{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,27]],"date-time":"2025-12-27T07:26:58Z","timestamp":1766820418441,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,22]],"date-time":"2019-11-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1574380800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Atmosphere"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046\u20132065) and long-term (2080\u20132099) were compared with the reference period (1986\u20132005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045\u20132065 and 2081\u20132099) in LMA, \u22120.63% and \u22120.73%, respectively, and in PMA, \u22120.62% for 2045\u20132065 and \u22120.69% for 2081\u20132099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046\u20132065, and to 0.27% during 2081\u20132099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos10120735","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,22]],"date-time":"2019-11-22T09:02:52Z","timestamp":1574413372000},"page":"735","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"M\u00f3nica","family":"Rodrigues","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7658-8475","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paula","family":"Santana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4940-6522","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alfredo","family":"Rocha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physics and Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, Campus Universit\u00e1rio de Santiago, 3810-093 Aveiro, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e360","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(17)30156-0","article-title":"Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios","volume":"1","author":"Gasparrini","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"358","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms1360","article-title":"Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe","volume":"2","author":"Ballester","year":"2011","journal-title":"Nat. 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