambon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering and Natural Hazards, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter-Jordan-Stra\u00dfe 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria"}]},{"given":"Anja","family":"Vidovi\u0107","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering and Natural Hazards, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter-Jordan-Stra\u00dfe 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1674-7083","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alfred","family":"Strauss","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering and Natural Hazards, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter-Jordan-Stra\u00dfe 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria"}]},{"given":"Jose","family":"Matos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Civil Engineering Department, Campus de Azur\u00e9m, Minho University, 4800-058 Guimar\u00e3es, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1484","DOI":"10.1080\/15732479.2014.976577","article-title":"Investigation of the use of three existing methodologies to determine optimal life-cycle activity profiles for bridges","volume":"11","author":"Mirzaei","year":"2015","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Bortot, F., Zonta, D., and Zandonini, R. (2006, January 10\u201312). A bridge management strategy based on future reliability and semi-Markov deterioration models. Proceedings of the 3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, Glasgow, UK."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1007\/s10518-016-9962-z","article-title":"Damage detection of frame structures subjected to earthquake excitation using discrete walvet analysis","volume":"15","author":"Pnevmatikos","year":"2016","journal-title":"Bull. Earthq. Eng."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1189","DOI":"10.12989\/sss.2016.18.6.1189","article-title":"Wavelet analysis based damage localization in steel frames with bolted connections","volume":"18","author":"Pnevmatikos","year":"2016","journal-title":"Smart Struct. Syst."},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"305","article-title":"Prediction of the remaining service life of existing concrete bridges in infrastructural networks based on carbonation and chloride ingress","volume":"21","author":"Zambon","year":"2018","journal-title":"Smart Struct. Syst."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hallberg, D., and Racutanu, G. (2007). Development of the Swedish bridge management system by introducing a LMS concept. Mater. Struct., 627\u2013639.","DOI":"10.1617\/s11527-006-9175-z"},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"fib Bulletin 34 (2006). Model Code for Service Life Design of Concrete Structure, International Federation for Structural Concrete (fib). Model code prepared by Task Group 5.6."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"(2010). fib Model Code for Concrete Structures, Wilhelm Ernst & Sohn. International Federation for Structural Concrete."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"fib Bulletin 59 (2011). Condition Control and Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Structures Exposed to Corrosive Environment (Carbonation\/Chlorides), International Federation for Structural Concrete."},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"fib Bulletin 76 (2015). Benchmarking of Deemed-to-Satisfy Provisions in Standards: Durability of Reinforced Concrete Structures Exposed to Chlorides, Document Competence Center Siegmar K\u00e4stl e.K."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000123","article-title":"Deterioration Rates of Typical Bridge Elements in New York","volume":"15","author":"Agrawal","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Bridge Eng."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.3846\/13923730.2017.1323795","article-title":"Comparison of Stochastic Prediction Models Based on Visual Inspections of Bridge Decks","volume":"23","author":"Zambon","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Civ. Eng. Manag."},{"key":"ref_13","unstructured":"Ang, A.H.S., and Tang, W.H. (2007). Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Basic Principles, Wiley. [2nd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"663","DOI":"10.1080\/15732470701478503","article-title":"Evaluation and Bayesian dynamic prediction of deterioration of structural performance","volume":"6","author":"Wang","year":"2010","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"61","DOI":"10.1080\/15732479.2014.995105","article-title":"Bayesian assessment of an existing bridge: A case study","volume":"12","author":"Jacinto","year":"2015","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"906","DOI":"10.1080\/15732479.2016.1225311","article-title":"Bridge residual service-life prediction through Bayesian visual inspection and data updating","volume":"13","author":"Zanini","year":"2017","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_17","unstructured":"Sobanjo, J.O. (1997, January 16\u201318). A neural network approach to modeling bridge deterioration. Proceedings of the 4th Congress of Computing in Civil Engineering, Philadelphia, PA, USA."},{"key":"ref_18","first-page":"171","article-title":"Maintenance system of paint on steel bridges","volume":"49","author":"Arima","year":"1999","journal-title":"Technol. Rep. Osaka Univ."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"597","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000124","article-title":"Artificial Neural Network Model of Bridge Deterioration","volume":"24","author":"Huang","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Perform. Constr. Facil."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0887-3828(2006)20:3(261)","article-title":"Fuzzy Logic Based Condition Rating of Existing Reinforced Concrete Bridges","volume":"20","author":"Sasmal","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Perform. Constr. Facil."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"562","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000137","article-title":"Condition Assessment of Corrosion-Distressed Reinforced Concrete Buildings Using Fuzzy Logic","volume":"24","author":"Mitra","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Perform. Constr. Facil."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1080\/15732470500031040","article-title":"Optimal bridge maintenance planning using improved multi-objective genetic algorithm","volume":"2","author":"Furuta","year":"2006","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1080\/15732479.2013.866968","article-title":"Capital renewal optimization for large-scale infrastructure networks: Genetic algorithms versus advanced mathematical tools","volume":"11","author":"Rashedi","year":"2015","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ghodoosi, F., Abu-Samra, S., Zeynalian, M., and Zayed, T. (2018). Maintenance Cost Optimization for Bridge Structures Using System Reliability Analysis and Genetic Algorithms. J. Constr. Eng. Manag., 144.","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001435"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"544","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trb.2011.11.008","article-title":"A statistical deterioration forecasting method using hidden Markov model for infrastructure management","volume":"46","author":"Kobayashi","year":"2012","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Pt. B Methodol."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lethanh, N., Kaito, K., and Kobayashi, K. (2015). Infrastructure Deterioration Prediction with a Poisson Hidden Markov Model on Time Series Data. J. Infrastruct. Syst., 21.","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000242"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1080\/15732470412331289305","article-title":"Modeling of risk-based inspection, maintenance and life-cycle cost with partially observable Markov decision processes","volume":"1","author":"Corotis","year":"2005","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"783","DOI":"10.1080\/15732470902985827","article-title":"A generalised partially observable Markov decision process updated by decision trees for maintenance optimisation","volume":"7","author":"Faddoul","year":"2011","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"977","DOI":"10.1080\/15732479.2015.1076485","article-title":"Maintenance planning using continuous-state partially observable Markov decision processes and non-linear action models","volume":"12","author":"Chatzi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"287","article-title":"A New Model for Stochastic Analysis of Bridge Durability","volume":"62","author":"Puz","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Croat. Assoc. Civ. Eng."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Wallbank, E.J. (1989). The Performance of Concrete in Bridges a Survey of 200 Highway Bridges, HMSO."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Henriksen, C.F., and Stoltzner, E. (1993). Chloride Corrosion in Danish Road-Bridge Columns. Concr. Int., 55\u201360."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Schie\u00dfl, P., and Mayer, T.F. (2007). Schlussberichte zur ersten Phase des DAfStb\/BMBF-Verbundforschungsvorhabens, Nachhaltig Bauen mit Beton, Schriftenreihe des Deutschen Ausschusses f\u00fcr Stahlbeton. (In German)."},{"key":"ref_34","unstructured":"Ng, S.K., and Moses, F. (1998, January 1). Bridge deterioration modelling using semi-Markov theory. Proceedings of the Structural Safety and Reliability, Shiraishi, Shinozuka & Wen, Rotterdam, The Netherlands."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"136","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1076-0342(2001)7:4(136)","article-title":"Scheduling inspection and renewal of large infrastructure assets","volume":"7","author":"Kleiner","year":"2001","journal-title":"J. Infrastruct. Syst."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"Ma\u0161ovi\u0107, S., Sto\u0161i\u0107, S., and Hajdin, R. (2015, January 23\u201325). Application of Semi-Markov Decision Process in Bridge Management. Proceedings of the IABSE Conference\u2014Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges, Geneva, Switzerland."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"Wu, D., Yuan, C., Kumfer, W., and Liu, H. (2016). A life-cycle optimization model using semi-Markov process for highway bridge maintenance. Appl. Math. Model., 1\u201316."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"EN 206-1 (2013). Concrete\u2014Part 1: Specification, Performance, Production and Conformity, British Standard. CEN\/TC 104 \u2018Concrete and Related Products\u2019."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"Tuutti, K. (1982). Corrosion of Steel in Concrete, Swedish Concrete and Cement Institute, Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Department of Building Materials."},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Teply, B., Chroma, M., Vorechovska, D., and Rovnanik, P. (2008). FReET-D Deterioration Module Program Documentation, Cervenka Consulting."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"DuraCRETE (1998). Modelling of Degradation: Probabilistic Performance Based Durability Design of Concrete Structures, European Union. EU Project (Brite EuRam III) No. BE95-1347, Report No 4-5."},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"DARTS\u2014Durable and Reliable Tunnel Structures (2004). Project with financial support of the European Commision under the Fifth Framework Program, European Union. GROWTH 2000 Project GRDI-25633."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1002\/suco.201600066","article-title":"Performance based durability design, carbonation part 1\u2014Benchmarking of European present design rules","volume":"17","author":"Gehlen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Struct. Concr."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"523","DOI":"10.1002\/suco.201600067","article-title":"Performance based durability design, carbonation part 2\u2014Classification of concrete","volume":"17","author":"Gehlen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Struct. Concr."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"718","DOI":"10.1002\/suco.201600085","article-title":"Performance based durability design, carbonation part 3: PSF approach and a proposal for the revision of deemed-to-satisfy rules","volume":"17","author":"Gehlen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Struct. Concr."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.4028\/www.scientific.net\/SSP.259.255","article-title":"Reliability of Existing Concrete Structures Determined with Physical Models\u2014Carbonation Induced Corrosion","volume":"259","author":"Zambon","year":"2017","journal-title":"Solid State Phenom."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosenv.2011.09.077","article-title":"Path-integrated measurements of carbon dioxide in the urban canopy layer","volume":"46","author":"Kuttler","year":"2012","journal-title":"Atmos. Environ."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Andrade, C., and Alonso, C. (2001). On-site measurements of corrosion rate of reinforcements. Constr. Build. Mater., 141\u2013145.","DOI":"10.1016\/S0950-0618(00)00063-5"},{"key":"ref_49","first-page":"153","article-title":"Nosivost i uporabljivost armiranobetonskih konstrukcija o\u0161te\u0107enih korozijom armature [Bearing capacity and serviceability of reinforced-concrete structures affected by steel corrosion]","volume":"52","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Croat. Assoc. Civ. Eng."},{"key":"ref_50","unstructured":"Raupach, M. (1992). Zur chloridinduzierten Makroelementkorrosion von Stahl in Beton. Heft 433 der Schriftenreihe des DAfStb, Beuth Verlag. (In German)."},{"key":"ref_51","unstructured":"Roelfstra, G. (2000). Modele D\u2019evolution De L\u2019etat De Ponts-Routes En Beton. [Ph.D. Thesis, \u00c9cole polytechnique f\u00e9d\u00e9rale de Lausanne]."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"268","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1084-0702(2004)9:3(268)","article-title":"Condition Evolution in Bridge Management Systems and Corrosion-Induced Deterioration","volume":"9","author":"Roelfstra","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Bridge Eng."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1080\/15732470802532943","article-title":"Life-cycle performance model based on homogeneous Markov processes","volume":"7","author":"Puz","year":"2011","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mizutani, D., Lethanh, N., Adey, B.T., and Kaito, K. (2017). Improving the Estimation of Markov Transition Probabilities Using Mechanistic-Empirical Models. Front. Built. Environ., 3.","DOI":"10.3389\/fbuil.2017.00058"},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lethanh, N., Hackl, J., and Adey, B.T. (2017). Determination of Markov Transition Probabilities to be Used in Bridge Management from Mechanistic-Empirical Models. J. Bridge Eng., 22.","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0001101"},{"key":"ref_56","unstructured":"OEBB Infrastruktur Regelwerk 06.01.02 (2012). Instandhaltungsplan Konstruktiver Ingenieurbau, \u00d6BB Infra. [Maintenance Plan for Structural Engineering Construction]."},{"key":"ref_57","unstructured":"\u00d6NORM B 3302 (1954). Richtlinien f\u00fcr Beton\u2014Baustoffe und ma\u00dfgenormte Tragwerksteile, \u00d6sterreichischer Normenausschuss. [Guidelines for Concrete\u2014Building Materials and Standardized Structural Parts]."},{"key":"ref_58","unstructured":"V\u00d6Z (1985). Vereinigung \u00d6sterreichischer Zementindustrie: Zement und Beton [Cement and Concrete], Bauberatungsstelle des Vereins der \u00d6sterreichischen Zementfabrikanten und des \u00d6sterreichischen Betonvereins."},{"key":"ref_59","unstructured":"eHYD (2018, February 08). Hydrographie \u00d6sterreichs. (Das Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Nachhaltigkeit und Tourismus). Available online: http:\/\/ehyd.gv.at\/#."},{"key":"ref_60","unstructured":"ZAMG (2018, February 08). Zentralanstalt f\u00fcr Meteorologie und Geodynamik. Available online: https:\/\/www.zamg.ac.at\/cms\/de\/klima\/informationsportal-klimawandel\/daten-download\/klimamittel."},{"key":"ref_61","unstructured":"Nov\u00e1k, D., Vo\u0159echovsk\u00fd, M., and Rusina, R. (2003, January 6\u20139). Small-sample probabilistic assessment: FREET software. Proceedings of the International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP 9), San Francisco, CA, USA."},{"key":"ref_62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Andrade, C. (2017). Reliability analysis of corrosion onset: Initiation limit state. J. Struct. Integr. Maint., 2.","DOI":"10.1080\/24705314.2017.1388693"},{"key":"ref_63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"976","DOI":"10.1080\/15732479.2013.774426","article-title":"Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory","volume":"10","author":"Hajdin","year":"2014","journal-title":"Struct. Infrastruct. Eng."}],"container-title":["Applied Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3417\/9\/1\/148\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T12:23:24Z","timestamp":1760185404000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3417\/9\/1\/148"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]]},"references-count":63,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]}},"alternative-id":["app9010148"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/app9010148","relation":{},"ISSN":["2076-3417"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2076-3417"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]]}}}