{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]],"date-time":"2026-03-02T22:51:34Z","timestamp":1772491894004,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,25]],"date-time":"2024-01-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1706140800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"European Union","award":["0753-CILIFO-5-E"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["0753-CILIFO-5-E"]}]},{"name":"European Union","award":["ALT20-05-3559-FSE-000074"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ALT20-05-3559-FSE-000074"]}]},{"name":"European Union","award":["PCIF\/MPG\/0175\/2019"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PCIF\/MPG\/0175\/2019"]}]},{"name":"European Union","award":["UIDB\/04683\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04683\/2020"]}]},{"name":"European Union","award":["UIDP\/04683\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDP\/04683\/2020"]}]},{"name":"FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["0753-CILIFO-5-E"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["0753-CILIFO-5-E"]}]},{"name":"FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["ALT20-05-3559-FSE-000074"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ALT20-05-3559-FSE-000074"]}]},{"name":"FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["PCIF\/MPG\/0175\/2019"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PCIF\/MPG\/0175\/2019"]}]},{"name":"FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UIDB\/04683\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04683\/2020"]}]},{"name":"FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UIDP\/04683\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDP\/04683\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Atmosphere"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The study evaluated the ECMWF model ability in forecasting lightning in Portugal during four fire seasons (2019\u20132022). The evaluation was made based on lightning data from the national lightning detector network, which was aggregated into resolutions of 0.5\u00b0 and 1\u00b0 over 3 h periods and analyzed from statistical indices using two contingency tables. The results showed that the model overestimates the lightning occurrence, with a BIAS greater than 1, with a success rate of 57.7% (49%) for a horizontal resolution of 1\u00b0 (0.5\u00b0). The objective analysis was complemented by the spatial lightning distribution analysis, which indicated a time lag between the two data, i.e., the model started predicting lightning before its occurrence and finished the prediction earlier. Furthermore, such analysis revealed the lightning distribution being consistent with some weather patterns. The findings of this study provide insights into the applicability of the ECMWF lightning forecast data in the context of forecasting natural forest fires in Portugal.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos15020156","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,25]],"date-time":"2024-01-25T08:44:07Z","timestamp":1706172247000},"page":"156","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"C\u00e1tia","family":"Campos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Earth Remote Sensing Laboratory (EaRS Lab), Institute of Earth Sciences\u2014ICT, Instituto de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Forma\u00e7\u00e3o Avan\u00e7ada\u2014IIFA, University of \u00c9vora, Rua Rom\u00e3o Ramalho 59, 7000-671 \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Flavio T.","family":"Couto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Earth Remote Sensing Laboratory (EaRS Lab), Institute of Earth Sciences\u2014ICT, Instituto de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Forma\u00e7\u00e3o Avan\u00e7ada\u2014IIFA, University of \u00c9vora, Rua Rom\u00e3o Ramalho 59, 7000-671 \u00c9vora, Portugal"},{"name":"Department of Physics, School of Science and Technology, University of \u00c9vora, Rua Rom\u00e3o Ramalho 59, 7000-671 \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8680-1244","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Filippe L. M.","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Earth Remote Sensing Laboratory (EaRS Lab), Institute of Earth Sciences\u2014ICT, Instituto de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Forma\u00e7\u00e3o Avan\u00e7ada\u2014IIFA, University of \u00c9vora, Rua Rom\u00e3o Ramalho 59, 7000-671 \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4457-4543","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jo\u00e3o","family":"Rio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere, I.P., Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Teresa","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere, I.P., Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1311-6291","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rui","family":"Salgado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Earth Remote Sensing Laboratory (EaRS Lab), Institute of Earth Sciences\u2014ICT, Instituto de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Forma\u00e7\u00e3o Avan\u00e7ada\u2014IIFA, University of \u00c9vora, Rua Rom\u00e3o Ramalho 59, 7000-671 \u00c9vora, Portugal"},{"name":"Department of Physics, School of Science and Technology, University of \u00c9vora, Rua Rom\u00e3o Ramalho 59, 7000-671 \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1007\/s13595-020-00933-5","article-title":"Climate Change Impact on Future Wildfire Danger and Activity in Southern Europe: A Review","volume":"77","author":"Dupuy","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ann. 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